ABC: 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville' & 'Scandal' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.52
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.60
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.68
Last Resort canceled 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.85
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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With nine weeks of the season behind us, I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.

Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They've in the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's now certain to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bee

    actually, scandal began w. a 2.0. it’s floated between 1.9-2.0 for every episode other than the season 1 finale and season 2 premiere. meanwhile, grey’s has been as high as 4.4 and low as 2.8 i think. but scandal stayed stayed. nearly everyone who tries it, loves it. just not enough people tried it in the first place lol anyway, ABC seems to actually trying to promote the show recently so i hope it pays off.

  • Charlie

    Concerning these three, I have a feeling that Scandal will be renewed for a third and a fourth season, before getting a final fifth season. The Neighbors could go either way, but I see it hopping onto the cancellation bears plate. Nashville will probably pull a private practice, be renewed and then fail. That’s my opinion.

  • DB

    The weird thing with Happy Endings is that even though it’s one of ABC’s lowest rated comedies (this season anyway) it still seems to be their most talked about after Modern Family. I’m constantly seeing write-ups on it in magazines and various websites (moreso than Suburgatory, The Middle, etc which I almost never see discussed much). For that alone I’m at least a little more hopeful about it surviving somehow, but maybe I’m just being delusional haha

  • vincentdante

    I don’t know if this is a factor in any decision, but many of the songs from Nashville have done remarkably well when sold on itunes. I know ABC has a piece of the action (like FOX does with Glee and NBC with Smash) and monetary considerations often trump conveentional wisdom.

  • forg

    I like The Neighbors but i think it won’t last a second season. This reminded me of Better With You which had poor retention from The Middle but was steady in the low 2s in the fall then it dropped to below 2 when Idol came in, I see the same fate with Neighbors

    Sad for Apt 23 and HE. ABC promoted them very well so unfair to blame them for the sitcoms’ failures.

    I still like LMS despite the recasting of the eldest daughter, I hope it goes back to high 1s

  • Gerald

    I don’t get it, shouldn’t Scandal and Nashville still be considered as a toss up? As far as I know, the ratings for both are still average/mediocre.

  • Dan S

    I’m pleased to see Nashville given likely to be renewed. I had low expectations since I’m not a fan of country music but that show has grown on me. Surprised to see The Neighbors doing as well as it has considering so many people had it pegged for early cancellation. I think eventually it’ll get shipped to Fridays.

  • Brian

    Glad to see Scandal in this position. That show, OUAT, and Revenge are all I watch from ABC up here in Canada on both CTV and Citytv.

  • Bookworm

    @Nick
    I doubt Scandal will be back in as a Midseason. I don’t see that happening and I don’t see the Neighbors getting shipped to the Disney Channel. It would be canceled before then or go to ABC Family but even that is a long shot. Also, Grey coming in at 8pm on a Tuesday? ABC will never move Grey. It has been golden in that spot and gives them no concern to even attempt to think about a move. It will die in the time slot and Scandal, if renewed, will follow it. Nashville has a better shot at 10pm on Sunday than 10pm on Thursday.

    Revenge is another they won’t move for another season. It works on Sunday (sort of), so I think ABC will leave it with OUAT and Castle will stay on Tuesday and maybe change time slot but probably not the day.

    Body of Proof is possibly done after this mid season; I don’t see it back in the Fall.

    Monday nights with LMS and MC? Both are doing okay in the time slot on Friday. They will stay there, LMS won’t last on any day but Friday right about now.

    The schedule is a little radical; I don’t think ABC will rearrange everything that drastically.

  • Maximillian

    @ Bookworm – agree

  • Melissa

    @Nick

    Lol, that’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.

  • SarahL

    @Nick

    ABC will never move Grey’s, its highest rated drama, to Tuesdays and give the prime Thursday slot to a dying reality show. Revenge will stay on Sundays.

    The Neighbors will be cancelled outright and not sent to Disney. Nashville and Scandal will both be most likely be cancelled. However, Scandal has the better chance of renewal and if it is, it will be moved to another time slot.

  • joel

    The Neighbors!

  • Cj morton

    I really hope Last Man Standing and Malibu Country Get renewed. There’s no good clean family comedies anymore, and they are that. Plus, it’s Tim Allen and Reba, so that’s just awesome already.

  • john

    The messing around with one of the main characters in Last Man Standing is proving its downfall. The new sister who looks at least 30 and the mysterious child ageing is taking the audience for fools.

    Neighbors has won me over. If ever there was a show which needed a chance to prove itself, this one has. However, long term the novelty will wear off and the aliens will be expected to have adjusted to Earth life. Having them still acting the fool in five years time will not compute.

  • RyanCanada

    happy endings and Apt23 had a terrible lead in, with a terrible demo! smh, EFF ABC

  • RyanCanada

    Happy Endings is ABC Funniest Comedy, and i agree The Neighbors is terrible and should be replace with HE, and they should burn off TN on Tuesdays

  • spence29@hotmail.com

    I kind of agree on Neighbors, but it will get moved out of the Wednesday Comedy Block, since 3/4 shows aren’t going anywhere.
    I guess it depends on pilot season.
    The Tuesday block isn’t working.

  • Concerned Citizen

    If Cougar Town couldn’t get renewed by ABC under very similar circumstances last year, I can’t see how Happy Endings will survive. The best case scenario is a TBS renewal. I like the show, but not as much as most do, so I won’t be too devastated if it doesn’t make it. Renew Suburgatory and Castle (which I don’t love, but dammit, Nathan Fillion deserves to end a show on his own terms) and I’ll be happy.

  • RS

    Because, my dear, quality is in the eyes of the beholder. I laugh at the Neighbors – a sweet funny treat (see Monty Python). I watched The B last week, and they were satirizing homeless shelters. On Thanksgiving. I watched and loved AB Fab., but this is disgusting.

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