CBS: One Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Mentalist' Or 'The Good Wife' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.72
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.76
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.93
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.91

-
Sadly, we're into the broken record portion of the CBS prediction season. With all but a few of their shows now likely or certain to be renewed or canceled, we'll be slicing and dicing the prognosis of the few remaining "toss up" shows more than Iron Chef contestants.

CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled. While readers can make their predictions in the comments this week, I will try and think of a way to make this merry go round discussion a little more interesting next week.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, last Friday's cancellation of rookie sitcom Partners was absolutely no surprise to any sane person who was paying attention.

Rookie Vegas fell back to a series low 1.6 rating last week. It's week 5 ratings crash was absolutely no fluke, and it's still more likely to be canceled than renewed by the end of the season.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Barbie

    @Michael, if they move Elementary to Sundays, they’ve just killed it. They need a show with a “loyalish” audience on Sundays, I’d think. They’d be sending it there to die.

  • Court

    I went them keep csiny place love show . I hate the show good wife.

  • Just Desserts

    @Billy

    That’s exactly the point.

  • tlh45

    I don’t know how they find these numbers, but CSI NY has done very well on Friday’s at 9 p.m. and have a faithful following. This season has been very good. The Mentalist, this year has been boring and uninteresting and I have never watched more than the advertisements for The Good Wife. CSI NY has better ratings than that show. Let them cancel The Good Wife. I really hope they keep CSI NY for a 10th season, they deserve a 200th episode and I really want to see Mac happy! By the way, they could do away with CSI Vegas…that show has gone down hill since Grissom left.

  • Rob

    I believe this fortune teller is going to be canceled because the Good Wife and Mentalist are not being canceled…

    Just because you think it don’t believe it will happen…

  • John

    @Billy. That’s true. Of course, you could say the exact same thing about Breaking Bad, Boardwalk Empire (though its Emmy wins have been for directing, not acting) and Game of Thrones. Would anyone argue that because Breaking Bad has failed to win an Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series (criminally, in my view), that it isn’t still an Emmy darling? The Good Wife remains the most critically acclaimed network show on TV (though to be honest, I think Person of Interest should have that title now), as well as the closest thing to an Emmy darling drama any network has. I think these things matter to CBS, as long as it’s remotely viable to keep renewing the show. Of The Mentalist, CSI:NY and The Good Wife, I think TGW is the least likely to be canceled.

  • Kevin

    Why do you want Hawaii 50 on Sundays, you know what happened to CSI Miami. I want to keep CSI NY and cancel the Good Wife. Unless the mentalist will find out who is Red John, this season, I highly doubt CBS will cancel that show.

    Monday
    Comedies
    Hawaii 50

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS LA
    New drama

    Weds
    The stupid amazing race or Survior
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    Bing bang theory
    Two and a half men
    Person of interest
    Elementary

    Fridays
    New drama
    Csi NY
    Blue bloods

    Sundays
    Amazing race maybe
    The mentalist
    New drama

    On my list Vegas is canceled

  • RandomCommentor

    WB takes a hit if TM doesn’t last 7 seasons due to outstanding contracts, but I think they will go for 6 even if it means giving it away for free to CBS unless the ratings pick up (unlikely in that weird time slot). They can afford to do this as WB has a ~2.5Mil syndication per EP just with TNT for TM.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Julianna M has won a Golden Globe & 2 Screen Actors Awards, Archie P has won an Emmy for supporting actress & Martha Plimpton has won Emmy for Guest Actress

    TGW has won a Peabody Award for Series

    So far, Cast & Series has 21 Emmy nods over 3 Seasons

  • Nick

    @Kevin

    Yeah, let’s put new dramas in the two death slots (Fri@8 and Sun@10) so that Hawaii Five-0 is protected. [eyeroll]

  • RandomCommentor

    @THE OLD MAN

    I’ve actually like TGW better then TM this season (TM has some lazy writing sans a couple episodes so far), but let’s be honest: TGW ratings aren’t that good, and awards generally don’t get money for CBS, and it STILL doesn’t have a syndication deal, let alone one as good as TM. From what I hear CBS is lowballing it to other networks and nobody is biting… yet.

    It might as well get a 100 EP order as CBS would take a hit without a decent syndication deal and they are somewhat desperate – but at this point it’s equally likely CBS just cuts their losses. It’s a huge wild card for them and they don’t have a lot of scheduling room next season.

  • Smart Guy

    TGW gets less “sophisticated” every year. And if nobody watches it now, why would they in syndication. Adios TGW. If they cancel TM, please let TNT pick it up?

  • toni

    ahhhhhhhhhhh!! not the mentalist!!! CBS screwed it over by moving it to sunday with football season! when it was doing great on thursday :(

  • Barbie

    @Kevin @Nick Hawaii Five-0 IS already protected because it had a syndication deal for 2mil an episode, one of the highest out there. So, it’s not a matter of trying to get syndication, CBS knows that getting it to 100 episodes (I read it got a 100 episodes deal) already guarantees them a lot of money. It’s not a show that people may buy if it reaches that. It’s already been bought. So, Hawaii Five-0 is pretty much the safest show out there. It’s TWO MILLION! CBS is all about the money.

    I don’t *want* it on Sundays. I think it should be paired up with oth NCISs on Tuesdays. Anyone who watches all shows knows it would be perfect, they have the same kind of “feeling”. It wold do great on that day. Even if it did get moved to Sunday, though, it wold still be safe, because of its syndication deal.

  • Whogaman

    In your Renew/Cancel Index, you said this: “So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven’t seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won’t help!) they’ll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It’s virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NY, The Good Wife, or The Mentalist. And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.” It said that Blue Bloods is sure to be renewed, but the afore mentioned shows have a higher rateing than Blue Bloods. So how do you figure this when the canceled Partners had a higher rateing than Blue Bloods? Just askin’.

  • bluejays

    I think they should cancel The Good Wife. The Mentalist is doing well for a Sunday slot and would likely do much better in the week if it were still there. CSI NY might go too though.

    If they do move HFO to a death slot I think it would do good on a Friday and get a final season there or maybe even another two.

    CBS are in a bit of a mess when it comes to their ten pm dramas. None, bar CSI, are doing well.

  • Barbie

    @Whogaman, Blue Bloods is very close to syndication, which is in their interest, so, they’ll get money for that, AND it’s a Friday show. Friday shows are known to be renewed with considerable lower ratings (especially demos), because younger people tend to go out on Friday night, so, demos that day are normally lower. No one pulls high demos, no matter how great the show.

  • MissJo

    @Whogaman

    You can’t compare the ratings of Partners with Blue Bloods.

    You compare drama with drama and comedy with comedy. Partners was by far the lowest rated comedy on CBS and CBS always cancel the lowest rated comedy every year so Partners was certain to be cancel.

    For Blue Bloods, they need an another season to get 88 episodes for syndication, same for HFO.

  • Ryan

    Had CBS kept TGW on Tuesdays after NCIS:LA the ratings would be better. They wouldn’t be the best but they would be FAR better than they are now. CBS should be kicking themselves right now.

  • Hugh

    CSI NY is probably the most expensive of the shows in question, my guess is they keep the other 2.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures