CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Tom

    Cult hasn’t aired an episode yet some of you already have it cancelled/renewed/rescheduled. If you like to pursue fantasies, why not just watch OUAT?

  • Tiffany

    @Kaio

    No, I would not cancel Beauty & The Beast yet. It is a new show that is performing better than all but three on the network. Hart of Dixie (2 seasons), 90210 (5), Gossip Girl (6), Nikita (3), and Emily Owens (1) all perform worse. I’m going to wait and see how the ratings stabilize before I form an opinion on renewal or cancellation. I think the ratings have stabilized at a “should be cancelled” level for the other shows I have listed especially as all except Emily Owens have multiple seasons.

  • Tom

    @ Tiffany “Stabilize” isn’t the correct term to apply when describing a low rated show like B&B. Try “bottomed out”. B&B dropped to a 0.6 in three episodes. And, for what it’s worth, the number of viewers is still declining. That’s probably due to the return of Burn Notice. Shows on the CW do not suddenly burst forth in the ratings. They merely stagnate. B&B definitely fits that description.

  • Tiffany

    @Tom
    To me “stabilize” is the right word. “bottomed out” is what I interpret as the worst rating for an episode of a show since ratings do fluctuate (however marginally) week to week. But that’s a moot point I suppose. Whichever word you want to use I think that Beauty and the Beast has only gotten one week of bad (as compared to the other shows I listed before) ratings. I just want to see how it does for a month or two more before I would say it should be renewed or cancelled. The bottom line is that I think they should definitely renew The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, and Supernatural for the 13-14 season and maybe Beauty and The Beast. The rest of the shows should be cancelled (except Nikita if Mark P. wants to syndicate it since it’s close then do that late spring/summer run I mentioned). I’m reserving all judgement on Cult and The Carrie Diaries until they are at least on the air.

  • hmyers

    I love Heart of Dixie, one of the major reasons is there is nothing else like it on TV right now, so I hope it gets renewed. I am enjoying Beauty and the Beast and Emily Owens MD, although I realize neither will likely be back next year. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights are all have shows on the CW that I enjoy.

  • POIFanatic

    @Richard: “I don’t see Cult getting renewed. Based on the shaky, confused premise and the cast, I say it dies very badly”.

    Confused premise aside, the cast consists of the frickin’ awesome Robert Knepper (Prison Break’s T-Bag), the adorable and talented Alona Tal (Jo from Supernatural) and Matt Davis (Alaric from TVD). So, genre fans will definitely be interested in it. I just want the show to be good and succeed since I love Alona and Knepper.

  • POIFanatic

    CW has to cancel Emily Owens and 90210. GG is ending anyway.

    See if Beauty stabilizes above 0.7 by the end of the season and renew it. I absolutely hate this show (just like I hated Grimm), but it has potential to succeed in the long term. Its a paranormal procedural.

    Renew: Supernatural, Arrow, TVD and HOD.

    Nikita is a variable. Lets see what the CW will do to this show.

  • Melanie

    I think 90210 coming back for a short season will perhaps depend on how Carrie Diaries does. Let’s say that the CW keeps its (woeful) girl targeted shows on Mondays — maybe HOD, maybe 90210, maybe Carrie Diaries and focuses its pilot development on a ‘new’ Tuesday night and perhaps trying (yet again) to launch a new show after TVD. I would give HOD the edge over BATB in that scenario, especially if Carrie tanks.

  • Lainey

    I’d be surprised if we don’t see HART OF DIXIE around for a while. I love this show, and it’s a great throwback to the old “WB days”. It’s fun and doesn’t take itself too seriously, it’s cheap to make, people love Rachel Bilson and the ratings aren’t bad. I’ve always said HOD is a solid “filler” show for CW and I bet it will stay that way for many seasons.
    When it comes to 90210- please, for the love of semi-DECENT television, have some balls and CANCEL 90210. Make this season it’s last. It is so soooo beyond awful. Don’t beat a dead horse anymore. It may not have even the tiniest shred of diginity left, but lets not make it a complete embarrassment to the network. Take a chance on pushing BATB for a second season (depending on Carrie Diaries and Cult’s numbers anyway). DO NOT bring 90210 back for even a short “farewell” season. This would be a detrimental mistake to the network. I, like most of the show’s former viewers said “farewell” to it at the end of season 3 when any relatively believable story line came to screeching halts. I promise- no one is going to be outraged.

  • kevin

    It’s wierd how emily owens is getting cancelled, when it’s actually increasing in ratings and this week even beating hart of dixie. I think 90210 should be cancelled.

  • Randy

    If they were smart, they would call of them.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    POIFanatic: I do like Knepper whenever I’ve seen him, like in the Hit Man movie. But he can’t save a bad premise. Matt Davis is good too. But I still think the total cast doesn’t impress.

    Worse, the premise is just confused and complicated. I think it will be another Last Resort in terms of ratings – except lower because it’s on the CW. :-)

  • Jarrod

    Let’s be honest here: Arrow viewers managed to follow onto Supernatural during the premiere (and mostly since it has continued) due to the same target audiences. So chances are that The Carrie Diaries (which also shares the same target audience) will push up 90210’s ratings at 9:00 after it airs. The Carrie Diaries will be it’s lead in, so it won’t shock me if 90210 gets a boost for a week or so. It’s ratings this year are extremely inconsistent, so the chances of it getting a renewal are 50/50. However, I think that if The Carrie Diaries does well that it could push up 90210.

  • whizzer

    Oh pls HOD’s Rachel Bilson is so not love by everybody if it always & continues to have awful/shameful ratings – go figure!

  • Lu

    I say they keep B&B, Kirstin is a lot better than the girls in the other shows :)

  • Justin121

    CW could do partial seasons / time share for several series.

  • SnakeTheCritic

    @ Richard Steven Hack, Agree about Cult.

    Renew
    Supernatural – Final Season
    Vampire Diaries –
    Nikita – Final Season
    Arrow
    Hart of Dixie
    The Carrie Diaries – I believe this to be a winner. If they can keep away from soapTV issues ala GG.

    Cancel
    90210
    Beauty and The Beast
    Emily Owens MD
    CULT

    Summer
    ANTM

  • Bizarro

    Nikita will not be shown next television season till the summer. The CW would be stupid to show it anytime during the year except the summer. Carrie Diaries probably won’t last since it has a poor lead in that had 3 shows cancelled in a row and its on one of the CW’s worst nights. Cult we will see, they might put it in the death slot if Emily doesn’t get the back 9 or thursday or friday at 9. Beauty and the Beast might be this years HOD if it retains 0.6’s and gets 0.7’s and increases almost every week it has a good chance of getting renewed. It is way too early too tell if Beauty, Hart, or 90210 will get cancelled. We will have to wait till March next year to have a better decision factor.

  • Jazmin

    Oh for God’s sake!! Carrie Diaries isn’t even started yet, and there are people who are already canceling it!!, nobody here is objective, not even the moderators.

  • Ricardo

    Well, last year CW had one series above 1.0. Now they have three.

    If they keep going with the genre shows and forget the teen dramas (or, if The Carrie Diaries is successful, put them only on Monday), maybe they can grow even more in the ratings.

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