ABC: 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville' & 'Scandal' Are Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.52
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.60
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.68
Last Resort canceled 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.73
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.85
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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With nine weeks of the season behind us, I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.

Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.

Last Man Standing and Malibu Country held steady last Friday with 1.4 ratings for both. They've in the "toss up" range for cancellation or renewal by the end of the season. And if their ratings are not done falling, that prognosis may change again very soon.

Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's now certain to be canceled.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Stormy44

    @Noelle

    Actually, you are wrong about the makeup of the Scandal audience. The total black viewing audience for an episode of Scandal is only about 2 million. Hispanics and Asians probably account for about a million and the remaining share is made up of white americans and accounts for almost 4 million viewers. The show has a black lead but it is not a black show as some think.

    I suspect the fact that it has a black lead is why some on this and other boards think it won’t be renewed and no doubt ABC was wary initially and that is why they only gave season one a 7 episode order. However, to their pleasant surprise, they were wrong and the show has built a core black and more importantly to ABC–a white audience

  • Stormy44

    @Noelle part 2.

    I accidently pressed submit before I finished my comments.

    The show is also showing growth with the white female demo and that is why ABC is finally putting some advertising dollars behind it. A sad commentary in todays world but unfortunately that is the reality of the business. The show also has a good size male audience. The show will be renewed because it is the only ABC show showing growth and it will also stay on Thursday because it has the type of crossover demos that advertisers love heading into the weekend when people do most of their shopping and I suspect that next year, ABC will be charging more foe advertisement on the show.

    So while African-American females are a large part of the audience and the most active online viewers, they are not the largest portion of the viewing audience.

  • spike

    Loving the series (The Neighbors),, whoever put the cast together,, stand up and give yourself a massive pat on the back,, great script, humour delivered superbly and great storylines,, episode 9 tonight,, roll on the next series ..

  • Pat

    I am pulling for Nashville. I really like it and the cast is great.

  • MLS

    Scandal Best Show in Years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Queenie

    Scandal is the BEST show on Television. I can’t wait for the next episode. I am totally captivated by the unexpected, dangerous and sexy tone of the show.

  • Olive Brody

    I <333 The Neighbors! Hope they get renewed!!!!

  • Mike

    I can’t stand to listen to smug English accents for that long, I think I would have been able to watch it more if they didn’t sound so annoying. Sitcoms with those Brit accents never last! Now 3rd Rock from the Sun was a great show!

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