ABC: 'Last Man Standing' & 'Malibu Country' Fall To "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.55
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Resort canceled 0.67
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.74
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.84
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.87
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.98

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With their relatively high premiere ratings of 2.0 and 2.3 for adults 18-49 on a Friday, Last Man Standing and Malibu Country looked like they might be a Friday night ratings surprise duo. Sadly for them, that surprise lasted all of 3 weeks. With last Friday's 1.4 ratings for both, they've now fallen into the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second and third episodes. It's now certain to be canceled, but it's been in the headline of this post enough times to give it a break this week. Because it's not a rookie, it's unlikely to be pulled from the schedule before its (19, thanks Dan) ordered episodes air.

With rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue both canceled last week, ABC probably won't make any more drama cancellation moves until the end of the season, but that won't prevent me from continuing to make predictions!

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Xavier

    Happy Endings and Apt 23 air two or three days earlier in Canada, making torrents for those episodes available earlier than the US broadcast. I was wondering if these kind of things could be affecting ratings, and if it was even legal to do so. Didn’t the people at CityTV think airing these shows earlier could kill the shows themselves?

  • rob60990

    ^ Online viewing has zero affect on ratings.

  • OMG

    Some good news for Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue fans:

    According to TVLine, the producers and writers have indeed been given enough time to tweak the shows. The 13th episodes will indeed function as a full-fledged series finales, which means they will both get the creative endings intended by the writers and producers.

  • Ultima

    @Justin
    What is this SHIELD everyone seems to be talking about?
    It’s not even pilot season yet.

    A series set in the Marvel universe that focuses on the S.H.I.E.L.D. organization. It will probably be essentially a high concept cop drama. Joss Whedon is writer/director for the pilot.

    It won’t star any of the super heroes from the movies, but since there are currently a half dozen more movies for the series in development, there will likely be cameos and significant cross-promotion.

  • Doug

    Since their big 2004/2005 season, ABC has had a recurrent problem in launching hits out of their big hit shows. Grey’s Anatomy has never launched a hit, ditto for Modern Family, Lost and Dancing With the Stars. Desperate Housewives launched precisely one – Grey’s Anatomy. The new only show I can think of beside Grey’s Anatomy that has done better than it’s lead-in was Suburgatory after The Middle, but even that has tailed off now that it has moved to 9:30.

    To be clear, when I refer to launching a hit, I mean a show that can stand on its own. Brothers & Sisters, Castle, Happy Endings, Cougar Town, Scandal and Private Practice don’t pass that test.

    I’m a huge fan of Happy Endings and Apt 23, so I hope that ABC saves them somehow. I’m less attached to Apt 23, so I’m really hoping that Sony will step in for HE at the minimum.

  • omabin

    @Doug,

    Once Upon a Time? Revenge? The Middle?

  • JakeSnake

    I wonder if they’d try to sell Don’t Trust the B to a cable network? It’s such a shame people aren’t watching it because it’s a really funny show. If it’s not put on a cable network then yeah there’s obviously no chance in hell it’s renewed, but in terms of quality it deserves to be.

  • Nick

    @Doug

    You say that the big shows have not been producing hits, and that no show except Suburgatory is growing out of its leadin. If you think that a show has to be growing out of its leadin to be a hit, I don’t know what to say. If the networks used that logic, 90% of new shows would be canceled each year. The only show that would be renewed this year would be Guys With Kids.
    Look at the other networks’ long-running hits: CBS with NCIS & Criminal Minds, Fox with American Idol, and NBC with The Office. All four of these shows have never led into a show that grew out of it’s leadin. Only NCIS has actually led into a bona fide hit, and that was its spinoff, NCIS: LA.
    ABC is actually very lucky to have Grey’s Anatomy. It wasn’t even a huge hit until it got the post-Super Bowl timeslot.

    Also, saying that no show except Suburgatory grew out of its leadin since Grey’s, you’re wrong. The Middle shot up from it’s leadin in 2009, and Modern Family shot up from it in the same year. Also, Once Upon a Time had a leadin that ranged from 1.0 to 2.0 and it still got (and still has been getting) between high 2s and high 3s.

  • Nick

    @JakeSnake

    I wonder if they’d try to sell Don’t Trust the B to a cable network

    No cable network would want to buy Don’t Trust the B with those ratings, sorry.

  • Nick

    @Justin

    It’s not even pilot season yet.

    Wake up and smell the coffee, buddy. Pilot season starts in October.

  • Ultima

    @Nick
    Look at the other networks’ long-running hits: CBS with NCIS & Criminal Minds, Fox with American Idol, and NBC with The Office. All four of these shows have never led into a show that grew out of it’s leadin. Only NCIS has actually led into a bona fide hit

    American Idol turned House from a certain cancellation into a top tier drama.

  • Ultima

    @Doug
    ABC has had a recurrent problem in launching hits out of their big hit shows

    Launching hit shows is hard.

    Having big lead-ins can help, but in the end it really doesn’t matter – if a show has what it takes, people will find it (there are rare exceptions, like House).

    If a network can take their established hits and use them to drag other shows along to profitability (even if they never become hits themselves), that’s still a win. They could be doing a lot worse, just look at NBC during the Friends/ER era.

  • Austin Lauran

    @Doug

    Why don’t people mention Boston Legal when they talk about Lost, Desperate Housewives, and Grey’s Anatomy? Was it not considered a hit like any of those 3 shows?

  • Doug

    @Austin – No, it doesn’t. Boston Legal always relied on timeslot support and never drew good demos. It did decently in its first season thanks to airing being Desperate Housewives, but, IIRC, it was doing around a 4.0 when DH was in the 10s and 11s.

  • Doug

    @Nick – that’s not what I’m saying at all. OUAT became a hit because a confluence of factors worked in its favor, not because AFHV fed it an audience. Grey’s Anatomy became a hit first because DH delivered it a huge audience, and the audience stuck and grew. Not many people remember that GA dropped quite a bit of that DH lead-in in its first season – it wasn’t really until the post Super Bowl episodes that it began to eclipse DH. Likewise, The Middle probably had every odd stacked against it, but became a hit anyway.

    @Ultima – House is probably the best example of a show that greatly benefited from a huge lead-in, going from 2s to eventually 9s post American Idol. I think that it outdrew AI a few weeks during its peak, if I’m not mistaken.

  • Alijah

    I hope ABC DOES NOT move Nashville to Sundays and have a full night of comedies. That’s doing too much. Plus not all of their comedies are that good to do it.

  • Ultima

    @Doug
    . I think that it outdrew AI a few weeks during its peak, if I’m not mistaken.

    Nope. House’s peak with three 10.0+ episodes in 2007 were out of 13.0+ for Idol. I believe House’s highest retention was in May 2007 (a 9.2 out of a 9.4).

  • Austin Lauran

    Does anybody know which show aired in the post-DWTS timeslot during the 2008-2009 TV season after Boston Legal ended and before Castle debuted?

  • Nick

    @Austin Lauran

    Does anybody know which show aired in the post-DWTS timeslot during the 2008-2009 TV season after Boston Legal ended and before Castle debuted?

    Dancing With the Stars was between cycles during that period of time. A reality called True Beauty (Dumbest show ever. But that’s not the point) aired behind The Bachelor.

  • Nick

    @Doug

    OUAT became a hit because a confluence of factors worked in its favor, not because AFHV fed it an audience. Grey’s Anatomy became a hit first because DH delivered it a huge audience, and the audience stuck and grew. Not many people remember that GA dropped quite a bit of that DH lead-in in its first season – it wasn’t really until the post Super Bowl episodes that it began to eclipse DH. Likewise, The Middle probably had every odd stacked against it, but became a hit anyway.

    I know all this information already. Exactly how does it translate into a counter argument?

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