Bubble Watch: 'Whitney' Doesn't Look Good; 'Don't Trust The B----' Looks Worse

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 25th, 2012

Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don't Trust The B---- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn't as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret's out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.

Whitney's ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn't want to jump to judgement last week and with this week's even more horribly rated episode (haven't seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney's prospects. So I've left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren't any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won't be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to "likely cancellation" immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.

Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It's the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.

So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It's not that I'm trying to rattle Nikita's fans' cages -- it's just the ratings are so bad I find that I'm not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won't go any lower than "on the bubble" even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.

Speaking of "on the bubble" the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A "Save That List" petition on Facebook probably won't make a difference. But it couldn't hurt!

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    I gave up on Apt. 23

  • Dennis

    SVU will likely renewal? Realy? The ratings fall and fall and fall. :(

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Dennis: I still think likely, yes. Its awful Thanksgiving eve ratings won’t factor into my thinking and outside of that it has performed about average for NBC’s scripted fare this season.

  • statik

    too bad whitney couldn’t come up with a show as funny as broke girls, which she helped create–but she’s a comcast e girl & like chelsea, comcast thought their limited cable audience would translate into network success–don’t think comcast actually took into account that when advertisers spend real money for spots, you got to deliver the demo/audience–there’s no incessant repeats to defer the production costs & the real $$ is in rerun syndication–which will never happen–cable shows with 1-1.5 mil audience have skewed the success barometer of a network show–the reality shows have websites & m’dse to offset their anemic ratings–new sitcom’s don’t–

  • James

    @Rob

    Out of Hart of Dixie, 90210, and Beauty and the Beast, which do u think will be renewed? Or All?

  • Anne Noise

    Poor Don’t Trust the Bitch in Apartment 23. It’s gangly name makes it hard to discuss on the internet. It’s such a good show! Krysten Ritter is amazing. These are all thoughts strung together cohesively.

  • Mr Mumble

    Robert is being too kind. The following shows should be one rung lower: Ben and Kate, Guys With Kids, Happy Endings, Nashville, The Good Wife, The Mindy Project, Whitney and The New Normal.

    Every comedy on my list dropped double digit percentages last week when the average viewership was down single digits so the thanksgiving excuse is poor.

  • JC

    Dont Trust the B— committed suicide. That is the only way I can describe it. In case they forgot, the title of the show is “Dont Trust the B—“. That should mean a show about a bitch and the hilarity that should ensue. Never ever should it be about her falling in love for real (or at least not the first episode or so of season two) and there should never EVER EVER (can’t stress this enough) EVER be James Van Der Beek centric episodes.Why is he even there???

  • Melissa

    Two and a Half Men consistently pulls in around a 4.0 – why is it not listed under “Certain Renewal”?

  • The End

    @Mr Mumble

    He is also one of few people here who has proven himself right on so many occasions that you can trust his opinion. He’l be right in the end.

  • Honey Badger

    How low can a TV shows ratings go before syndication is not profitable?

    and how low can it go before no one would want to put it on their network as syndication ?

  • Fake Me Out

    I don’t remember why I started watching DTTBiA23 but I did and I still do. It’s fairly amusing and quirky and an ok way to slay 22 mins once a week. Van der Beek as Van der Beek has got to be the ongoing best thing about the series. But if it ends this year, it ends, c’est la vie.

    ymmv

    I believe… I believe… It’s silly, but I believe.” — Susan Walker (Natalie Wood)

  • Honey Badger

    @ Fake Me Out
    Posted November 25, 2012 at 10:47 AM
    “I believe… I believe… It’s silly, but I believe.” — Susan Walker (Natalie Wood)

    Fake Me Out, you are hot today. Thanks for posting the classic lines.
    A classic line form the classic movie Miracle on 34th Street. ““I believe… I believe… It’s silly, but I believe.” — Susan Walker (Natalie Wood)”

    Add that to your posting of
    @ Fake Me Out
    Posted November 25, 2012 at 10:12 AM
    “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly!!!” — Arthur Carlson
    Great quote
    Classic Line from a classic Thanksgiving episode of TV show WKRP in Cincinnati
    saw the show over the weekend, they were showing a lot of classic old Thanksgiving episode of many TV shows, and they were great
    TV writers today should take notice on how to inprove their TV shows

  • danny94

    Why has the middle been downgraded to likely renewel i’m sure it was certian renewl last week and thats where is should of stayed there isnt a chance in hell abc will cancel it unless their is some freak plummet.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Danny, Bill has it at certain in the R/C posts. I’ve had it “likely” all along (this season) in the bubble watch. It’s a bit of an arbitrary hair split on my part just to give it some separation from Modern Family (same with Suburgatory which Bill also has as certain). Its ratings are good (slightly above average for ABC) but not way above average and it will have enough episodes for syndication after this season. I think it’s very (very, very) likely it will be renewed.

  • Addy

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! The Bitch deserves better. It’s way better than FOX’s crappy comedies and even better than Happy Endings. :(
    Nikita’s ratings are awful as well, and I don’t really see The CW renewing such a low rated show. They should get rid of 90210 and B&B ASAP (I’m not a bitter TSC/Ringer fan BTW and those cancelations were deserved). Emily Owens’ ratings suck but the show is quite good.
    Moral of a fable: Good shows get awful ratings, while crappy sh*t (The X Factor/Two and a Half Men/B&Beast) live to tell.

  • martine

    Beauty and the Beast ratings are inching up. So thats probably a renewal…but what about Nikita? Seriously has it occurred to them that even in syndication its not worth much?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I’m pretty sure Nikita will get another season even at 0.0 ratings (although I think it will stabilize at .3-.4.

    Aside from that, Beauty and the Beast is the only one I’m not sure about. I suspect it will be canceled, but it might have to drop some more before it is.

    As for 90210 and Hart of Dixie, I suspect 90210 might get a short final season. HOD might be canceled. If 90210 is not canceled, BATB probably will be.

    Although some people think Cult will do well when it airs, I think it will “die very badly”.

    Everything else I watch is good to go.

  • Charlie

    I wish people didn’t give up on Don’t Trust the B. It’s really depressing. It’s still one of my favorites.

  • Tambor

    Chicago Fire is definitely likely to return.

    I actually think NBC will likely keep Whitney and Guys with Kids despite their ratings they want to build up a multi-cam block of comedies for the future.

    On The CW, until you see those financial reports which include international numbers don’t predict what’s staying and going.

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