ABC: 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville' & 'Scandal' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.52
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.60
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.68
Last Resort canceled 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.85
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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With nine weeks of the season behind us, I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.

Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They've in the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's now certain to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Nik

    I so hope that your renewal prediction for Scandal is right! It’s my favorite show on network tv right now (though, honestly, ABC is giving me life with many of their shows, including OUAT and Revenge).

  • Sel

    I still don’t understand why one of the best comedies on TV right now are on the bottom :@ Way to goooooo ABC!

  • martin

    i actually like the neighbours,

  • Harma

    After they retooled Last Man Standing it has become unwatchable, I don’t see its fall stopping

  • Alex C

    I am questioning the audience that watches “The Neighbors” and ignores “Happy Endings” and “Apt 23″

  • Jake

    If ABC renews “Scandal,” then they have zero in drama development. The show’s performance last season didn’t merit a second season, and it hasn’t grown thus far. “Grey’s Anatomy” is one of the network’s few performers, and by all measures the audience should be the same for both “Grey’s” and “Scandal.” However, “Scandal” can’t maintain enough of the “Grey’s” audience, so the slot should be used to launch a new series.

    It’s too bad more people haven’t followed “Happy Endings” to Tuesday. It is a great comedy.

    “Last Man Standing” and “Malibu Country” look likelier renewals than cancellations at this point.

  • TVDude

    I wouldn’t keep HE if it were up to me, but maybe ABC is waiting to see how things go after DWTS ends and the block becomes a a two hour one, assuming they still attempt it.

  • Brandon

    Scandal is a great show, but it really needs to grow it’s audience or it’s going to be moved.Losing that much audience from Grey’s is pretty bad. If they move it they should air it after Revenge.

    Happy Endings and Apt 23 being all the way at the bottom is so depressing. Especially for a quality show like Happy Endings. If ABC doesn’t renew it has to get picked up somewhere else. Shark Tank will be it’s lead-in and that show seems younger skewing so maybe it will give Happy Endings a little boost?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ” by all measures the audience should be the same for both “Grey’s” and “Scandal.””

    Only if you’re measuring with a Retentionista ruler.

    ““Scandal” can’t maintain enough of the “Grey’s” audience, so the slot should be used to launch a new series.”

    Shows can certainly be moved around, I make no predictions about that.

  • tommy

    I wonder about Nashville, as much as I (really) like this show, with 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8 rt. for me it’s rather bold to put it into likely renewal category already.
    And as far as Happy Endings, well it’s sad, but what can you really expect. It’s freakin’ tuesday and with ‘Private Practice’ and ‘DWTS’ in my opinion it won’t do better than that.

  • Honey Badger

    Nashville will be cancelled by ABC. The ratings will keep dropping, better get the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear ready

  • CrimTV

    I think they should cancel Scandal at the end of this season it’ll have just 30 episodes, when a usual 2 season series would have 44 and above. It’ll take another 2 and a half seasons to reach syndication!

  • joethehobo

    I don’t understand. I just can’t. Why in the world are people ignoring good, quality television like Happy Endings and Apartment 23 and sticking with absolute junk like Last Man Standing, Malibu Country, and The Neighbors?

  • matt

    Go Nashville, good to see its likely to be renewed

  • tommy

    @joethehobo
    Amen to that.

  • eridapo

    Bill,

    are you using Sunday’s preliminary ratings?

  • eridapo

    It also makes sense… ABC has 3 drama cancellations already, and if two of the comedies get canceled then it would have four hours to fill next year. There is also the possibility that ABC might want to tweak DWTS somewhat. If it goes to just one cycle per year, ABC will need 3 additional hours to program in the fall (or spring).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “are you using Sunday’s preliminary ratings?”

    Yes for ABC shows, I didn’t note that in the post, because the averages (and thus the Indexes) are unlikely to move enough to even be visible after the adjustments.

    For CBS Sunday shows, the averages do not include the latest Sunday airings.

  • Just Desserts

    @Probably because it’s Tuesday. :)

  • Honey Badger

    @ CrimTV
    Posted November 27, 2012 at 12:26 PM
    I think they should cancel Scandal at the end of this season it’ll have just 30 episodes, when a usual 2 season series would have 44 and above. It’ll take another 2 and a half seasons to reach syndication! ”

    you have a good reasoning, so now I agree with you.
    Scandal will be cancelled by ABC. The ratings will keep dropping, better get the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear ready

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