CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

-
CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Billy martins

    Here is how the CW network shall work their shecdule for next season 2013/14 here is my opinion first is shuffle Nitika,90210,to mid season to give them there final season in January 2014 & there untimate rest in they summer of 2014. & for the reminder of the year shall be like;
    Monday
    8pm vampire dairies {new day}
    9pm Arrow{new}
    Tuesday
    8pm{new}
    9pm{new}
    Wednesday
    8pm America”s next top model
    9pm {new}
    Thursday
    8pm Hart of Dixie {new day}
    9pm Emily Owens MD {new day}
    Friday
    8pm B&TB {new day&time}
    9pm supernatural {new day} final season.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Cancel Hart of Dixie.

  • T

    With the slight (yet meaningless) uptick in ratings for EO last week, I’ve been imagining crazy scenarios where it actually gets saved. (I’m a fan, but I’m not delusional. I know this is beyond unlikely.) But say for example, it continues to build its audience by small amounts. Meanwhile CW is losing Gossip Girl regardless. If they then also cancel 90210 instead of giving it a short season, if Beauty and the Beast loses its audience, and if Cult and Carrie Diaries flop even worse, that would be five shows they’d need to replace on top of EO.

    OK, ridiculous, I know. But CW ratings make it so fun.

  • Dan

    Nikita will get renewed to reach syndication and 90210 will be renewed for a final season. I’d be shocked if those two were cancelled in May 2013, but both will surely be gone by May 2014.

    Hart of Dixie will probably be renewed since CW rarely ever cancels a drama after 2 full second seasons. (However the shows that have gotten canceled after 2 seasons in the past Reaper and Life Unexpected were after 2 short seasons).

    Beauty and the Beast will inevitably be canceled since CW typically axes two out of their three low rated fall dramas (Emily Owens and BATB) and Arrow is already a shoe in to be renewed.

    ITs too early to tell for Carrie Diaries and Cult but I assume that at least 1 will be renewed and Cult will take BATB’s slot at midseason.

    Emily Owens may get a few more eps or CW may just shut production down like ABC did with 666 Park Avenue and Last Resort but my guess is all 13 episodes will air.

  • rune

    Actually the doctor in EOMD is the one who looked & act like a real doctor whereas in HOD who just looks like some member of a cheering squad who keeps on flunking her subjects.

  • vcoolwater

    I don’t think HOD is sure shot for renewal. Shows ratings go down in the Spring, plus who knows if the triangle might drive viewers away. They already casting a new doctor who might be a love interst for Zoe.

    Plus we still don’t know how well HOD or BATB are doing in online viewing and international viewership. Since these factors are important for CW. We should wait for more information before we jump to conclusion

  • Freyja

    @Janus

    First, off it’s Marc Berman no one takes that douche seriously, he has always been a douche and had it in for SPN. I think he is jealous that the leads are better looking than he is ;) Cause why else would he have that much hatred for a show lol

    We will be in for a renewal and I suspect we will stay here for another two years, Wednesday night is stable enough for the CW they can focus on the other nights.

    I would hope Mark does early renewals this year at least for VD, Arrow and SPN

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, what is your opinion of Marc Berman? He seems to be a big time Retentionista. Isn’t he suppose to be a professional at this? For example he seems to have some idiotic axe to grind at Supernatural saying it should be cancelled because there is not enough retention from Arrow.”

    The guy self-anointed himself “Mr. Television”.

    He runs a website that got 93,000 page views in the last month. (FYI, we had 7.1 million)

    The people have spoken, and in this case, correctly.

  • janus

    @Bill,

    LOL! Mr. Television! Feyla is right–he is a douche. It’s obvious, Bill, that you guys run rings around him.

    About SPN…other than laughing I was just amazed how off Berman was in his analysis.

  • janus

    @Freyja–Yes for SPN…season 9 a lock and season 10 very, very likely. And a final season 11 is quite possible if everyone agrees to go for making SPN the longest running north american sci-fi/fantasy show.

  • Jared

    I actually watch all 3 of these CW series but I doubt Hart of Dixie is in danger of cancellation. HoDs audience continues to stay extremely steady episode to episode. The fact that it seems like a pretty inexpensive series to produce is also in its favor. The real question is if HOD is renewed..what will it be paired with next season? To my knowledge the CW doesn’t have anything in development that one could say would be a perfect pairing with HoD.

    At this point I wouldn’t be upset if the CW decided not to renew 90210. It has more than enough episode left this season to wrap it up nicely for longtime fans like myself. But most likely the CW will order a final send off season of 10 episodes like they did with GG.

    B&TB seems like the obvious choice for cancellation but I will say the series is most improved as far as quality goes. Sure the pilot was HORRIBLE..but every episode since then has gotten significantly better. Hopefully the CW feels the same way and will give it another shot next year..possibly on a different night.

  • Jamie

    If The Carrie Diaries performs well this Spring I could see a Hart of Dixie/Carrie Diaries pairing next Fall.

  • Bruno

    Am I only the one who thinks that HOD is going to be renewed anyway? 0.6/0.5 looks really good to me.

    Quick question: is Beauty and the Beast doing better than The Secret Circle so far (aired 5 episodes)?

  • Lisa

    Nikita and Gossip Girl don’t interest me and Emily Owens is annoying. I have no plan to watch these shows in the future. Beauty and the Beast bored me. I found it uninteresting and the male lead is fugly so I stopped watching it. Hart of Dixie is a fun show and I look forward to it each week. Arrow is interesting enough for me to keep watching. I’m all in for the Vampire Diaries and Supernatural is my absolute fave. I swear I live for my Sam and Dean fix.

  • JJA

    I think Carrie Diaries will initially be “hit” for the CW. The pilot has gotten mostly good reviews, and there will be some interest since it’s a Sex & The City prequal.

    Unfortunately, it’s being produced by the same people that produce Gossip Girl. We already know how quickly Gossip Girl declined in quality after just 2 seasons.

    I’m seeing this same decline in quality happen now to Hart of Dixie. Season 1 was really good, but season 2 is getting silly. Again, HOD is made by the Gossip Girl people.

    Note to CW: avoid the Gossip Girl people.

  • halloween

    Josh Schwartz factor, Hart of Dixie survives…CW cannot upset Mega CW Producer Josh Schwartz since he produces half their lineup Gossip Girl, Hart of Dixie, Carrie Diaries and Cult are all his babies

  • Nick

    CW 2013-2014 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: Hart of Dixie
    9: The Carrie Diaries/ Meridian Hills (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Selection (new)

    Fri-
    8: 90210 (10 episode final season)/ Cult
    9: Nikita (full final season)

  • Tessa

    I can only imagine the amount of hate Nikita will receive after some or all of these shows get cancelled. It already gets enough shots from the Ringer and TSC fans. This show is the Sanjaya Malakar of the CW. :D

  • hammard

    @Bruno
    No, it’s worse. TSC 5th episode had a 0.8 on October 6th, on November 11th (the nearest episode to now last year) it still had a 0.8.

  • Zach

    I think HOD will be renewed and kept on Teusdays. The CW won’t want to restructure the whole start of the week. Though Carrie Diaries could stick around on Mondays. 90210 needs to go.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures