CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Andy

    Hart of Dixie will be renewed, no matter what. It’s cheap and does well online. Beauty and the Beast, well, may not get another season, and will be canceled just like The Secret Flop was canned last year. 90210 should be dumped. The storylines are dreadful.
    PS: Emily Owens is really good. After a rocky start, I didn’t think I would like that show so much.

  • CBSViewer

    Hart of Dixie will be Renewed for, at least, two more Seasons (for syndication), 90210 will get a 13-Episodes Final Season but Beauty & the Beast is dead except if the CW cancels Nikita (Ah Ah ! :) )

  • TvAllDay

    You cancel my Nikita i swear i’ll cut somebody.

    I feel bad for Emily Owens. HELLO its Justin FREAKIN Hartley!!!

    Renew 90210 & Hart of Dixie.

    I tried giving Beauty & the Beauty a try, but the episode freezed early into the first episode so i gave up. Won’t be sad to see it go.

    Supernatural & Arrow looking good.

    So indifferent to TVD. I hate the show as a whole (have for 2 years) but i don’t wanna see the few ppl i still like out of jobs.

    My Gossip Girl is almost over.

  • israelCD

    Renew HART OF DIXIE, cancel BEAUTY AND THE BEAST and EMILY OWENS !

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Renew Nikita for half a season, and 90210 for half a season. Cancel Emily Owens, renew the rest for full seasons.

  • Tony ^_^

    I think “Hart of Dixie” will be renewed regardless of what happens to the other shows. It’s on Tuesday and I doubt The CW would risk trying to premiere a new show on that night (especially considering how bad “Emily Owens MD” is doing.

    For midseason, I say “Beauty and the Beast” moves to Friday (if its ratings fall) so that they can premiere “Cult” after “The Vampire Diaries.”

  • spike

    are Jared and Jensen even signed for another season of Supernatural yet?

  • William

    I understand the rules of syndication and whatnot, but what network would buy Nikita if new episodes get terrible ratings? i’m a little confused

  • hammard

    I think Beauty and the Beast will definitely go (at around this time last year Secret Circle was pulling a 0.8 and Ringer was doing a 0.7, and I can’t see B&TB stabilizing later in the year).
    Then 90210 will depend how the mid-seasons shows do to fill a gap in their schedule. Personally I think at least one of them will be renewed (if I had to guess I’d say Carrie Diaries over cult) and with the terrible ratings for Gossip Girl they won’t bother with a final season for 90210.
    I’d say Hart of Dixie will stay for syndication purposes, even if it has to be burned off on Friday with Nikita.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I understand the rules of syndication and whatnot, but what network would buy Nikita if new episodes get terrible ratings? i’m a little confused”

    Any show can be profitable in syndication, given the right price.

  • Romeo Yotat

    Cancle Hard Of Dixi Renewed Beauty and The Beast

  • Mika

    Not many people watch Nikita and it has 0.37.
    Beauty and the Beast has more audience and it’s toss up between cancellation or renewal.
    Emily Owens has more audience than Nikita too and it’s certain to be canceled..??
    Weird.

  • Jamie

    Renewed: The Carrie Diaries, 9O21O, Hart of Dixie, Arrow, The Vampire Diaries

    Canceled: Emily Owens, M.D.

    No idea: Cult, Beauty and The Beast

    @Spike

    A very good point. But I think they’ll renew their contracts.

  • Justin121

    I say all 3 get renewed.

  • CrystallBall

    I’ve been thinking, if they launch at least 3 new show like they does each year and since HoD is likely to hold better than BaTB and 90210, their schedule next year could be like :
    TCD/New
    New/HoD
    Arrow/SPN
    TVD/New
    ???/???

    Assuming the Carrie Diaries does well enough, the question will be : what are they gonna do on friday ?

  • tjw

    @Andy,

    “Hart of Dixie will be renewed, no matter what. It’s cheap and does well online.”

    [citation needed]

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Renewed: The Carrie Diaries, 9O21O, Hart of Dixie, Arrow, The Vampire Diaries

    Canceled: Emily Owens, M.D.

    No idea: Cult, Beauty and The Beast”

    So you’re counting on no ANTM at all during the regular season?

    Because, unless the CW does that, they’ll have to cancel another one of their Fall dramas in addition to EOMD and BATB to renew The Carrie Diaries.

  • Justin121

    The question is:

    Does Emily Owens stop at 13 to make room for Cult? Any scenario all CW shows run full seasons?

  • Percysowner

    @spike Jared and Jensen have renewed for seasons 9 and 10, so that’s not an issue.

  • Tom

    I wonder what the fallout from renewing all those low rated shows will be on the few higher rated CW shows. Relatively speaking, the CW simply isn’t an entertainment destination for most viewers. It’s the network of last resort. That has to have a negative effect on shows like Arrow and TVD. Neither one of them are masterpieces, but I believe they’d do better just by being on another network. So, in the long run, it may actually be hurting the CW to perpetuate the long list of low rated shows on its schedule.

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