Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don't Trust The B---- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn't as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret's out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.
Whitney's ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn't want to jump to judgement last week and with this week's even more horribly rated episode (haven't seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney's prospects. So I've left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren't any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won't be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to "likely cancellation" immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.
Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It's the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.
So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It's not that I'm trying to rattle Nikita's fans' cages -- it's just the ratings are so bad I find that I'm not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won't go any lower than "on the bubble" even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.
Speaking of "on the bubble" the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A "Save That List" petition on Facebook probably won't make a difference. But it couldn't hurt!
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
@Robert,
I was reading your comments and I would like to know your thoughts on what went wrong with the Body of Proof renewal. My theory (and this would apply as well to the secret circle situation) is that the final three or so episodes have a wayyyyy bigger weight on the renewal decision than we usually think. For this reason, a weighted average would be much more prone to give you the correct average than the simple average would. I am keeping a file with both averages this season and I am very curious to see where it will lead. This is my ony explanation, so I am trying it out, but I would like to hear your input on the whole body of proof situation. I mean, what is the lesson to learn there, in your opinion, as far as predictions are concerned?
“I never thought I’d see the day when a show on CBS that’s getting a 1.1-1.2 most weeks would be a “certain renewal”,”
Huh?
Only one CBS show got a 1.1 this season, Made in Jersey. And it was pulled after 2 eps.
CSINY has two 1.2′s, and BB has one 1.2 so far. Only to the crazy would that be “most weeks”.
Could you, in your exaggeration/confusion, have been referring to one of them?
“My theory (and this would apply as well to the secret circle situation) is that the final three or so episodes have a wayyyyy bigger weight on the renewal decision than we usually think.”
Could have. The renewal was otherwise inexplicable with publicly available information.
“For this reason, a weighted average would be much more prone to give you the correct average than the simple average would. “
Unlikely that would help much in practice, simply because that pattern of brief, handful of episode jump in ratings before the show is done for the season is so rare that it may almost never be applicable.
@ MJDB
I agree on Whitney and GWK both shows will probably need some time to settle in. Both shows have yet to really develop their full potential audience so their could be a huge growth spurt coming their way.
@Bill,
Despite the low ratings of ABC tuesday comedies,is ABC going to release its mid-season schedule soon?
looking at the ratings
NBC should bring back ” Chuck ”
” Nikita ” CW should be renewed
” Fringe ” on Fox should be renewed and they should bring back ” Firefly “
CBS get to renewed csi and csi: ny they are my fave it . And love watch too blue bloods to they all get come back .
I’ve been wrong before about Whitney and I will not be wrong again. NBC likes this show too much to give up on it plus its headed towards syndication in fall 2015 that’s literally only a couple of seasons away.
I don’t think the the final three higher rated episodes of Body of Proof earned it the renewal. I think it was a combination of tax breaks the show got upon moving to LA and the fact that ABC probably knew most of their new dramas would be stinkers and, not to mention, that Private Practice would completely fall apart without Grey’s Anatomy as a lead-in.
The critical praise for the final three episodes did, however, prompt the showrunners to alter the show and make more event-based episodes like those final three, which is just fine by me.
I just hope the show doesn’t inherit the B—- as its lead-in or it’s toast.
If I were ABC, I would – in a last-ditch effort – move the Happy Endings/B—- duo to Thursdays at 8, where its horrible ratings won’t do as much of a damage and hey, if it happens to work, well that’s just an added bonus. I’d also burn off the final three episodes of Private Practice on Saturdays at 10. ABC shouldn’t wait until February to try and revive Tuesdays when DWTS returns in late March, ready to wreck everything.
So here’s what I would do if I were ABC:
Tuesdays:
8pm Wife Swap / DWTS Results
9pm Body of Proof* / Zero Hour
10pm Primetime: Nightline
*special post-Revenge premiere on Sunday at 10, since 666PA has one less episode than RVG and OUAT to air before the Oscars.
Wednesdays:
8:30 Suburgatory
9:30 How to Live with Your Parents…
Thursdays (after LR wraps):
8pm Happy Endings
8:30 Don’t Trust the B—-
Fridays (after Shark Tank wraps):
9pm The Neighbors (order cut by two to match its lead-outs episode count)
9:30 Family Tools
Saturdays (after football):
10pm Private Practice – the final three episodes
Sundays (after the Oscars):
10pm Red Widow
Mondays (Summer):
8pm-10pm The Bachelorette
10pm Mistresses
I usually post fantasy schedules on the R/C index thread, but I just had a new idea and revamped my whole sched. Here it is. Feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
ABC 2013-2014 schedule:
Mon-
8: Last Man Standing
8:30: Malibu Country
9: Now What? (new)
9:30: Crazy Gene (new)*
10: Body of Proof
Make Monday multicam comedies. Body of Proof is getting renewed for syndication purposes, which is very valuable for a procedural.
Tue-
8: Grey’s Anatomy
9: Revenge
10: Rise & Fall (new)
Tuesdays will be a blend of soap and high-sakes drama.
Wed-
8: The Middle
8:30: Suburgatory
9: Modern Family
9:30: Knock Knock (new)*
10: Birthright (new)
Keep the Wednesday comedies where they’re strongest. No multicams, no “adult” comedies, no alien comedies.
*Note: The way of filming for “Crazy Gene” and “Knock Knock” have not been released yet. If Knock Knock is a multicam and Crazy Gene is a singlecam, they will be switched.
Thu-
8: Dancing With the Stars/ The Bachelor
10: Nashville
Fri-
8: Dancing With the Stars: The Results/ Winter Wipeout
9: Shark Tank
10: 20/20
DWTS is old-skewing and should fit in on Friday. Also, it should see an uptick once the All-Stars catastrophe is over.
Sat- (midseason)
8: Shark Tank (R)
9: Castle (R)
10: Primetime: What Would You Do?
WWYD is cheap enough to survive Saturdays, but not similar enough to 48 Hours to get pressure from it.
Sun-
7: AFHV
8: Once Upon a Time
9: SHEILD (new)
10: Castle
A fantasy/ geek night.
Any thoughts?
If Nikita really starts drawing 0.0 ratings, I’d argue it should be moved to likely cancellation. CW, as poor as that network is, would be hard pressed to keep Nikita around under those circumstances.
Wait, they renewed Body of Proof? Does anybody have a link?
The Middle is a certain renewable, not ” likely”. Heading to season 5. A syndicators dream and it also has had steady growing numbers.
Why Whitney is still on the air is beside me? The Harry’s Law of comedies needs to be put out of its misery. How NBC continues to pick consistently bad comedies is a television wonder?
@Brian
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/11/private-practice-body-of-proof-renewed-by-abc-scandal-gcb-canceled/133753/
LOL the link says Scandal was cancelled.
Why is suburgatory only likely renewel!!!
@ Melissa…because “Two and a Half Men” is very long in the tooth, very expensive to make now as a result, and if Ashton Kutcher leaves, they will probably just call it quits. Too difficult explaining a THIRD man!
@ Robert…isn’t it risky to put NBC’s “Revolution” as “certain renewal?” Its ratings are sinking weekly, and it’s about to take the same death-knell 4-month hiatus that killed “Flash Forward,” “V” and “The Event.” While its relative ratings are still high within NBC’s average, that’s because it was so high in the beginning. It’s sinking fast now and should be at cancellation numbers when it whimpers back on the schedule in March. At the very least, it should be at “likely renewal” now
New interview by execs at NBC where they basically admit even they think “Whitney” isn’t funny. What honesty, here’s the link http://hollywoodandswine.com/nbc-orders-five-additional-scripts-of-whitney-prays-at-least-one-is-funny/
@Nick
The Schedule seems ridiculous!!!
Monday
8PM-DWTS
9PM-DWTS
10PM-Castle
Tuesday
8PM-DWTS results
9PM-
10PM-Nashville
Wednesday
8PM-The Middle
8:30PM-Suburgatory
9PM-Modern Family
9:30PM-Crazy Gene
10PM-Mila 2.0
Thursday
8PM-Scandal
9PM-Greys Anatomy
10PM-Vain
Friday
8PM-Last Man Standing
8:30PM-Malibu Country
9PM-Happy Endings
9:30PM-The Neighbors
10PM-Shark Tank
Sunday
7PM-AFHV
8PM-OUAT
9PM-Revenge
10PM-Sea of Fire