CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ray

    1)i hope HoD will get renewed and hopefully they will just canceled the i’m-sick-and-tired-already-series aka 90210 (i think this show is stupid and absolutely hopeless). give give 2 more extra episodes and warp up this series!!

    2)about Cult and TCD, i guess one of them will survive or maybe both of them will be renewed (i want Cult to be renewed but i think it will TCD instead) XD.

    3)ANTM will be moved to summer so that leave one spot for new show there.

    4)B&B likely to be renewed for short season 2 (i doubt about it but who knows right?)

  • Vance

    @Tessa, that Sanjaya Malakar reference makes me feel nostalgic…

    It still doesn’t change the fact that I want American Idol cancelled though. It has long since overstayed its welcome IMO.

    To be on topic, I predict that Hart of Dixie will be renewed, and that Beauty & The Beast will be cancelled if it falls any lower than 0.6.

  • brian I

    The only show i watch on this network is Emily Owens.

  • PeterMazz

    @Bill Hey bill!! Is there any chance that the CW airs ONLY 13 episodes of Nikita this fall and then, the others 9 episodes could move for summer?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill Hey bill!! Is there any chance that the CW airs ONLY 13 episodes of Nikita this fall and then, the others 9 episodes could move for summer?”

    This season? I’d be shocked.

    For Nikita season 4 to be scheduled in some funky way, like partial summer, run all together without repeats in Spring 2014, or something else? Wouldn’t shock me.

  • Kavyn

    I still think EO will get a full season order.

    I also think it might be smarter for the CW to cancel EO and 90210 by the end of the season, if TCD/Cult flop to cut those too, and move Nikita and HOD to summer. Just mass-exodus. I know it’s pricey but there’s no way they’re making a profit right now. Mass-Exodus can be good, they seem to get fairly decent ratings for their premieres (Arrow/BTB getting 1.3-1.4), and maybe it’s what they need.If they can get maybe three or so hits then the following season they can fill up the gaps and hopefully regain themselves as a network. The action/sci-fi stuff is really working for them and it’s a good idea to stick with that genre.

    I personally think BTB needs to go too, but if it fits with the theme of their shows it might be smarter to keep it. Pair it with SPN for the Kreuk factor.

  • Wright

    Renew TVD,SPN,Arrow,Nikita,HOD and Cult. Cancel the others. Even though Cult hasn’t premiered yet it is destined to be a hit just because of Matt Davis.

  • Ardnaskela

    Do you think that TVD is gonna have 5 seasons or more than 5 seasons?

  • taylor

    @billy martins , thats a horrible lineup TVD and arrow should not be paired together there the hightest rated show’s they should be leading for other shows on other nights. and MONdays would kill TVD!!

  • Just Desserts

    Beauty and the Flop gets canceled. Nikita and 902010 get their final seasons.

    I remember Hart of Dixie was in the same three-way last year and you know how that ended?

  • James

    Monday
    The Carrie Diaries
    90210 (10 eps.)/Meridian Hills

    Tuesday
    ANTM(Till Nov.)/The Hundred
    The Selection

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    Embrace

    Friday
    Hart of Dixie
    Nikita

  • easy

    I can see Beauty getting a 2nd and even a 3rd seasons. The show has held up better than the critics and bashers said it would have. No other show has received so much attacks and yet continued to get better ratings than expected. It is a good show, a combination of Police,Military and Science
    action all put together. Kristin does a exquisite job. Hope for her and cast and crew to have more success in the future.

  • PeterMazz

    This is my dream schedule for Fall 2013 (a little silly but…)

    Monday:
    8:00 – Beauty & The Beast
    9:00 – Wunderland

    Tuesday:
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie
    9:00 – 90210/Cult

    Wednesday:
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – Supernatural

    Thursday:
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – Embrace

    Friday:
    8:00 – The Secret Circle S3 (Season 2 on spring 2013) ;)
    9:00 – Sleepy Hollow/The Selection

    SUMMER:

    Mondays and fridays repeats….

    Tuesday:
    8:00 – The L.A Complex
    9:00 – Breaking Pointe

    Wednesday:
    8:00 – Nikita (Final 4th season)
    9:00 – Copeland Prep

    Thursday:
    8:00 – Oh Sit!
    9:00 – New Reality

  • John

    @Tom (first page) I think that’s right. Along with Elementary, Arrow is actually my favorite new show of the season. But it wasn’t even on my radar going in, as I missed the first episode and only watched it when my sister (a The Vampire Diaries devotee) encouraged me to watch it. I haven’t watched anything on the CW or any of its predecessors since Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and I’m probably not alone in that regard.

  • Marc

    I really hope 90210 gets renewed I love it…sure last night wasnt the best episode but its still good and i hope it fets renewed for a full or last season, Gossip Girl suck since a while and it got renewed for a finale season.

  • Anthony C.

    CW 2013-2014 DREAM SCHEDULE

    MONDAYS:

    8PM- Hart Of Dixie
    9PM- The Carrie Diaries

    TUESDAYS:

    8PM- Sleepy Hollow (New Series)
    9PM- Supernatural

    WEDNESDAYS:

    8PM- Arrow
    9PM- The Tomorrow People (New Series)

    THURSDAYS:

    8PM- The Vampire Diaries
    9PM- Embrace (New Series)

    FRIDAYS:

    8PM- 90210 (Final Season)
    9PM- Reign (New Series)

    MIDSEASON:

    The Selection (New Series)
    Electropolis (New Series)

    CANCELLED:

    Emily Owens M.D
    Beauty And The Beast
    Cult

    TRICKY SITUATION:

    Nikita*

    * could get a Late Spring/Summer order for syndication purposes or it’s just cancelled

    SUMMER:

    America’s Next Top Model

  • Bruno

    Thank you, Hammard :)

  • Big Dick

    Really sorry to see Emily Owens cancelled. It’s the best show on the CW and only one of two that I watch with The Arrow, being the other.

  • Tiffany

    Hartof Dixie barely (and controversaly) got renewed for season 2. Why would the CW want 2 more seasons of mediocre at best ratings? The show is stupid and getting worse. 90210 should have enough time this season to wrap up all their (stale) storylines to leave fans with an ending – why bother renewing it for a short final season when Gossip Girl’s ratings are horrible? If this new Mark guy is supposed to come in and save the network shouldn’t he get rid of the dead weight?

  • B_VO

    “Real time TV” days are over. The audience that the “low rated” shows are targeting –simply watching everything online. Your audience just went digital, that’s all. Instead of wasting the budget on new shows, simply make count the online results. There are many ways to profit from online watching, but none of them are currently used by any network.

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