Bubble Watch: 'Whitney' Doesn't Look Good; 'Don't Trust The B----' Looks Worse

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 25th, 2012

Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don't Trust the B---- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn't as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret's out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.

Whitney's ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn't want to jump to judgement last week and with this week's even more horribly rated episode (haven't seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney's prospects. So I've left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren't any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won't be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to "likely cancellation" immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.

Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It's the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.

So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It's not that I'm trying to rattle Nikita's fans' cages -- it's just the ratings are so bad I find that I'm not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won't go any lower than "on the bubble" even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.

Speaking of "on the bubble" the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A "Save That List" petition on Facebook probably won't make a difference. But it couldn't hurt!

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.


Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Certain Cancellation
The Mob Doctor Fox Certain Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Ben and Kate Fox Likely Cancellation
Guys with Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
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  • nateddog(future actor)

    well NIKITA was on @ 9 against fringe and grimm so hopefully ratings will rise when it moves back to 8

  • Jason

    I got a little update, Emily Owens, MD and The Mob Doctor are both going bye-bye.

  • Jason

    “Jason, look at the date on the post.

    Boy, you must feel silly now.”

    Okay, I understand. I notice every week you update things. Sorry about that.

  • POIFanatic

    @Patrick G:

    “isn’t it risky to put NBC’s “Revolution” as “certain renewal?” Its ratings are sinking weekly, and it’s about to take the same death-knell 4-month hiatus that killed “Flash Forward,” “V” and “The Event.” While its relative ratings are still high within NBC’s average, that’s because it was so high in the beginning. It’s sinking fast now and should be at cancellation numbers when it whimpers back on the schedule in March. At the very least, it should be at “likely renewal” now :(

    No, Revolution’s lowest was a 2.6 and the mid-season finale earned a 2.9 at 10pm. That’s almost a whole point higher than all those shows mid-season finales. Also, there’s huge viewership as noted by the huge dvr rating increases (even though it doesn’t matter much). If Revolution doesn’t drop below a 2.5 the rest of the season, its a certain renewal. Since the finale was stellar with a phenomenal performance by Monroe, I don’t think the show is going anywhere.

  • Ali

    I can’t believe Don’t trust the B is in the chopping block. I actually enjoy that show more than I expected. Krysten Ritter does an excellent job and Van der Veek is also really good. I hope it gets renewed!

  • josh

    The B- is an awesomely funny show, it should be given more of a chance!

  • Normac

    It’s time for an overhaul for how viewers can submit opinions of the the shows they love and hate to the networks!
    Many of the shows I love are canceled, likely to cancel, or on the bubble, but there isn’t a convenient way for me to tell the networks what I do and don’t like. I don’t do social media of any type (Facebook, Google+, Twitter, etc) nor do I have any desire to, so there’s no Like-ing or#Hashtag-img from me; and while I’ll admit I’m in the minority in this respect, I know I’m not the only one.

    Nielsen has sent me a few invites in the past to participate in their ratings system via mail, but there really wasn’t a convenient way for me to do so the way I watch TV – I’m a DVR addict. I DVR almost everything, sometimes even live sports I’ll purposely record 20 or so minutes before watching to be able to skip commercials, timeouts, and/or half-timetime. The Nielsen box would never work for me, either. Many shows require you to watch each episode to keep up with the action/subplot, and if I miss an episode (an issue with the DVR at the time of recording, for example) of a favorite show and I can’t catch it on-demand or online, I’ll save the new recordings until that episode repeats. (SIDEBAR: Anyone else notice even good shows that build on the plot each episode seem to struggle on network stations (i.e. Last Resort), but do very well on cable stations (i.e. Burn Notice, Justified, The Walking Dead)?

    I understand TV shows are paid for by advertisers – the more popular the show, the more the commercial time slots cost- and if everyone watched shows the way I do, advertisers would eventually not even bother. My main point is that technology has changed the way we view our entertainment, and so should how the ratings and popularity tracking. Or is there some way to voice our viewing interests, that all the networks would ACTUALLY pay attention to, that fits my viewing habits as described above with my sincere disinterest in social media?

  • Normac

    Another tidbit of food for thought: Revolution (an awesome show) is one of those must-watch-every-episode-or-you-WILL-be-lost kind of shows on Network television, but it was the number 1 pirated show on the internet last season. My take on that is people heard how great it is mid to late season and found their own way of catching up.

    And Don’t Trust the B-is hilarious…I agree with others here that Krysten Ritter is awesome, and James “The Beek” Van Der Beek has never been funnier!

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