ABC: 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville' & 'Scandal' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.52
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.60
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.68
Last Resort canceled 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.85
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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With nine weeks of the season behind us, I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.

Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They've in the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's now certain to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Justin121

    I agree 100% with the index.

    BUT the Friday shows, as of now / so far, are more likely to be renewed than cancelled, in my opinion.

    I don’t know why you never go that extra mile of bold predictions…

  • Pete

    Possible mid-season schedule

    Sunday
    8 – Once Upon A Time
    9 – Revenge
    10 – Nashville / Mistresses

    Monday
    8 – The Bachelor
    10 – Castle

    Castle should not be moved. It will collapse on Tuesdays. And if The Biggest Loser & Deception don’t do well people may turn to Castle.

    Tuesday
    8 – How to Live with Your Parents
    830 – Family Tools
    9 – Happy Endings
    930 – Apt 23
    10 – Zero Hour

    Betty White (NBC) / Raising Hope + Ben & Kate (FOX) will do much better than ABC’s new sitcoms. They’re pretty much done. Without no lead-in Happy Endings & Apt will do even more terribly.

    Zero Hour has no lead-in at all, but ABC needs to develop new dramas on Tuesdays. The timeslot may work for Zero Hour too (Smash is female-skewing, Vegas is old-skewing). If Zero Hour succeeds, SHIELD may also work on Tuesdays next season.

    Wednesday
    8-10 – unchanged
    10 – Nashville / Mistresses

    Mistresses may have a better chance of success on Wednesdays.

    Thursday
    8 – Red Widow (mid-season), Body of Proof (spring)

    Red Widow is this year’s Missing. Doomed to failure. Body of Proof did terribly last season, it won’t do better.

    Friday unchanged

  • JD

    It’s sad we live in a world where The Neighbours will probably get renewed, and Happy Endings is in danger. Way to go, ABC, you’re killing your best comedy. I’m sure there’s a place for it on Wednesdays if they’ll renew it.

  • Ellen

    Re: “Last Resort”. Scott Speedman was on “Live with Kelly and Michael” this morning, and no mention was made of the cancellation. Why would ABC send him out if the show’s off the schedule?

  • martin

    Nashville is certainly not doing as well as they had hoped. id don’t watch it
    Scandal — i like it! hope it gets renewed

  • Nick

    @JD

    It’s sad we live in a world where someone thinks Happy Endings is the best comedy on ABC.

  • SarahL

    Why can’t people just like what they like without the insults?

  • JoeRobby

    What nobody seems to be mentioning is the fact that Happy Endings is up against New Girl. First, they target the exact same audience. In fact, I think both are doing well given that fact. Happy Endings beats New Girl in total viewers every week. Where it loses, is the 18-49 rank. Without this context, it looks like it is doing terribly. If it were moved to a place with different competition, I wonder what the viewership would be. I would also like to see ratings from Hulu and abc.com (including demographic) to see if that makes up for the missing numbers. Granted, I’m upset because it is the funniest show on ABC and it is doing so poorly. However, numbers alone can be misleading.

  • Noelle

    @Jake I don;t know what the fate of Scandal will be at the end of the season but I know you’re wrong about one thing: Scandal’s audience is nothing like Grey’s. Yes, it might be smaller, but Scandal is reaching a demographic that Grey’s doesn’t reach nearly as well. Scandal has a predominantly black female following… ABC can use the niche audience they are getting for this show to their advantage when it comes to advertising. It would be stupid not to.

  • Honey Badger

    ” Nashville ” last two weeks with 18 – 49 ratings of 1.8
    ABC can not be happy, what a drop this show has had.

    I predict it is likely to be cancelled.

  • Randy

    I think that Family Tools is going to get cancelled 2 weeks into it’s premiere date March 12th. That’s ridiculous. They ordered 13 episodes, but due to scheduling, they say they are only have 10 episodes. This show is never going to make it. Who’s going to start watching a show in the middle of March! It’s so random!

    Also, 13 episodes is hardly anything. This is a half hour show (with commercials). Why didn’t they order it for replacing 666 Park Avenue on Sunday instead? Sure, they never knew that 666 Park Avenue was going to get cancelled, but why not replace a drama with a comedy. Dumb, really dumb. Seems like they just needed some filler, and it won’t last.

  • rob60990

    ^You’re the only one that’s really dumb with the crap you just posted.
    -First of all Family Tools airdate was never released.
    -Second, premiering a show in March is not unusual.
    -Third, most new series start with just 13 episodes.
    -And finally, airing a sitcom after 2 dramas is just ridiculous.

    You obviously don’t have a clue what you are talking about making yourself look foolish.

  • Toni

    The Neighbors is absolutely hilarious! What about the 3rd episode, when the alien woman wishes to act like a “real housewife” in order to please her human friend and mistakes ‘The Real Housewives of New Jersey’ as an educational program for human females (LOL!)… I think if The Neighbors can keep averaging a 2.0 or also something better, the renewal is locked.
    On the other side, Malibu Country is the most unwatchable, terrible thing ever broadcasted this year …

  • Austin Lauran

    If you were the president of ABC, which dramas and sitcoms would you rather have on your network:

    The ones that have low ratings which win a lot of Emmys & Golden Globes or the ones that have low ratings & don’t get nominated for any Emmys & Golden Globes?

  • Doug

    Neither HE nor New Girl are doing *that* well. NG slipped to a 2.0 during its last outing, while HE was down at a 1.1.

    Anybody catch Shark Tank’s “special” Tuesday episode scheduled for this week? Me thinks that ABC is testing the waters. If ST does indeed move to Tuesdays, it will be interesting to see what happens to DWTS. My big prediction is that the spring edition of DWTS will move – if not the performance show, then the results show.

  • Peter Mazz

    I think this is going to be the ABC Midseason schedule:

    MONDAY:
    ?8pm – 10pm — The Bachelor
    10pm – 11pm — Castle

    TUESDAY
    ?8pm – 8:30pm — HOW TO LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE
    ?8:30pm – 9pm — THE FAMILY TOOLS
    9pm – 9:30pm — Happy Endings
    9:30pm – 10pm — Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23
    10pm — 11pm — Body of Proof (12 Episodes – January/April)/Red Widow (8 Episodes – April/May)

    WEDNESDAY
    ?8pm – 8:30pm — The Middle
    8:30pm – 9pm — Suburgatory
    ?9pm – 9:30pm — Modern Family
    9:30pm – 10pm — THE NEIGHBORS
    ?10pm – 11pm — ZERO HOUR

    THURSDAY
    ?8pm – 9pm — Mistresses
    9pm – 10pm — Grey’s Anatomy
    ?10pm – 11pm — Scandal

    FRIDAY
    ?8pm – 8:30pm — Last Man Standing
    8:30pm – 9pm — MALIBU COUNTRY
    9pm – 10pm — Shark Tank
    ?10pm – 11pm — 20/20

    SUNDAY:
    ?8pm – 9pm — Once Upon a Time
    9pm – 10pm — Revenge
    ?10pm – 11pm — 666 PARK AVENUE

    SUMMER:
    Celebrity Wife Swap at Thursdays at 8:00

  • Peter Mazz

    SUNDAY:
    10pm – 11pm – Nashville*

  • Peter Mazz

    I think that ABC will cancell The Family Tools, How to live with your parents, Body of Proof, Happy Endings, Apartment 23, and maybe even Red Widow or Scandal :)

  • Kevin

    The Neighbors will NEVER get renewed for another season. It better get “canceled” after one season tops. :-(

  • cc

    i watch the neighbors. it’s funny sometime and i like it, but i don’t think it really deserve a second season. Lots of the humor are overdone. Compare to other ABC comedy, it’s a bit lacking.

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