CBS: One Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Mentalist' Or 'The Good Wife' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.72
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.76
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.93
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.91

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Sadly, we're into the broken record portion of the CBS prediction season. With all but a few of their shows now likely or certain to be renewed or canceled, we'll be slicing and dicing the prognosis of the few remaining "toss up" shows more than Iron Chef contestants.

CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled. While readers can make their predictions in the comments this week, I will try and think of a way to make this merry go round discussion a little more interesting next week.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, last Friday's cancellation of rookie sitcom Partners was absolutely no surprise to any sane person who was paying attention.

Rookie Vegas fell back to a series low 1.6 rating last week. It's week 5 ratings crash was absolutely no fluke, and it's still more likely to be canceled than renewed by the end of the season.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • CBSViewer

    I vote for The Good Wife cancelation. CSI: NY will be Renewed because it’s the perfect lead-in Blue Bloods. The Mentalist will get a second season on Sunday at 10/9c.

  • CBSViewer

    Lead-in for Blue Bloods, sorry :)

  • Angie

    Don’t think mentalist is part of cancellation

  • omabin

    I do think there is a strong chance that they premiere only two dramas next fall, despite the pattern, because I don’t think they will gain anything from trying another show on a Friday, whereas a case could be made for renewing all the three bublle dramas. Apart from H50, I don’t see any other drama that CBS could be willing to send to the Sunday/Friday graveyards (Elementary is too young for that, they would just cancel it).

    Sooo:

    Monday
    Some combination of comedies
    New Drama

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS LA
    New NCIS

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    Big Bang
    Two and a Half Men
    Person of Interest
    Elementary

    Friday
    The Good Wife/Undercover Boss
    CSI NY
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    Hawaii Five-0
    The Mentalist

  • pmill

    I REALLY hope they renew The Good Wife for a full 5th season and pair it with Blue Bloods on Friday. It seems like the perfect fit, it is an older-skewing show still delivering around 10M total viewers. Not to mention it is arguably the best network drama, one that still gets a lot of awards and nominations, so its prestige might convince CBS to keep it on for another season.

  • hammard

    I think CSI-NY will be the one to go. Even though it’s on Friday it’s been performing low for some time and with CSI Miami already gone it shows being part of the franchise isn’t enough to sustain it. It will then free up more space to move a low performing veteran show into the slot in order to burn off enough episodes for syndication.

  • Balaji K

    The Good Wife and The Mentalist will not be canceled.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    CBS doesn’t need The Good Wife anymore, I say cancel it. Keep CSI:NY and The Mentalist. MAYBE keep the the original CSI too, but if it comes down to either one CSI or the other, keep New York. The original has been on long enough.

  • CP

    DAMN IT VEGAS!!! :(

  • CBSViewer

    @ Jeff (Canada)

    The Original CSI got a 2.5 and it’s the highest rated 10:00PM Drama on CBS. It has NO chances to be canceled !

  • Autumn

    Well, surely it won’t be The Mentalist, since both Writers and other members of the Crew said that they won’t be canceled this year.

  • Eddie B.

    Please let it be The Good Wife, please, please, please.

  • AlexFan

    Well Autumn, I like the way you think but seriously if you ask both the Writers and other members of the Crew on any scripted show they would say that they won’t be cancelled :)

  • Bryan

    My money is on CSI:NY or The Mentalist to be canceled, mainly because there is nothing special about those shows when compared to the rest of their line up. The Good Wife will hang on for at least another season. It is a marquis show that wins awards (though this season has been its least satisfying).

  • Justin121

    A reasonable guess

    Friday: Undercover Boss, Good Wife, Blue Bloods.

    Sunday: Amazing Race, Mentalist, (Five-0?).

  • ToXiX

    Monday comedies are way down. Its time to phase out the Monday block for a Thursday block.

    Mon

    9 2 Broke Girls
    930 Mike & Molly

    Thurs

    8 Two And A Half Men
    830 new comedy
    9 The Big Bang Theory
    930 new comedy

    And actually pick up GOOD COMEDIES CBS. COME ON NOW PARTNERS?

    2.5 men will definitely be back next season with HIMYM likely ending as well as RoE and Friend Me being a flop on delivery is highly possible.

  • William

    I think CSI:NY is gone and either Mentalist or Hawaii 5-0 will take its Friday slot. If HIMYM ends this season and with Partners gone already does that mean they can have 1 extra drama slot or does that just go to 2 comedies?

  • Leee

    Cancel “The Good Wife” and renew “Mentalist”!!!

  • DenverDean

    ZERO chance CSI: Vegas is canceled for four reasons: 1) it’s top-rated 10 PM drama now; 2) perfect fit for CM 3) still does well in syndication in cable and 4) will be at 295 episodes at end of this season – will definitely get over 300.

    CSI: NY still has a good shot. It still draws close to 10MM viewers and has made Friday more stable and does well in syndication. I see it as a 13-episode renewal to replace new flop drama

    TGW – no good reason to renew – it’s ratings are pretty woeful.

    TM – will likely be renewed even though not a CBS produced entity.

    H50 moves to Tuesday at 10 PM. CBS should do this in January to save the time slot.

  • were123

    I think they will cancel CSI:NY, they had no regard for Miami last season, so I think they will want to push TGW for a final season to reach 100 episodes (ala Fringe), they’ll move The Mentalist to Fridays in CSI:NY timeslot, because the special it had on Friday last year scored good numbers. So CSI:NY is likely the goner here, along with Vegas.

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