ABC: 'Last Man Standing' & 'Malibu Country' Fall To "Toss Up" For Cancellation Or Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.55
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Resort canceled 0.67
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.74
Scandal :| :| :| 0.82
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.84
Nashville :| :| :| 0.85
The Neighbors :| :| :| 0.87
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.98

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With their relatively high premiere ratings of 2.0 and 2.3 for adults 18-49 on a Friday, Last Man Standing and Malibu Country looked like they might be a Friday night ratings surprise duo. Sadly for them, that surprise lasted all of 3 weeks. With last Friday's 1.4 ratings for both, they've now fallen into the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its second and third episodes. It's now certain to be canceled, but it's been in the headline of this post enough times to give it a break this week. Because it's not a rookie, it's unlikely to be pulled from the schedule before its (19, thanks Dan) ordered episodes air.

With rookies Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue both canceled last week, ABC probably won't make any more drama cancellation moves until the end of the season, but that won't prevent me from continuing to make predictions!

Since Sony (and ABC) are likely to move heaven and earth to get a fourth season for Happy Endings somewhere, even with it's terrible ratings it's going no lower than a "toss up". May the syndication gods have mercy on the Cancellation Bear's soul.

Even with full season orders for this season, ABC's mediocre rated 10pm dramas Nashville and Scandal could be either canceled or renewed by the end of the season. Similarly rated Castle, already syndicated, is more likely to be renewed than canceled. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Austin Lauran

    Can we just say that the ABC execs can’t seem to launch a lot of hit dramas and sitcoms because none of the shows are cop shows and laugh track sitcoms like CBS? Almost every CBS show that’s a hit is either a cop show or laugh track sitcom, so the ABC execs should go the CBS route (It’s paid off for the CBS execs). Do you think the ABC execs should do that and stop being creative with their dramas and sitcoms?

  • Nick

    @Austin Lauran

    Can we just say that the ABC execs can’t seem to launch a lot of hit dramas and sitcoms because none of the shows are cop shows and laugh track sitcoms like CBS

    Castle, Body of Proof, Last Man Standing, Malibu Country…

  • Nick

    ^
    Also, a few failed attempts in recent years: Charlie’s Angels, Hank, Detroit 1-8-7, and Work It!

    Just because a show is a cop drama or laugh track sitcom doesn’t make it a smash hit.

  • T Strunk

    They’ve ruined “Last Man Standing.” The new liberal writers made a moderate right leaning show which appealed to people on the right and made it a big success in the first season to a wimpish left leaning show in the 2nd season. Those on the left won’t watch it because the show, shows guns and the lead character is a Republican (Tim Allen). Those on the left are turning it off because of the left bias which has been written into the story line and the replacing of the oldest daughter “Alexandra Krosney” with actress “Amanda Fuller” was really stupid.

    The show wasn’t broken so why in the world they brought in new and far left writers is beyond me and others who are no longer watching the show. They should have left politics out of the show and the left bias as well.

  • Niacast

    I LOVE SCANDAL!!!!!!!!!! Do you think it will get cancalled? really? I hope not.

  • Austin Lauran

    @Nick

    I know that. It’s just that for some reason, the hit shows that CBS has are either cop shows and laugh track sitcoms.

  • dryr

    LMS came back with an awful actor swap and retool featuring politics for the season premier… I could stand and even like it before, I can’t sit through it now.

    Reba is just too polarizing to grab a non-country music audience.

  • Chris

    I never thought it was true but it is. ABC knows how to ruin shows. LMS is DEAD! Worse, ABC will probably look at it and say “well looks like sitcoms don’t work on Fridays.” NO, they do work but when you alienate your audience to the point that they don’t feel like watching anymore despite their countless cries to your corporate website and LMS’s facebook page then yeah, sitcoms will never work on Fridays when you go out of your way to destroy them. Paul Lee, ABC president, isn’t even smart about the way he’s going about the TGIF revival. He said he wanted an older skewing TGIF. What? Wasn’t the 2003 revival older skewing and look how that ended up. Why would one follow the model of a failed attempt rather than follow the model of a successful one from the 80′s-90′s? STUPID. It’s occurred to me that ABC’s entire schedule is a shame from top to bottom. It’s a shame that Apt. 23 and Happy Endings are on a competitive night and no one watches those shows. It’s a shame that Suburgatory (and I question whether this show is hitting the desired audience) isn’t holding the retention of Modern Family. It’s a shame that The Middle doesn’t do Modern Family numbers and hasn’t gotten an emmy (not sure about the emmy but I think). It’s a shame that what could be for LMS in terms of viewership isn’t because of the new direction and showrunner and thus will lead right back into the doldrums of reality tv again on Fridays. Who the hell wants that? I’ll take a Perfect Strangers repeat for 500 Alec.

  • rob60990

    ^LMAO. rant much? Whatever LMS was doing last year wasn’t working since it premiered with a 3.6 and fell as low as a 1.5 and got moved to Fridays.

  • Martine

    ABC is officially the most boring network ever.

  • carol

    The Neighbors is HILARIOUS!!! People you gotta watch it! Castle is and has been my favorite show for quite some time now and I love it even more with Castle and Beckett together; wish more shows had the chemistry and wit that this one does.

  • Bob Saget

    I really like Don’t trust the B and Happy Endings, it sucks they’re so low rated. Hopefully we’ll get one more season out of Happy Endings maybe it’ll rise.

    Last Man Standing has sucked with the new cast change. Hopefully they cancel that show.

  • Billy martins

    Here is my opinion for next season 2013/14 fall season for ABC network is shifting there programs around next year starting with DWTS”s moving to Sundays at 8pm following once upon a time at 10pm.starting with;
    Saturday
    7til11 regular programming
    Sunday
    7pm AFHV”S
    8pm Dancing with the stars {new day}
    10pm once upon a time { new time}
    Monday
    8pm Dancing with the stars results show
    9pm castle{new time}
    10pm revenge {new time & Day}
    Tuesday
    8pm the middle{new day}
    8:30pm subuatory {new day}
    9pm modern family{new day}
    9:30pm the neighbours {new day}
    10pm scandal{new day}
    Wednesday
    8pm ~grey”s anatomy {new day} {final season}
    9pm ~{ new}~
    10pm ~nashville ~
    Thursday
    8pm wipeout
    9pm ~new~
    10pm~new~
    Friday
    8pm shark tank {~new~}
    {~new~}
    9pm Primetime who do u think u are?{~new~}
    {~new~}
    10pm 20/20

  • Drakar

    The casting changes and scripting of LAST MAN STANDING have caused quite a stir on its Facebook site and has generated a BRING BACK ALEXANDRA KROSNEY site. Comments by new Producer Tim Doyle HAVE NOT BEEN encouraging and it would appear that it is doomed to cancellation because of its foolhardy and unwanted changes. It is a shame because, if kept in its original format, it could have been a real winner. Placing it on Friday night did not help either. These days shows are not given time to develop, success is wanted NOW. With this way of thinking shows like Seinfeld and Tool Time would probably been cancelled.

  • Gwen

    Friday is not a good night for comedys. Last Man Standing and Malibu Country are good shows and they deserve another chance on another night. Nashville and Scandal are also good shows that deserved to be watched. The network just needs to find a good night and a good time slot to air them. I hope these shows aren’t cancelled but if they are hopefully it will be picked up by another network.

  • fan2017

    Get rid of Last Man Standing, it was the best new comedy last year and now its ruined… I was so looking forward to the new season and now I can’t stomach it anymore, change in the wrong direction and bad casting. Thank you Tim Doyle, keep up the good work and a lot of time slots on TV will free up.

  • fan2017

    ABC could have saved a lot of money and just not renewed Last Man Standing, they purposely changed the tone that attracted its audience in the first place, now its turning them away so it can fail?? Why bother, you should have just said we don’t like these numbers and ax it. Now the show isn’t even funny anymore. Its already been a dragged out political year can’t the audience just enjoy a light hearted comedy, I guess not.

  • cccourt

    Who believes Reba Mcentire is not almost as old as Lily Tomlin? And the mother of two teen agers? Ridiculous. They should have made HER the grandmother.

  • Michelle

    Please don’t cancel malibu country it is to early in the season. If u cancel anything cancel subogatory and Nashville and modern family.

  • jimmo

    I agree with EllieMae re: “Last Man Standing.” I preferred the original actress who played the eldest daughter. The show’s producers should give the replacement actress the pink slip, and re-hire the original actress in the role, who was kind and sweet. The actor playing the eldest daughter’s ultra-left wing ex-husband is appropriately obnoxious for that role, however. He is much less likeable than Nick Jonas, which is why he is better suited to that role, if the writers want a political foil for lead Tim Allen’s conservative Uber Dad (shades of “Archie Bunker” and “Meathead,” anyone?).

    The rest of the cast is perfect, every one of them. I am especially fond of “Kyle” and the middle daughter. Allen is superb in this turn-around role from his “Home Improvement” goofball, who was almost always bested by the wife and kiddies (and always by next-door neighbor “Wilson”). In this series, Allen is not only “right” most of the time, he is also correct. And his wife (as played by Nancy Travis) is also smart without being a harpy shrew, often coming around to Allen’s character’s point of view to present a united front against the wrong-headedness of immature offspring and their generational drifts from reality.

    ABC should move “Last Man Standing” (and the pleasant and likeable “Malibu Country” along with it) back to Tuesdays, or else try something really adventurous and move some classic-style, multicam sitcoms to Sunday evenings, when more viewers are at home after two weekend nights of partying and other activities.

    There’s nothing especially new about Reba McEntire’s latest sitcom, except her supporting players. But Reba’s got the format down pat–an age & gender-peered next-door neighbor as her sometimes antagonist, a hunky young male (for the straight female and gay male viewers), and a spunky, bright young teen daughter to whom the lead may dispense her down-home wisdom. Add to this mix an effeminate gay male “girlfriend” and Lily Tomlin spewing witticisms and a touch of anarchy, and we’ve seen all this before. But it’s still an amusing passage of time, certainly better than the ABC affiliates airing another infomercial to “pay the bills.”

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