NBC: 'Whitney' Won't Save 'Guys With Kids,' It'll Be Lucky To Save Itself

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 20th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 18, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.67
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Whitney :| :| :| 0.76
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.77
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.91
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.92
Chicago Fire :| :| :| 0.96
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.97
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The New Normal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
The Office final season 1.15
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.72

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Before Whitney premiered, there were a surprising number of our commenters counting on it to "save" Guys With Kids by boosting its ratings. That always seemed to be a bit of hopeful thinking, and after just a 1.4 premiere rating for Whitney, and no improvement for Guys With Kids, that hope should be laid to rest (among the sane). In fact, that premiere rating lands Whitney at the low end of the "toss up" range. The only question now is whether the show can save itself.

With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU converging, their prognosis may have to converge too. I'm currently giving SVU a more hopeful future because its a veteran show, that's already syndicated on USA, but it's also expensive, and airs at 9pm where there are more viewers watching TV. I may have to make both "toss ups" next week.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Data

    Isn’t Parks and Recreation doing about the same as The New Normal? And since its already well in the range of syndication numbers (thus being more profitable) why is it only a likely renewal whereas The Normal is a certain one?

  • CP

    I just realized I don’t watch a single thing on NBC. Hurry back Community!

  • Tony ^_^

    While “Whitney” premiered below expectations, will it be renewed if it can keep that 1.4 rating?

    It’s doing a bit better than “Animal Practice” and Wednesdays have always been a bad night for NBC. So maybe a 1.4 isn’t that bad…

  • ToXiX

    Nbc cant settle for 1.4′s on Wednesday when Mon & Tues are way up from last year.

    1.7-2.0 is acceptable.

  • William

    Everything above Grimm should be yanked. Can’t wait to see Hannibal and how it does.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Isn’t Parks and Recreation doing about the same as The New Normal?”

    No, TNN has done 12% better than P&R this Fall.

    “And since its already well in the range of syndication numbers (thus being more profitable) why is it only a likely renewal whereas The Normal is a certain one?”

    I’d be very surprised if P&R wasn’t renewed, but the line between likely and certain renewal is pretty arbitrary. Fact is, almost no shows in the “likely renewed” category are ever canceled, and those are typically older, expensive shows that have OK ratings but have either gotten too expensive or the cast decides to call it quits.

  • Mr Mumble

    Guys With Kids, Whitney and Up All Night are dead shows walking. They require a miracle to come back.

    The New Normal is 50/50 as the mid-season scheduling will be far harsher.

    Up All Night managed 2+ ratings last year in the 8pm hour on Wednesdays. Crazy fans thinking 1.3-4s are acceptable this early in the season need their heads examining. Community was only given a 13 episode order despite being close to syndication and beating a 1.6 average this time last year!

  • Justin121

    Why so quick?

    I bet both Whitney & GWK get renewed.

  • Data

    @Bill: Okay, thanks. One more question: Jennifer Salke of NBC recently said that the network wants to change its brand of comedy, indicating that they may cancel a lot of their low rated comedies at the end of the season (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/14/nbc-comedy_n_2129796.html). Since both The Office and 30 Rock have already been officially confirmed to be in their final seasons (and I don’t see Up All Night going anywhere) I assume she is referring to cult shows like Community and Parks and Recreation.

    Do you take such comments into account in your predictions?

  • Scott

    To be honest, I thought that a Whitney lead-in would boost Guys with Kids, much like the time the Mockingbird Lane pilot boosted Grimm, but GWK is done.

    Revolution’s drops are concerning, and must have a huge budget, how low would Revolution have to go to be cancelled?

    NBC should probably order more episodes of Grimm and Parenthood, since Grimm has already aired 12 of its 22 episodes, and Parenthood only got 15 ordered to begin with, and both of them are solid performers

  • buttondiet

    Whitney’s ratings for the first episode are the same as last season, so unless NBC can replace it with something more successful I doubt Whitney will be cancelled.. unless it drops more as the season goes on of course.

  • Max Vrany

    @Data, in short, no. I’ll let Bill explain if you want the long answer.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Do you take such comments into account in your predictions?”

    Max Vrany is correct, I never listen to what networks say.

    Although in this case, “they may cancel a lot of their low rated comedies” doesn’t contradict my prediction methodology.

    I’m counting on them to cancel their low rated comedies (and dramas)!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Revolution’s drops are concerning, and must have a huge budget, how low would Revolution have to go to be cancelled?”

    If the season ended today, NBC would certainly be renewing scripted shows that were at a 1.7 rating, and possibly a 1.6 rating.

    That threshold will probably drop by another tenth (or more) in the Spring.

    So, that low.

  • Austin Lauran

    Does anybody think that the ABC and NBC execs should only air cop shows and laugh track sitcoms on their networks? That’s what CBS does and barely anybody complains about how uncreative the CBS execs are. Long story short: the CBS, ABC, and NBC execs don’t care about the quality of their shows; they only care about the ratings.

  • gustavo

    The only shows i like on NBC are Chicago Fire and Whitney.

  • Ricky

    At least RVN is still the top scripted show for NBC…which is awesome!

    Two games down, three to go: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/comment-page-50/#comments

  • THE OLD MAN

    FINAL FAREWELL

    The bells tolled as both Mama’s and Papa’s Dancing Bear sang “Animal Practice In My Soup!”

    And Soop Gnat C bellowed “The Bear Has A Good Meal!”

  • Gregg

    Networks are in business to make profits, not Art. The more (desired) viewers, the higher the price of advertising, the more profits generated.

    Occasionally, profits and Art converge (MASH, Cosby Show, Cheers, etc.). Most times, they don’t.

    When profits are high enough, networks sometimes “pay for” Art (Friday Night Lights, The Good Wife, first season of Hill Street Blues).

  • TVDude

    I have a feeling shows like Whitney could actually be renewed by May. It’s tough to say really.

    In January, Go On and The New Normal will follow Off Their Rockers. I bet both shows averages will plummet, which will bring down NBC’s average.

    If Whitney holds firm while all these other shows fall, miracles can happen. That’s a big “if”, but it worked last season. Whitney’s premiere rating was on par to its ratings last spring, the question is how far will it dip from here. I suppose that the same thing can be said about Guys with Kids.

    I’m also predicting that The Voice will be down in the spring vs the fall. We’ll have to wait and see.

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