Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don't Trust The B---- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn't as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret's out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.
Whitney's ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn't want to jump to judgement last week and with this week's even more horribly rated episode (haven't seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney's prospects. So I've left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren't any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won't be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to "likely cancellation" immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.
Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It's the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.
So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It's not that I'm trying to rattle Nikita's fans' cages -- it's just the ratings are so bad I find that I'm not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won't go any lower than "on the bubble" even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.
Speaking of "on the bubble" the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A "Save That List" petition on Facebook probably won't make a difference. But it couldn't hurt!
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Certain Cancellation |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
@ simon
Nobody hates Nikita here (well, almost). It’s just that everybody (well, almost) likes bitching about its ratings.
Regarding CBS, I think the most logical thing to do next season is canceling CSI:NY, sending The Good Wife to Fridays (either for a full final season or a shortened one) and pairing Hawaii 5-0 with The Mentalist on Sundays. CSI/NY is obviously the most expensive of the three CBS bubble shows, and this way, if The Mentalist continues to lose steam, fans will have to think twice before blaming it on its lead-in.
If I’m ABC, I’m thinking about putting dramas on Monday at 9 and Tuesday at 9 and 10, instead of more DWTS. Yeah, you’re throwing the Monday show against The Voice, but there’s not much drama competition at that time, and the same goes for Tuesday.
HE and Apt. 23 are weird little shows that stick out in network primetime. These, to me, are the kind of shows that belong on FX or TBS or even ABC Family. Some place where people expect more offbeat shows.
I’m a big fan of Revenge, but with the recent drop in ratings: likely renewal…
Ben and Kate is much better than The Mindy Project, which sucks so hard. B&K’s liability is Nate Faxon, though – I’m sorry, but I just hate his teeth. I mean, they are intrusive. Dude, see an orthodontist.
As for The Mindy Project, it’s just embarrassingly unfunny and annoying.
I’ve read CBS has bought a lot of scripts. They need to do something ASAP about their shows. Their hit shows are getting old, NCIS , CM and CSI are not what they used to be. And they have a lot of underperforming shows during the week, Hawaii. 50 numbers on Monday are terrible, Elementary is not what they were hoping for and well, not much expected for weekends. They need to clean house, cancel or send to Sundays those shows and get better shows there or they would drop to last place soon.
Last Resort will be around to the end of the year it does well in after the DVR are added 666 PA does not.
@Joe Petitjean
Both shows will finish their run on ABC, regardless of your Fan Excuse Bingo comment.
@simon
Agreed that ratings don’t always represent quality, but they keep a show alive. I myself loved Eureka, a show that ended with 1.565 million 0.6 18-49, and think the show was easily one of the best on TV period, but the ratings never reflected how great it was and how it was such a fun show, a great production.
Kinda like the situation 666 Park Avenue faced, great production, great cast, great writing, just not popular sadly.
Nikita not doing well doesn’t mean the show sucks, anyone with an IQ would agree. Don’t worry there
@Mr Mumble: Sadly, I have to agree. The question is: Will ABC keep Happy Endings around for the entire season? Or will they cut the order of 22 episodes back to, say, 15? If the former is the correct answer then I think they will make a stromg effort of giving it the Cougar Town treatment and try to sell it to another network.
@Data,
I think that had Happy Endings started in the winter a la cougar town it would be toast. As it is, i don’t believe they will cut the episode order this year.
ABC should start shopping The B!tch to cable. We don’t need another wasted potential like Pan Am…
Based solely on Angus Jones’ recent comments about TaaHM, I’d definitely move it to “On The Bubble.”
“ABC should start shopping The B!tch to cable. We don’t need another wasted potential like Pan Am…”
Cable saves one low rated sitcom and people start thinking it will save them all.
For the first time in a long time, there isn’t a single show on the bubble that I care about.
In previous years they’d probably cut down Happy Endings and The B’s episode order short with those ratings, but since they really don’t have anything better comedies in the pipeline (seriously, whats with all the terrible new comedies they picked up this year??) I don’t see them having anything to replace them with, so they’ll likely at least get to air all the episodes that were ordered. I don’t really see how ABC expected either of these shows to do well. Having to follow a show nobody cares about anymore (DWTS) and then having to go up against all the competing comedies, it’s like they wanted these shows to fail.
The simple fact is if Whitney is not canceled, it’s on NBC. Animal Practice was, statistically, a better lead in for GWK. Both were building and that was evident in the ratings. Whitney is flatlining GWK.
@Bill
“Cable saves one low rated sitcom and people start thinking it will save them all.”
Cable saves one low rated multiple season sitcom because of syndication economics and people start thinking it will save them all.
I just had to improve on the original a bit
People are more likely to see a unicorn than they are to see a low rated cancelled first season show transferred to another network or for that matter transfers in general without syndication economics at work (Medium, Scrubs, Futurama, Law and Order:CI) or the strange exception for a filmed and cancelled second season like Southland.
But that never stops the delusional from being……….well delusional.
SVU should bring back Christopher Meloni. The show is not the same without him.
@Anon
Absolutely not, with or without him Two and a Half Men will go on. I can assure you.
Brian: “If Nikita really starts drawing 0.0 ratings, I’d argue it should be moved to likely cancellation. CW, as poor as that network is, would be hard pressed to keep Nikita around under those circumstances.”
Once again…
First of all, the CW would obviously have been hard pressed to renew it LAST season because Nikita was THE lowest rated show on the network until Ringer bypassed it in the spring and became the worst.
Second, it’s highly unlikely that Nikita will reach a 0.0, in any event. Most likely its lowest rating will be a .2 and it might even pick up to regular .3-.4 range once the show gets past the more procedural first few episodes.
Third, the bottom line is that if syndication rules then the show will get another season. There obviously IS a point at which the cost of producing new seasons may exceed the projected revenue of syndication. But that has nothing to do with the CW – it has to do with WB. As long as the WB offers Nikita to the CW at a rate where even flat or zero ratings produce enough ad revenue to offset the cost of the show to the CW, the CW will air it – unless they are CERTAIN to be able to replace it with a show that would earn bigger ad revenue.
And that last point is next to impossible because, well, it’s the CW. Almost everything they put on crashes down to the .4-.5 range. Arrow is the first thing they’ve had in years that is doing a decent job of staying north of 1.0.
I don’t disagree that a 0.0 rating MIGHT lower Nikita’s chances for a fourth season, but I don’t see it likely to happen at all.