ABC: 'Last Man Standing' & 'Malibu Country' Fall To "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.55
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Resort canceled 0.67
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.74
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.84
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.87
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.98

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With their relatively high premiere ratings of 2.0 and 2.3 for adults 18-49 on a Friday, Last Man Standing and Malibu Country looked like they might be a Friday night ratings surprise duo. Sadly for them, that surprise lasted all of 3 weeks. With last Friday's 1.4 ratings for both, they've now fallen into the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second and third episodes. It's now certain to be canceled, but it's been in the headline of this post enough times to give it a break this week. Because it's not a rookie, it's unlikely to be pulled from the schedule before its (19, thanks Dan) ordered episodes air.

With rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue both canceled last week, ABC probably won't make any more drama cancellation moves until the end of the season, but that won't prevent me from continuing to make predictions!

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Austin Lauran

    Does anybody think that the ABC and NBC execs should only air cop shows and laugh track sitcoms on their networks? That’s what CBS does and barely anybody complains about how uncreative the CBS execs are. Long story short: the CBS, ABC, and NBC execs don’t care about the quality of their shows; they only care about the ratings.

  • gustavo

    My favorite shows of ABC:Nashville,Revenge,Scandal,Grey’s anatomy,and Last man standing.

  • Mr Mumble

    @Bill, ’til Death got a 2.1 average in its second season, not great but hardly awful. It was also on Fox, that’s the Fox that kept Fringe on the air a couple of seasons longer than any other network would have done. There were other unusual factors, e.g. the writers strike.

    PS. I don’t begrudge your continual usage of using an outlier such as “’til Death” to bait desperate fans into believing there’s a chance their underperforming comedy will come back… it’s a good tactic for more clicks and that’s your job.

  • Holly

    @Mr Mumble,

    You’re guilty of a clear violation of The Gunsmoke Rule. When ‘Til Death was on, a 2.1 was awful.

  • eridapo

    Renew/ Canceled Index based on A25-54 demo. There really isn’t that much a difference. The only thing one can see is that it bolsters the renewal chances of Castle and Neighbors

    Show CI
    Don’t Trust the B— 0.51
    Happy Endings 0.61
    666 Park Avenue 0.63
    Private Practice 0.67
    Last Resort 0.72
    Last Man Standing 0.77
    Scandal 0.85
    Nashville 0.85
    Malibu Country 0.81
    The Neighbors 0.90
    Castle 0.94
    The Middle 1.08
    Revenge 1.08
    Suburgatory 1.09
    Once Upon A Time 1.24
    Grey’s Anatomy 1.41
    Modern Family 1.91

  • Joe

    “Til Death had only 37 episodes & terrible ratings at the end of its second season on Fox, and yet Sony was able to get 81 episodes produced in a third & fourth season. The third season aired only seven episodes, and it was *still* returned for a fourth.”

    Not to mention Cougar Town, which I believe had a similar number of episodes at the end of its third season and got a fourth season on TBS.

  • Joe

    “’til Death got a 2.1 average in its second season, not great but hardly awful. It was also on Fox, that’s the Fox that kept Fringe on the air a couple of seasons longer than any other network would have done. There were other unusual factors, e.g. the writers strike.”

    That was what, four years ago? Ratings have changed a lot. A 2.1 was not good at all then, especially on FOX which was a stronger network.

    But the real point of comparison is Cougar Town, which had almost identical ratings, a very similar number of episodes, and got renewed for a 4th season for syndication purposes.

  • cas

    I love Reba though!! :(

  • DamC

    Mid season schedule:

    SUN
    8- OUAT
    9- Revenge
    10- 666 Park Avenue / Nashville (new timeslot, starting the week after the Oscars)

    MON
    Same

    TUE
    8- The Neighbors
    8:30- Family Tools (Feb-Mar) / Happy Endings (Apr-May)
    9- Happy Endings (Jan-Mar) / DWTS (Mar-May)
    9:30- Apartment 23 (Jan-Mar) / DWTS (Mar-May)
    10- Private Practice (Jan-Feb) / Red Widow (Mar-May)

    WED
    8- The Middle
    9:30- Suburgatory
    9- Modern Family
    9:30- How to Live With Your Parents
    10- Nashville (Jan-Feb) / Zero Hour (Mar-May)

    THU
    8- Last Resort / Celebrity Wife Swap / Wipeout
    9- Grey’s Anatomy
    10- Scandal

    FRI
    8- LMS (Jan-Apr) / Shark Tank (May)
    8:30- Malibu County (Jan-Apr) / Shark Tank (May)
    9- Shark Tank (Jan-Feb) / Body of Proof (Mar-May)
    10- 20/20

  • Marc

    Sadly, the writing on “last Man standing” has been to political. Get off the Romney/Obama stuff already. For a show in it’s second season and has an IFFY friday time slot, the writer/director was truely an IDIOT! to go down the path that they took.

    So sad.

  • Peggy Sims

    It seems to me that Malibu Country has been chosen to be kicked around. We love the show and if ABC cancels it , we will be so disappointed. It is a good, decent show and that is the problem-if it were trashy, it would not even be considered for cancellation.

  • Cj morton

    Malibu Country will be renewed, I have faith.

  • Kaitlin Sims

    I agree with the others that like Malibu Country. It is a funny, family show and should be given a chance. Maybe a new day and time slot would help. I hope ABC considers this before dropping the show.

  • iggy agrimotor

    This at least the fourth failed revival of TGIF.

  • One @ iggy agrimotor

    Fourth? I don’t remember numbers two and three. I do remember the ’03-’05 attempt, though.

  • Dan

    @Bill – Apartment 23 has 19 episodes. 13 produced for season 2 + 6 left over Season 1 episodes = 19 total episodes and 26 total over 2 seasons. Since ABC already has a 2 hour comedy block scheduled for midseason Tuesdays, I expect Apartment 23 to air through February/March to burn through its remaining 16 episodes and be canceled in May.

  • Mike

    How is Suburgatory so highly-rated. It’s terrible! Much worse than Neighbors!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill – Apartment 23 has 19 episodes. 13 produced for season 2 + 6 left over Season 1 episodes = 19 total episodes”

    Thanks Dan, edited the post.

  • Pinkle

    I can accept the end for Apartment 23. It’s not a bad show (though it has been hit or miss with me, lately).

    I hope ABC can salvage Happy Endings. Thank God Sony and ABC are a part of the production, and the show is well-liked at the network (even though it has low ratings).

    ABC has handicapped Happy Endings to the point to where it was not ready to anchor a comedy block. Season 1, it was at 10pm and 10:30 pm. The way they were going with the show there it felt like a burnoff, plus when has a comedy been a hit at 10pm?

    Season 2, it gets the best timeslot on ABC (after Modern Family). But, only half of the episodes aired behind a new Modern Family. The remaining half of Season 2 aired on nights when it was the only first-run episode of the night on ABC, everything else was repeats, plus it was against Idol. Yet the show still pulled 2’s.

    Now, it is stuck (along with Apt 23) in between two dying, incompatible, old-skewing shows like DWTS and Private Practice, plus they are up against other comedies on NBC and Fox. Whoever came up with ABC’s Tuesday schedule needs to be fired immediately and sent to a logic class, because anyone with half a brain knows that was the worst idea ever.

    At midseason, ABC needs to move these shows to Tuesday 8PM and 8:30 PM. The Voice will be on hiatus (plus it will probably be down when it does return), and it shouldn’t do badly against Betty White and Raising Hope/Ben and Kate. ABC needs to hold The Family Tools and How To Live With Your Parents, as they are NOT ready to have a 2-hour comedy block on Tuesday.

  • Frank

    Keep Malibu Country on the air. It’s refreshing to have a show that is not written in such a trashy way. Switch timeslots with LMS or to a different day.

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