CBS: One Of 'CSI:NY,' 'The Mentalist' Or 'The Good Wife' Will Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.67
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.72
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.76
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.93
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.93
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.91

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Sadly, we're into the broken record portion of the CBS prediction season. With all but a few of their shows now likely or certain to be renewed or canceled, we'll be slicing and dicing the prognosis of the few remaining "toss up" shows more than Iron Chef contestants.

CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled. While readers can make their predictions in the comments this week, I will try and think of a way to make this merry go round discussion a little more interesting next week.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, last Friday's cancellation of rookie sitcom Partners was absolutely no surprise to any sane person who was paying attention.

Rookie Vegas fell back to a series low 1.6 rating last week. It's week 5 ratings crash was absolutely no fluke, and it's still more likely to be canceled than renewed by the end of the season.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Lynn

    I say get rid of The Good Wife. What a waste of air space. There are so few good adult dramas or other adult oriented shows left on TV. I bet most young people today are no different than other kids, 10, 20, 30 yrs ago….busy with school work or out with friends and not home to watch TV. How about some real entertainment and get rid of “reality (not) shows and teeny bopper garbage. Go back in TV history and reinvent some of the old popular shows?

  • Enri

    Please oh please keep the Mentalist.

  • Peter

    Why don’t you include reality shows on your index? Is the decision making for reality shows that different from other shows? When will we find out whether the reality shows are renewed? Survivor seems to be in ratings free fall, but also often wins (or comes close to winning) its time slot, even against X-Factor. Do you think it will be renewed?

  • Ultima

    @Peter
    Why don’t you include reality shows on your index? Is the decision making for reality shows that different from other shows?

    Essentially. While it is really easy to tell if new reality shows will be canceled, for verteran shows, it’s virtually impossible to do so simply based on ratings.

    When will we find out whether the reality shows are renewed?

    May, unless the network makes an early announcement (which is common from CBS and FOX and a necessity for the large audition-based competitions).

    Do you think [Survivor] will be renewed?

    Certainly.

    As long as the producers/host want to keep doing the show, it will probably stay on the air.

  • observer

    The Mentalist stays dont care about the other 2.

  • Peter

    @ Ultima– thanks for the response.

  • Eliza

    Have one plea – stop changing days and times for programs.

    and keep Blue Bloods (my favorite program). Cancel Good Wife and keep the Mentalist.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Lynn
    “How about some real entertainment and get rid of “reality (not) shows and teeny bopper garbage.”

    The fact that you just posted this nonsense in the CBS section of renewal/cancellation made me spit out my cereal laughing.

    CBS is certainly not the network for “teeny booper” programming nor does it have a particularly large “reality” show footprint compared to the other networks.

  • simsalabim

    CSI & Mentalist are boring, they should cancel both and go for fresh dramas instead.

  • dryr

    BB is cancel material as well no reason to keep another dying show to save it as a lead in. TGW is too critically acclaimed and close to syndication and the mentalist is safe.

  • Rob R

    CBS will move The Good Wife out of its prime position on the schedule before they cancel it. It is still frequently in the Top 20 in Total Viewers and almost always the Top 25. That still matters a little, because CBS has figured out how to monetize some of that 25-54 audience.

  • omabin

    @Justin121,

    That is exactly the reasoning I have been making the past weeks. And based on that and on their recent experiences, I say it would be way more wise for CBS to keep the third of the 3 bubble shows (whichever one it is… personally, i think it’s csi ny) than to try and premiere a new show on friday yet again.

    This being said, I think Bill will find some happy with CBS later in the season. The situation does not appear to be that clear to me. With H5O ratings seeming to increase (and I think that they will do even more so during winter when it does not face revolution) and with the ratings for elementary not stable yet, I think CBS situation could change even further.

  • Herb Finn

    So, will CBS produce all 21 episodes of VEGAS ordered, or cut the episode count some more?

    Why the network doesn’t test running shows in different slots to see how the numbers might be – Say 5-0 on Tuesday or Friday, Vegas on Monday or Sunday,etc is beyond me.

  • Niceguy2210

    They should get rid of TGW. The story premise has pretty much been told in seasons 1 & 2, and what left is a vehicle for more left-wing liberal bias.

  • Diane

    When will football over runs quit impacting Sunday evenings? Will it stop in the spring, and will CBS wait that long to make a decision? I would love to see The Mentalist on another night and/or time slot.

  • Philip2

    The regular season ends on December 30, 2012. After that there will be weekly playoff games and the Super Bowl until February 3, 2013.

    Both TGW and TM will have enough time from February to May to show their true potential or lack thereof. Considering that it’s probably a close call this year, CBS might wait until mid-May to make final decisions.

  • eAbyss

    Damn you bear, don’t eat Vegas!
    Put it down right now!
    Bad bear!
    Bad bear!
    I got a nice juicy CSI:NY for you…

  • gerry

    csi new york is outta here. its been proven by multiple moves that the good wife audience will follow it wherever it goes. therefore even on friday, it will rate higher than csiny

  • Andy

    You people don’t know what your talking about. The Good Wife is a great show and the ratings are not that bad! Oh boy, I forgot viewership does not count any more. I guess I don’t count since I am over 50 and don’t count either!

  • Hattie

    I think they’ll cancel CSI and give TGW a final 13 for closure. The ratings aren’t that bad, plus it’s been on the bubble for years and the network refuses to part with it. Methinks it deserves a final chance.

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