ABC: 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville' & 'Scandal' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.52
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.60
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.68
Last Resort canceled 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.85
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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With nine weeks of the season behind us, I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.

Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They've in the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's now certain to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Doug

    I think the Neighbors will be one and done.

    We say this past Monday how sticking a repeat BBT in at 8:30pm benefited the entire Monday night line-up for CBS. I firmly believe that the same is true for ABC on Wednesday – that their declines are attributable to the black hole that is The Neighbors at 8:30.

  • Lars

    Could it be a good idea to move Castle to Sundays at 10 next year?

  • Melissa

    @Honey Badger

    Scandal will be cancelled by ABC. The ratings will keep dropping, better get the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear ready

    What do you mean “the ratings will keep dropping”? Scandal premiered to a 2.1 in the spring, and all season, usually notched a 2.0. It’s doing the same thing this season, so it hasn’t really dropped at all. There’s no reason to believe it will suddenly start falling.

  • SarahL

    My fingers are crossed for The Neighbors so I hope that you are right.

  • omabin

    I don’t believe the last time i disagreed with you with headlines but i don’t agree with this one at all. these are two clear bubble shows for me and i still say that if the season ended now they would be done. Spring ratings are likely to only make it worse, considering they are newbies, which only are not as stable yet, so are more affected by the declines than established shows.

  • SarahL

    If I am honest, I don’t think that The Neighbors has a shot at a second season so I am just going to enjoy this season.

  • Ram510

    I believe that Scandal will grow in January and pull in new viewers. The show is excellent and is why people keep tuning in each week

  • rob60990

    A little soon to put Nashville & The Neighbors as likely to be renewed. Both have fallen below a 2.0 a couple of times already and it’s only the fall.

  • Bookworm

    I think Scandal will be renewed if the mid-season show don’t produce a break out hit. Even if they did, I think Scandal will still be in better condition than a show like Nashville.

    @Honey badger
    How did you figure that? Scandal has not gone below a 1.9 (that always comes after a two week break) and they came out with a 2.1 and basically have stayed floating in that range for 6 episodes straight. Last season they had the same kind of numbers and never dropped far from it. Scandal is crazy steady and their viewer numbers hasn’t taken any large hits despite Grey going up and down the past few weeks.

  • Anon

    Apt23 would have been great had they stuck to their premise. The “B” should be the center of the episodes, not the Beek.

  • omabin

    I really want to see if ABC tries to move the 10pm shows around come midseason or if it just wishfull thinking. I still say that Tuesday need to be completely re-started from scratch, that Wednesday at 10pm is the place for the happy endings bitch duo, that nashville shoud follow greys and that scandal should follow revenge. Let’s see if they do at least some of these or if they stick with the predictable thing and stick red widow at sundays at 10pm, bop at tuesdays at 10pm and zero hour at thursdays at 8 with everything else untouched.

  • diego

    Go tbs, do it again! #saveHE

  • THE OLD MAN

    Can’t disagree with anything here

  • eridapo

    A little soon to put Nashville & The Neighbors as likely to be renewed. Both have fallen below a 2.0 a couple of times already and it’s only the fall.

    The entire 10PM slot is at 2.0 on average, so anything at or above a 2.0 at this point looks golden.

  • Jeff R

    I wonder how many people dissing The Neighbors have watched or watched past the pilot? It’s become a very funny and sweet show. I think ABC will stick with it in hopes of seeing growth after a summer push, ala The Middle after its first season.

  • simsalabim

    I would be happy if scandal gets a 3rd season. It is the only abc show i watch.

  • Stormy44

    I think that Scandal will be renewed but not so sure about Nashville. I think that Scandal has a strong potential for ratings increase with some more promotion by ABC. They seem to be coming to the same opinion also because I’m beginning to notice additional promotions during their bigger shows and also on cable.

    I think that ABC will do everything it can to save Nashville between now and the end of the season but I don’t see it working. It doesn’t do well in the major markets and the Nashville setting is too limiting. And while it got great reviews from the critics, it’s also has not generated a lot of fan buzz which is another thing hurting the show.

  • Nick

    ABC 2013-2014 schedule:

    ABC:

    Mon-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: Malibu Country
    9: Now What? (new)
    9:30: Crazy Gene (new)
    10: Body of Proof

    Tue-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Revenge
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Knock Knock (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Dancing With the Stars
    10: Nashville

    Fri-
    8: Dancing with the Stars: The Results
    9: Shark Tank
    10: 20/20

    Sat- (midseason)
    8: Shark Tank (R)/ Winter Wipeout (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Castle

    I changed the whole schedule. I posted it on the Bubble Watch Sunday, but I got no feedback except from someone who said they hated it without explanation. Any thoughts? Thanks.

  • Nick

    ^I forgot to add…
    The Neighbors is shipped to Disney Channel
    Scandal comes in midseason.

  • jamandas

    I usually don’t comment on show I don’t care for but I really don’t understand who could actually sit through a whole episode of The Neighbors.

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