CBS: One Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Mentalist' Or 'The Good Wife' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.72
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.76
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.93
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.91

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Sadly, we're into the broken record portion of the CBS prediction season. With all but a few of their shows now likely or certain to be renewed or canceled, we'll be slicing and dicing the prognosis of the few remaining "toss up" shows more than Iron Chef contestants.

CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled. While readers can make their predictions in the comments this week, I will try and think of a way to make this merry go round discussion a little more interesting next week.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, last Friday's cancellation of rookie sitcom Partners was absolutely no surprise to any sane person who was paying attention.

Rookie Vegas fell back to a series low 1.6 rating last week. It's week 5 ratings crash was absolutely no fluke, and it's still more likely to be canceled than renewed by the end of the season.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bob

    @Billy Martins

    Are you kidding? Cancel NCIS? Not on your life. I hope you were referring to another show….NCIS is their best drama for sure.

  • Nick

    CBS:

    Mon-
    8: Untitled The Brady Bunch sequel (new)
    8:30: Mike & Molly
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Untitled Vanessa McCarthy project (new)
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: CSI
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: Darkness Falls (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Two and a Half Men (final season)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Blue Bloods
    10: Hawaii 5-0

    Sat-
    8: CSI (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: Survivor
    9: The Amazing Race
    10: The Mentalist

    CSI: NY and The Good Wife for midseason.

    None of the three should be cancelled. They should be renewed as filler. CBS’s track record with midseason shows is too bad.
    As for what will be cancelled, it’s either CSI:NY or The Mentalist. The Good Wife is safe. It will get a 13 ep final season like Fringe did.

  • Barbie

    @Mateus, I’m from Brazil too! :) But budgets are always in the networks’ minds. It’s not about being a problem, it’s about optimizing it. It’s about bringing in the audience they want, at the lowest cost. If they have two shows, like they did last year with CSI:Miami and CSI:NY. Let’s say CSI:Miami brought in the audience of X+2 and cost X+5 to produce. CSI:NY, on the other hand, brought in the audience of X, and cost only X+1 to produce. However, CSI:NY aired on a Friday, where the average audience is X. And CSI:Miami airs on a Sunday where the average audience was at X+3. Which show would they choose to keep?

    Right about now, I’d call The Mentalist and The Good Wife with the audiences of X, in a night of X+2.5/3, and CSI:NY is still at its X in a night of audience X. CSI:NY probably costs X+1 to produce (but it gives a lot of syndication money), while The Mentalist costs X. The Good Wife would cost X+2, and the benefit it brings if recognition of ‘name’ in a world of cable, but it rarely even wins. So, it’s not all that great of a deal. See what I’m getting at?

  • Barbie

    @Nick, are you TRYING to kill Hawaii Five-0? It has absolutely no Friday profile.

  • Raykov

    I think The Good Wife will be renewed for a final 10-episode season.

  • Barbie

    @Raykov They should get TGW to be a summer show, keep both CSI:NY and The Mentalist. Problem soved. Geez, not that hard, then. Keep everyone happy :)

  • Mateus

    @Barbie, nice to know that you from Brazil too!! :) And yes, I understand what you explain!! Since 2009, I follow the numbers of the series, to know better the prospects about the series i like, and of course, to know which of them will be renewes or canceled. Until today i almost get it how the networks make yours counts, but you explain really well for me and now i see how could be difficult to forecast.

    Now, a person question: do you live here in Brazil, or USA??

    ps: I’m sorry for my grammar errors

  • Barbie

    @Mateus, I’ve been watching American tv shows since I was about 10, I’m 24 now. It’s hard to understand how the networks think, and sometimes they’ll drop a bomb on ya — like Unforgettable being canceled last year, only for it to be picked up (without half of the cast) just so no other network would have it — and, sometimes, they’ll make really smart and right decisions like canceling CSI:Miami and keeping CSI:NY, but I have a slight idea by now.

    And I live in Brazil. :)

  • Mateus

    @Barbie, I’ve been whatching since I was 14, now I’m 20, I hate our national programming rsrs. And I tought a smart decision too cancelling CSI:Miami and keeping CSI: NY, which is my favorite CSI.

    Hey, do you think that Law & Order: SVU will be cancel this season. I’ll be devastated … it’s the last Law & Order that survive :/

  • valezza

    TGW renewal strictly depends on whether CBS manages to find a syndication deal for that show (with price that would justify the production cost of the 5th season) or not.

    TM belongs to the WB. So TM renewal relies mostly on whether The Warner.Bros and CBS come to an agreement that would satisfy both of the sides. Should they lower license-fee? Or even give it to CBS for free? Actually they might have already done that stuff through unofficial channels. So that rumour last May about Mentalist being renewed for both the 5th and 6th seasons might not be that wrong.

  • Barbie

    @Mateus, nope, I think SVU will survive. It pulls good enough ratings for such an old show, and it’s a NBC darling. I hope Chicafo Fire will survive, since it pulls ratings that are in the .0 lower than SVU.

  • Mateus

    @Barbie, Now I’m a little more relieved, thanks! :)

  • Barbie

    @valezza, if they get syndication for The Good Wife and not The Mentalist, then it will be the goner. In the end, the more episodes they produce from CSI:NY, the more chances they have to keep profiting from it in the future. A ten season show with syndication can give them money for many years. According to this, CSI:NY has a 1.9mil deal PER episode. CBS will want to keep producing them over shows with no syndication.

  • matt

    Easy, cancel CSI:NY

  • valezza

    @Barbie
    TM is already in syndication. Since TM belongs to WB, CBS doesn’t get anything from it (but neither they have to spend money on its production costs). WB is an old and well-known partner to CBS. I don’t see any reason why wouldn’t they make some deal that could ensure TM future for the next couple of seasons. It’s not that unlikely. In fact, I think TGW has slighly less chances for its renewal if compared to TM chances. As for CSINY – keep in mind that last season CSI Miami also had quite a lucrative syndication deal. It didnt save it.

  • Nick

    @Barbie

    are you TRYING to kill Hawaii Five-0? It has absolutely no Friday profile.

    Uh, could you explain what Friday profile means?

  • Michael

    I think they will cancel CSI:NY, move TGW to Friday for a 5th and final season, and keep MENTALIST on Sunday. I also see them shifting ELEMENTARY to Sunday and making a 2 hour comedy block on Thursday.

    Monday:
    8p-HIMYM
    8:30pm–2 Broke Girls
    9p–Mike & Molly
    9:30-New Comedy
    10-H50

    Tuesday:
    8p: NCIS
    9p: NCIS:LA
    10p: New Drama

    Wednesday:
    8p: Survivor
    9p: Criminal Minds
    10p: CSI

    Thursday
    8p: Two and a Half Men
    8:30p: New Comedy
    9p: The Big Bang Theory
    9:30: Rules of Engagement
    10p: Person of Interest

    Friday:
    8p: The Good Wife
    9p: CSI NY
    10p: Blue Bloods

    Sunday:
    7p: 60 Minutes
    8pm: Amazing Race
    9pm: The Mentalist
    10p: Elementary

  • Just Desserts

    CSI: NY and The Mentalist get “final seasons”. As long as The Good Wife remains an Emmy darling, CBS is going to keep it.

  • Billy

    Everyone loves to talk about The Good Wife being this “Emmy Darling”. The truth is it gets some nominations, but doesn’t win much. I think a couple of the actors have won, but the show has never won. Most of the drama Emmys go to cable dramas. I think TGW will be gone once it has enough for syndication.

  • Barbie

    @Nick it’s an action packed show, lots of running, gunning and exploding. Fridays are for slower, lighter, procedural, and, of course, gender shows. At least that’s how I see it. But that’s my personal opinion. Hawaii Five-0 would be dead on Fridays.

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