Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don't Trust The B---- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn't as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret's out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.
Whitney's ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn't want to jump to judgement last week and with this week's even more horribly rated episode (haven't seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney's prospects. So I've left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren't any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won't be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to "likely cancellation" immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.
Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It's the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.
So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It's not that I'm trying to rattle Nikita's fans' cages -- it's just the ratings are so bad I find that I'm not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won't go any lower than "on the bubble" even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.
Speaking of "on the bubble" the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A "Save That List" petition on Facebook probably won't make a difference. But it couldn't hurt!
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
now that Whitney may be gone bring back Animal Practice i want more of dr.rizzo
Forgot Tuesday at 9PM
Lets put a reality or new drama there.
@Tom
Posted November 25, 2012 at 12:55 PM
“@Anthony The Secret Circle didn’t drop to a 0.6 until its 18th episode. How is that in any way similar to B&B?”
B&B Demo Viewers 1.2—>0.7—>0.6—>0.6—>0.7—>0.6
TSC Demo Viewers 1.3—>0.9—>1.0—>0.8—>0.8—>0.8
I never said the exact numbers for the two shows were the same but that the downward trajectories (with one minor uptick week for each) were similar.
But if you want to get into comparing numbers add in a 10% reduction in ratings for a network from year to year and the absolute numbers start to even look close. (1.2 .8 .9 .7 .7 .7)
I’m curious how is TNN likely renewal at 1.5?
I’m late.
I agree with most of the list but I still think that:
Vegas, Ben And Kate, Guys With Kids are certain to be canceled.
Beauty And The Beast, Chicago Fire are likely to be canceled.
The New Normal, Revolution are on the bubble.
Nashville, The Neighbors, Scandal are likely to be renewed.
Suburgatory, The Middle, Elementary, Hawaii Five-0, How I Met Your Mother, Two and a Half Men, Bones, The Cleveland Show are certain to be renewed.
I’m late.
I still think thatL
Vegas, Ben And Kate, Guys With Kids are certain to be canceled.
Beauty And The Beast, Chicago Fire are likely to be canceled.
The New Normal, Revolution are on the bubble.
Nashville, The Neighbors, Scandal are likely to be renewed.
Suburgatory, The Middle, Elementary, Hawaii Five-0, How I Met Your Mother, Two and a Half Men, Bones, The Cleveland Show are certain to be renewed.
Double post. sorry
@I know, I keep insisting that it gets canceled at the end of the season but no one listens. If you look at how packed NBC’s schedule is this season, you’ll think twice. The New Normal are unlikely to keep their, they would’ve fallen by February.
@Mark , sorry again
Most of ABC are likely renewals, not bubble. So are NBC’s 2 bubble shows.
H50 is certain to be renewed (although it will probably change timeslots, maybe to Sunday?)
For the CW, Emily Owens is a goner, plus GG is ending. There’s no logical reason to renew 90210 – it has reached syndication numbers, doesn’t have a strong fan following, and its final season couldn’t be used to launch a new show because its numbers have really fallen this season. So that’s three open spots on the CW schedule. I also don’t think that Nikita’s numbers warrant a renewal, even for syndication purposes, but it’s distinctly possible. Knowing more about the CW’s new pilots and how many dramas they can launch next fall will help us know more about Nikita, HoD, and BatB’s chances of renewal.
It’s not just about syndication. Networks are more merciful with some lower-rated shoes due to the fact that they cannot cancel their entire lineups. There’s no guarantee with the midsession replacements, and if they bump things up, the schedules will fall into disarray. I think people panic a lot when Nielsen puts their boxes in a few homes and comes up with the calculation that no one is watching a certain show. many Shlock fests flop at the box office, but do well on iTunes and DVD. These same movies would not do as well if they weren’t in theaters first.
I must ask-what is your problem with Nikita ?
‘Despite ABC pulling the plug on the freshman dramas last week, the brains behind both shows tell TVLine that they were given enough time to turn their respective swan songs into series finales. “We have time to tweak,” confirms Last Resort creator Shawn Ryan, adding that Episode 13 will indeed function as a full-fledged series finale.’
http://tvline.com/2012/11/21/last-resort-666-park-avenue-series-finale-spoilers/
@Robert,
Thanks for the answer.
Also, in regards to Apartment 23, I do agree with you in that there might be more than meets the eye there. I do have it as a certain cancelation as well, but I do think there is a chance this might be this year’s BoP (as in renewal that surprises everyone). But most likely it is done, unfortunately, since I actually like the show very much.
@The End, I thought “Fringe” would be canceled last season too! By pointing out the projections aren’t perfect I’m just saying commentators (including me) do have leeway to be more accurate in their projections than the writers here.
I’ll give one more detailed example of where I think Robert (& Bill) are being too lenient: “Happy Endings”.
1. Happy Endings has lower ratings than three shows already cancelled by ABC this season.
2. Happy Endings’ 18-49 ratings over its first four episodes of the season are 18% lower than Cougar Town’s last mid-season (1.4 average vs 1.65).
3. Happy Endings has still only aired 38 episodes (compared to Cougar Town’s 61) so syndication is a non-factor for continuation of airing on ABC.
4. Happy Endings is performing worse than two ABC comedies airing on a Friday.
I understand people have been burnt by the “syndication gods” – with the likes of Fringe. Yet, ABC isn’t Fox (who still haven’t canned “Mob Doctor”) and a perusal of what happened to recent ABC shows such as “Cougar Town” and “Last Resort” shows “Happy Endings” is in more trouble than “on the bubble”.
LOL Nikita on the bubble! I must say “I so agree!”
Agree also w/ Apt 23 & Whitney.
@Mr Mumble,
I agree, in a way. I do love Happy Endings and want it badly renewed, but the thing is, I think we might be over-estimating the syndication factor (or not… I think we will find out this season exactly how big this factor is). even if I give it a boost of 50% to its index number, it’s still behind the bubble show that is LMS (as a friday show, i give it a 30% boost). Is 50% enough or do the syndication gods have even more power? If you give it 75%, then it is likely enough. So this will be the deciding thing and nobody unrelated to the business actually knows how big this percentage is at the moment…
So much hate for Nikita on this site!! Honestly, get a life- Nikita is one of the best shows on TV- Who gives a crap about the ratings anymore, its not like if the ratings are bad, then the show must be terrible- If you ever have bothered watching Nikita, then you will know the rubbish ratings don’t reflect the shows quality!!!! Just watch Nikita please!!!!!
As for Happy Endings chances of renewel, I think it’s gonna come down to if they get to air their full season or not. If they get to air all their episodes that would put them at 57 episodes. If they get to air all of season three I would say that would increase their chances of coming back alot, even if they end up on cable or in some terrible timeslot, I think Sony/ABC is gonna fight to get enough syndication episodes somehow. If they increased this seasons count to 25 episodes and gave them a final 25 episode season 4 wouldn’t that make them around 81-82 episodes? Sometimes about 80 episodes seems to be enough for syndication I’ve noticed in recent years.