CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ann

    Program Ratings average for women 18-34
    1. The Vampire Diaries 2.08 certain renewal
    2. Arrow 1.13 certain renewal
    3. Beauty And The Beast 1.03 toss up (only 50% from TVD)
    4. Hart Of Dixie 0.95 certain renewal
    5. Supernatural 0.86 likely renewal (average 76% from arrow)
    6. 90210 0.82 likely renewal
    7. Gossip Girl 0.8
    8. Emily Owens, M.D. 0.6 certain cancellation
    9. Nikita (F) 0.33 the syndication gods must be crazy

    Carrie Diaries seems a flop waiting to happen
    Cult toss up

  • James

    CW DREAM SCHEDULE 2013-2014

    Monday
    The Carrie Diaries
    90210/Reign(new)

    Tuesday
    The Hundred(new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People(new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    Embrace(new)

    Friday
    Hart of Dixie
    ANTM/Nikita(midseason)

    Midseason:

    SUMMER!!!
    Monday
    The Carrie Diaries repeats
    new reality or imported Canadian drama

    Tuesday
    Copeland Prep (new drama)
    LA Complex

    Wednesday
    Oh Sit
    new reality

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries repeats
    new reality

    Friday
    HoD repeats
    Nikita

  • Brandy

    Tiffany ,have you looked at Nikita’s ratings? Much worse late season two and now season three?But you know why it’s still on?syndication!If HoD gets renewed,that will also be a reason.Plus HoD may have mediocre ratings but it’s stable while most of the other shows decline big and fall below it.Example:last three weeks of last season,HoD was the THIRD highest rated show and getting better ratings than all but VD,SPN and had the best ratings of the new shows and lost the least viewers during the season of almost cw shows.Also, deadline says HoD does well online and Mark really about that-part of the reason Ringer and SC were cancelled was due to low online viewership & Mark also said when he renewed LA Complex for season two that it did well digitally.Right now,HoD is doing better thannGG(final season so it barley matters),90210,Nikita,& Emily Owens MD -that’s a good chunk of cws lineup that HODs mediocre ratings are rating better than.Syndication,DVD sales,Netflix also make CW money.

  • Tom

    @ Bruno Another way to look at it is that The Secret Circle didn’t drop to a 0.6 demo until it’s 18th episode. The series then scored three consecutive 0.5 ratings before going up again to a 0.6 for its finale.

  • whizzer

    Yah there’s the Josh Warts no-x-factor reigning at CW; most if not all of his non-sense shows would stay for awhile no matter how shameful the ratings are.

  • Kyle

    I think it might be:

    Renewed: Hart of Dixie, Cult, Vampire Diaries, Arrow, 90210 (Short Finale)
    Canceled: Beauty and the Beast, Emily Owens, Carrie Diaries

    I think Supernatural might be canceled, but not due to ratings just expense and possibly cast fatigue. I hope Supernatural continues but it is now the oldest show on the network.

  • s0303

    they should just cancel 90210…they gave gossip girl a short final season and hardly anyone is watching…same would probably happen with 90210…they need to try batb in a new timeslot in jan and see if it can maintain a 0.5 or 0.6 on another night…if it can, then renew that…hart of dixie is not going anywhere, no matter how bad it is…

  • Mickey

    @Kyle

    I think Supernatural might be canceled, but not due to ratings just expense and possibly cast fatigue. I hope Supernatural continues but it is now the oldest show on the network.

    Both Jensen and Jared have already signed on through season 10.

  • Dan

    If CW doesnt cancel Emily Owens its likely they will order additional eps so it can pair nicely with HOD until May. Its Not getting a second season but If CW wants to avoid a fall cancellation until May more eps is the best EOMD can hope for.

  • Erin

    @Kyle

    Adding to what Mickey said, the new showrunner has said that the arc he’s working on now is a 3 season arc. Things are really set up there for season 10 to be the final season.

  • shouichi

    believe me, whatever shows that airing on CW, except for a story adaptation from novel (like tvd)/ comic books (like arrow) WILL get a bad bad rating. okay. except for SPN

  • Ryann

    Hart of Dixie will be renewed as it’s very consistant
    90210 needs to end as it’s gotten boring and predictable
    Emily Owens is so poor ratings wise, it’s a good show but it should be cancelled.
    The Carrie Diaires should be cancelled and Nikita should move to the summer schedule because it was getting 800k – 1.2mil viewers with a .3 and the occassional .4
    So theres 5 shows not going on the fall schedule (including Gossip Girl) There’s so many shows that sound really good that The CW is looking at so hopefully they’ll pick up more new series.

  • Ryann

    Oh and Beuaty and the beast should either be cancelled or moved to Fridays

  • Chelsea

    Why Nikita is safe with its lowest index ? That one is a horrible show, I don’t get why it’s airing for so long.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I don’t see Cult getting renewed. Based on the shaky, confused premise and the cast, I say it “dies very badly”.

    Have no idea what The Carrie Diaries will do, however.

    I do think BATB will end up with the same ratings as Hart of Dixie – which you spelled “Heart of Dixie” by the way in paragraph two. :-)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Chelsea: As explained often here, Nikita is an “anomaly”: a show with horrible ratings which nonetheless was renewed for another season. The only logical reason is that the studio has decided to give it away to the CW and make it up in syndication.

    The likelihood is – or at least the studio presumably believes that – Maggie Q is big in Asia, so the show will do well there in syndication – and as a well-done action show will possibly do well elsewhere as well – enough to justify another two low-rated seasons.

    I’m fine with that, since I love the show – it’s the best action show on any network with the most fun cast.

  • Tiffany

    @ Brandy

    I did not mention Nikita because Bill’s post was not about Nikita. If you want to talk about syndication, Hart of Dixie would need to go four seasons (88 episodes). My point was that why new president Mark would give Hart of Dixie two more seasons of terrible ratings when it barely got renewed for season 2 and the ratings this season are terrible. That it’s ratings are stable at barely mediocre for the CW is not an achievement. It is also not an achievement to do better than Nikita, Gossip Girl, Emily Owens and 90210. If Mark wants to get this network out of that seat in the bathroom then he needs to cut all the dead weight and just cancel all five shows or do Nikita’s season as late in the spring as he can to run through the summer to reach 88 episodes (yes I do see the point of one more season of Nikita for syndication). Otherwise with all these low rated shows, I don’t see how the network can continue to make a go of it or see why they even had Mark replace Dawn if he continues to allow these low rated shows to run on and on.

  • Kaio

    @Tiffany
    So B&TB too.

  • Nikki

    In my opinion all 3 should be cancelled. Their ratings are terrible.. they gave heart another chance and it hasnt picked up or gotten better time to cancel it. Emily Owens was dead since the beginning cancel it no questions asked. 90210 should of been cancelled last year, it wasnt holding its own in ratings then and this season just got worse time to cancel it. And Beauty should be cancelled because its not pulling in ratings like they expected and its got the golden spot on the CW, besides Emily Owens its ratings have been laughable and the worst on the betwork time to let it go.

  • Dan S

    It’s a given EOMD is doomed & I can’t see it getting a full season order. Word on its cancellation should be coming any day now. HOD & 90210 are likely safe leaving BATB at the mercy of the bear. Truthfully a wholesale cleaning of the CW’s lineup should take place next year. Lose the deadweight including Nikita or move it to summer for syndication purposes. Unless a show can maintain a bare minimum of 0.7 it should be considered meat for the bear.

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