CW: Under What Scenarios Would '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie' Or 'Beauty & The Beast' Be Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.37
Emily Owens, M.D. :oops: 0.50
Gossip Girl final season 0.51
90210 :| :| :| 0.64
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.98
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89

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CW dramas The Beauty & The Beast,  Hart Of Dixie and 90210 are all "toss ups" for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season.

Here are the cancellation and renewal scenarios for each of them:

  • 90210: If it gets what has recently become a typical short final season for "end of life" CW shows, it gets renewed. Otherwise, it's ratings indicate certain cancellation.
  • Heart of Dixie: If its ratings stay even with or above Beauty & The Beast it gets renewed, mostly because its a second season show. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • Beauty & The Beast:  If its ratings stay above Hart Of Dixie, it gets renewed. If 90210 gets canceled, it gets renewed. If neither of those two things happen, it gets canceled.
  • All 3: For each spring drama (Cult or The Carries Diaries) that gets renewed, an additional one of those first three will need to be canceled. However, if the CW schedules America's Next Top Model entirely in the summer, it would open up another Fall slot, and remove the need to cancel one more of those shows.
All those scenarios might be overly optimistic for the existing shows if all the CW public chatter about more development resources produces more than 3 new hours for their Fall 2013 premieres. I discount that likelihood, simply because premiering more than three hours of new Fall shows is probably beyond the marketing resources of the CW, but it's not zero.

Emily Owens, M.D. is certain to be canceled.

How can Nikita with absolutely "look away" bad ratings be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brian

    Kinda thinking they time-share 90210 and ANTM on Fridays (one in the fall, one in spring). A new Monday would not be a bad way for the CW to start over. It’s not like what they’ve done has been working for them.

  • JAY

    So how have u guys found out about all the new pilots for the CW. Is there a link u guys can provide? I’m curious….

  • spence29@hotmail.com

    Nikita is CW version of CHUCK, it does better that 90210 and HOD internationally.
    Have people forgotten CW loses money on almost all its shows. All about syndication.

    They should be announcing CULT schedule soon ? I’d guess Emily’s Slot.

  • were123

    I really hope Cult doesn’t premiere on Tuesdays, but at this point it’s the most likely scenario, considering that Carrie will be on Mondays with 90210, Arrow/SPN combo works well on Wensdays, and Nikita is not moving away from Friday. I think the only chance it has is that they move B&TB to either Tuesdays at 9PM or Fridays before or after Nikita, so Cult could air after TVD. However, that doesn’t seems to be the case. I really, reeeally hope it does well, because the premise is strong and the trailer got me excited, but if it premieres on Tuesdays at 9PM, it could suffer the fate of Ringer, Emily Owens, and many others shows that pulled so incredibly low rating at that timeslot.

  • Kelly

    Well, Emily Owens will definitely be canceled and honestly, I think Hart Of Dixie will also be canceled. Beauty and the Beast has more viewers and just seems like they type of show to be renewed.

  • Kelly

    @easy, I agree. Beauty and the Beast is a decent show and far better than some of their other shows. I’m pretty much betting that it’ll be renewed. It has a good fanbase, decent ratings and a good story that can easily be transformed into an even better story.

  • sofia

    Honestly “Beauty and the Beast” should be Deleted because it’s a show with Nasty actors who can not stand in front of a camera and then has a rating of 0.6 / 2 too shabby! Idem for E.O. G.G. 90210, Nikita!

  • Kris

    I’ve gotten addicted to Beauty and the Beast. It plays well to the 18-49 women set. I think the writing level is on par with a show like “Charmed”–which did get syndcation and ran 8 seasons. So far, the ratings have been on par or exceeded Hart of Dixie. I’d much rather see 90210 cancelled than renewed, if it means BatB won’t get another season. After Smallville ended I was only watching 1 CW show: The Vampire Diaries. Now,I watch Arrow, TVD and BatB. Hope they will all be around next year. Fingers crossed!

  • martine

    The CW is inching up…a little. That said, they need to cancel Nikita. Its bringing them down. But they will likely keep B&B. They will likely cancel Hart of Dixie, and probably keep 90210, although who knows why.

  • martine

    @ Sofia; That is very interesting grammatical structure. I have no idea what you are trying to say, but whatever shows you watch must be using small words.

  • CULT? FOR REALS?

    OK..wait; Is this for real? Cult is about tv producers who investigate the fans of their show because their fans copycat the made up crimes on their show? LOLOLOLOL!!!!! Thats the worst idea I have ever heard of in my life!!!! First of all; if people tended to imitate tv shows then cop shows would have been of the air long ago. Secondly, why don’t they simply let the cops investigate? Why should a tv writer investigate? Its not like writers know much about reality. But mostly if it happened once; OK, But if the fans often copied the show, then it would get pulled of the air after the second time. But mostly what a crap idea. THATS going down.

  • Jason50

    Yeah, I don’t have high hopes for Cult either but if there’s any network where it could get at least a small following and have a chance it’s the CW. I thought BATB would be DOA but it picked up a small group of viewers that are keeping the show just barely above water and giving it a chance for renewal if those numbers hold the rest of the season. It’s a big if, however.

  • a p garcia

    if each show gets averages a .2 or less until May.

  • Guest

    CANCEL NIkITA… It isn’t fair to other shows that got cancel for low ratings and Nikita is still on the air?! CANCEL!

  • halloween

    Why can’t the CW air good shows..they take no risks and just hire pretty faces…bad shows=low ratings

  • Jason50

    @Guest- Although Nikita’s my favorite show on the network, I can’t argue with you there. Logically it should’ve been cancelled last year but I guess CW needs that syndication revenue. This year TVD makes its minimum syndication episode order, next year will be Nikita(if it’s not cancelled this year); and if the network is looking that far ahead, HOD would be the following year then Arrow possibly after that if the network is even in business by then.

  • Jon

    I still have a feeling Emily Owens is going to continue to grow an audience and save itself by years end

  • Kevnsync

    Cancell Emily Owens.mammie is way too talented to be in this turkey.i tried 90210 and it should have left with melrose which was a better show.heart of Dixie is good because Jamie king is as stunning as lemon as she was on the runway super.

  • Tracy

    Biggest mistake last year cancelling secret circle. Should have still kept HOD. Could make it all work this year knowing that GG ends. My lineups could have worked=Monday 90210 hart of Dixie. Tuesday gossip girl cult. Wednesday America’s top model thursday TVD TSC. Friday supernatural arrow and Monday midsession 90210 the Carrie diaries.

  • Jessica

    Renewed: The Carrie Diaries, 90210, Arrow, The vampire diaries

    I dont care about the rest !!

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