ABC: 'Last Man Standing' & 'Malibu Country' Fall To "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.55
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Resort canceled 0.67
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.74
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.84
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.87
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.98

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With their relatively high premiere ratings of 2.0 and 2.3 for adults 18-49 on a Friday, Last Man Standing and Malibu Country looked like they might be a Friday night ratings surprise duo. Sadly for them, that surprise lasted all of 3 weeks. With last Friday's 1.4 ratings for both, they've now fallen into the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second and third episodes. It's now certain to be canceled, but it's been in the headline of this post enough times to give it a break this week. Because it's not a rookie, it's unlikely to be pulled from the schedule before its (19, thanks Dan) ordered episodes air.

With rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue both canceled last week, ABC probably won't make any more drama cancellation moves until the end of the season, but that won't prevent me from continuing to make predictions!

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • joethehobo

    Why aren’t more people watching Apartment 23 and Happy Endings? They’re the best comedies on television. And yes, I watch most of the other comedies, too.

  • omabin

    This is what ABC should do come midseason:

    Monday
    Same

    Tuesday
    Shark Tank
    Red Widow
    Body of Proof

    Wednesday
    Middle
    Family Tools
    Modern Family
    Suburgatory
    Happy Endings
    Apartment 23

    Thursday
    Wipeoyt/ Wife Swap
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Nashville

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    The Neighbours
    Malibu Country
    How to Live With Your Parents
    What Would You Do

    Sunday
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    Scandal

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Move Apartment 23 and Happy Endings over to TBS to join Cougar Town in a new comedy block. Cancel Nashville, Malibu Country and Last Man Standing. Renew the rest. Done.

  • Oliver

    I blame the tough timeslot against all 2 other single-camera comedies. I hope ABC tries them in another timeslot (e.g. 10pm on Wednesday) before dropping the axe.

    If ABC wasn’t planning on letting Apt 23 complete its 13 episode second season order then they would have cancelled it by now.

  • joethehobo

    I’m really hoping that if Malibu Country (And maybe even Last Man Standing, too) fall enough and the midseason comedies tank, ABC will renew Apartment 23 along with Happy Endings. I realize they’d have to fall a lot, but it could happen.

  • One

    You will pay for your sins America. The death of Last Resort will be avenged.

    You’ve been warned.

  • Mr Mumble

    Happy Endings has only aired 37 episodes, you’re delusional if you think the syndication gods will save it, on ABC, if it continues to get 1.4s.

  • David

    According to Krysten Ritter’s Twitter, Apartment 23 has a 19 episode order.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Happy Endings has only aired 37 episodes, you’re delusional if you think the syndication gods will save it, on ABC, if it continues to get 1.4s.”

    Til Death had only 37 episodes & terrible ratings at the end of its second season on Fox, and yet Sony was able to get 81 episodes produced in a third & fourth season. The third season aired only seven episodes, and it was *still* returned for a fourth.

    Now, who’s delusional?

  • tv#1

    Will Happy Endings really need 88 episodes for syndication? Sony only produced 81 episodes of Till Death and managed to find syndication packages for it. Couldn’t they do the same thing with Happy Endings?

  • rob60990

    “I blame the tough timeslot against all 2 other single-camera comedies. I hope ABC tries them in another timeslot (e.g. 10pm on Wednesday) before dropping the axe.”

    If it were the timeslot, then we’d see decent DVR gains. Even with DVR Happy Endings couldn’t break a 2.0 in its 2nd episode this season.

  • Tony ^_^

    “Happy Endings” and “Apartment 23″ are definitely going to be canceled…

    “Castle” and “Scandal” are both steady so I say those get another season if they hold up…

    “Grey’s Anatomy” can probably go one more season… What happens to ABC Thursdays after that is anyone’s guess… :o

    It’s too early to tell what will happen to “Malibu Country” and “Last Man Standing”…

  • Aquitar

    Although I like Nashville, they need to move that to 10 PM on Sundays when Park Avenue gets pulled off, even if it doesn’t make sense with the rest of the Sunday Night lineup. ABC could have a full 3 hour comedy night if they add Happy Endings & Apartment 23 onto the 10 & 10:30 timeslot, and see how it does there. Problem solved!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ““Grey’s Anatomy” can probably go one more season… “

    Nonsense.

    It’s the #1 rated drama in all broadcast television for original episodes (just edging NCIS so far). Unless the cast or producers want to call it quits, it will be around a lot longer.

  • Justin121

    Stupidest thing ever was the most incompatable young skewing single cams after the oldest skewing show on ABC.

    Nothing to see here until the midseason shows premiere.

  • Sel

    TBS please save my Bitch and the Happy endings like you did with my Cougars.
    Godddd why is this happening to me ;( ;(

  • Justin121

    I don’t care if Grey’s runs t0 season 15 as long as they don’t ruin it.

    Meredith Grey’s Anatomy, is what should be and always will be.

  • THE OLD MAN

    WHAT A FEAST FOR THE BEAR!

    Stuff all the birds from 666 & serve with a Park Ave Whine

    Stuff a submarine with all kinds of seafood & serve with Moosehead Lagers

  • Ricky

    @One: Agreed. ABC dropped the ball on this one, big time.

    Two games down, three to go: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-50/#comments

  • EllieMae

    Why did they mess with the casting on Last Man Standing – wrong move for me and I was a big fan- some of the flow is gone – it was such a funny show just the way it was. Especially a Freshman show just doesn’t make sense. I like it because one show of so few with some conservative views and poking humor at both sides – its funny.

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