CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Erin

    Jared and Jensen are signed through season 10 assuming it gets renewed to season 10. So we are likely getting a season 9 since the ratings have gone up. The question is whether season 10 will be the finale.

  • hammard

    @Justin121
    I think if they move one show to Friday, don’t run any ANTM and cut back on repeats\reality shows, they could do.
    But they won’t, Emily Owens new ratings aren’t worth the cost compared to airing say repeats of Arrow or Vampire Diaries or putting in cheap reality programming.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I say all 3 get renewed.”

    Only way that happens is if Cult & Carries Diaries fail AND there’s no ANTM at all during the regular season.

    Possible, but it’s drawing to an inside straight.

  • JJA

    You have to admit, the above chart looks really funny. Those 4 happy little faces at the top next to Nikita (and its mere .37) might as well be saying “ha, ha …. suckers!!”

    Seriously, I suspect 90210 will be canceled. The comparison to OTH and GG for a partial final season isn’t applicable. OTH had relatively good ratings. As for GG, the CW probably banked on increased ratings due to its final season buzz, which clearly did not happen. They won’t make the same mistake twice.

    Still too early to tell if HOD and/or B&TB will go, but they both may go.

  • Brandy

    TJW, Deadline said it would be renewed last season based on these.

  • Ardnaskela

    My predictions:

    Hart of Dixie – likely renewed
    Nikita – ReNeWED :) !!! * I hope so *
    Emily Owens M. D. – canceled * I haven’t seen any episode of it yet and I’m not going to, but the preview on youtube didn’t look good and many people tell that isn’t a good show..*
    90210 – renewed for final season.
    Beauty and the Beast – I assume it will be canceled,
    I think BATB is quite a good show, better than TSC, maybe for me that’s why the plot is more… such I like ;) * heh*

    Regards ;)

  • gustavo

    The status of Nikita must be drunk:Has just 0,37 and it’s smiling.

  • ToXiX

    Renewed

    Nikita (final season)
    Hart Of Dixie
    Cult
    Arrow
    Supernatural
    Vampire Diaries

    Cancelled

    90210
    The Carrie Diaries
    Emily Owens MD
    Beauty & The Beast
    Gossip Girl (ended)

  • Brandy

    I’m going with Emily Owens,Beauty,(even though I really like it),Cult,Carrie Diaries cancelled,90210 renewed for a short final season,Nikita possibly renewed for final & fourth season(though CW could surprise us),?HoD renwal depending on how Cult,Carrie Diaries do,how Beauty does in spring,and how strong the pilots but I think and hope its gets renewed..This way,CW can premiere 3 new shows in fall,one Midseason and pickup cheap filler or cheap reality filler as backup for Midseason.

  • hammard

    @Brandy
    But didn’t they also said that the total viewers would mean that Harry’s Law would be renewed by NBC for at least a 13-episode season?
    It’s always dodgy when they guess at external factors because we can’t see them (unless you know of some press pack for online views on the CW?)

  • Michael

    This year the CW renew/cancel index is kinda boring. It’s like Mark Pedowitz waits to the very last second to make a move lol….

  • gustavo

    Until last year i was watching on this network:OTH,GG,90210.Now OTH is gone and GG and 90210 i stopped watching.I can care less of this network.

  • Derek

    Does anyone think that CW ending its Friday lineup would be a good idea? I mean, they ended Sundays a few years ago? Would it be smart to end Fridays and restart Sundays (with the right programming) because Sunday is a higher HUT night than Fridays which could benefit the CW… just a thought.

  • tjw

    @Brandy,

    But the ratings last year justified renewal. Or, at least, it was a tossup between Hart of Dixie and Secret Circle is there any evidence other than an obscure reference in a Deadline column. The only remark I found was this:

    “Hart Of Dixie has been very strong in online viewing, and Nikita is a big international seller for the CW’s sister studio Warner Bros TV.”

    No evidence, no links, just the same assertions that people on these boards constantly make. You’ll forgive me if I ignore unfounded assertions in favor of actual ratings that have been shown to actually correlate with a show’s renewal.

    /And I like Hart of Dixie, I just don’t like when people throw around claims as though they’re facts.

  • janus

    @Bill Gorman,

    Bill, what is your opinion of Marc Berman? He seems to be a big time retentionista. Isn’t he suppose to be a professional at this? For example he seems to have some idiotic axe to grind at Supernatural saying it should be cancelled because there is not enough retention from Arrow.

    Supposedly he has been sniping at SPN for years. Pretty stupid. Your site rightly shows on a CW basis it’s rock solid. How can he be so off? And why would anyone pay attention to the fool?

  • Bern

    1. Nikita and HOD are going to be renew
    2. 90210 is a 50/50
    3. B&TB and Emily are going to get cancelled
    5. Cult and Carrie if successfull above shows get cancell except Nikita and HOD
    5. Arrow renewed

  • Jamie

    @BILL

    It was reported that ANTM will air in the summer. But I guess they could do what they did this season.

    Also, couldn’t they hold 9O21O’s final season until mid season…

  • cas

    I feel it would be amazing if they finally canceled ANTM.

  • herpderp

    90210 gets canceled, or at the most 13-ep final season saved for mid-season or next summer.
    HoD and BatB renewed and moved to Fridays. TVD moved to 8pm on Thursdays, premiere a new show, say, Amazon at 7pm. Leave Wednesdays alone, they’ve got a winning combination there. Move Nikita to Mondays at 8pm. Premiere new shows in the rest of the slots.

  • dddddddddddd

    Why exactly does 90210 need another , albeit, shortened season to wrap up the series? Its ratings are crap and it’s way past its expiry date! It’s only about 7 episodes in so that leaves another 15 episodes left for the season. That should be more than enough episodes to wrap up whatever recycled storylines they have going on.

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