Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Fringe (F) | final season | 0.49 |
| The Mob Doctor |  (canceled 11/28) |
0.54 |
| Ben And Kate | |
0.72 |
| Raising Hope |  |
0.85 |
| The Mindy Project |  |
0.90 |
| The Cleveland Show |  |
0.96 |
| Bones | |
1.06 |
| Bob's Burgers | renewed | 1.09 |
| American Dad | already renewed | 1.14 |
| Glee | |
1.18 |
| New Girl | |
1.29 |
| Family Guy | already renewed | 1.42 |
| The Simpsons | already renewed | 1.60 |
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11/28 Update: The Mob Doctor has been canceled.
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Ben & Kate's prediction was changed to "certain to be canceled" last week, but Glee usurped the headline. Now it gets its rightful place.
Unless last week's rating was a complete fluke, The Mindy Project is going to drop to "likely canceled" next week. Stay tuned.
Two years ago when Fox's Lone Star, "Lone Star'd" its premiere rating (1.3) it was yanked after its second episode (which had a 1.0). This season, The Mob Doctor has been nearly as woeful and yet looks like it will air most or all of its 13 episode order before vanishing.
Raising Hope is predicted as "certain to be renewed" even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season. Read more about it here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
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- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
Oh Ben and Kate… My favorite new comedy of the season, already doomed. Last week’s Thanksgiving-episode was amazing. Oh well, I’ll enjoy it while it lasts.
Ben and Kate is soo good, I’ll sure miss this one :[
I won’t miss it.
Fox’s comedy block looks as bad or worse than NBC’s Thursday block. While 30 Rock (which is ending) and Up All Night (probably will get canceled) rank poorly, The 9pm hour seems to be doing better. I make this comparison because it shows just how bad Fox is doing this season.
Hopefully things will pick up for Fox when AI returns. Raising Hope is performing about as expected, but New Girl’s numbers have to be disappointing as it’s not being the lead in they were hoping for. I don’t think anything will do much better the TMP behind New Girl struggling to pull in a 2.0.
The Cancellation Bear is gaining on “Ben and Kate”!
Not too long before The Mindy Project falls below Raising Hope.
“Not too long before The Mindy Project falls below Raising Hope.”
On a week to week basis, it’s below it already, but the average has not yet “caught up”.
I wipe the slate clean on January 1, and use only 2013 ratings from then on out. Then you’ll see the difference.
Ben and Kate is a tough show to market, in a slightly tricky timeslot and on the wrong network. I think it would have been a hit on ABC on Wednesday.
Fox will cancel The Mindy Project.
Why hasn’t the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear, taken out the The Mob Doctor yet? I don’t understand why this show is still on TV
I didn’t know you were a FOX executive Honey Badger, LOL
Bill, I’m curious as to what kind of numbers Glee would have to get to be in any possible danger of not being renewed for a 5th season.
Thank heaven this is Fringe’s last season. The show has become abominably bad. A sad ending to what originally had decent promise.
@ matt
Posted November 27, 2012 at 12:41 PM
I didn’t know you were a FOX executive Honey Badger, LOL ”
Not yet, but maybe CEO at Fox is reading my post at tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com and will make me an FOX executive : )
“Bill, I’m curious as to what kind of numbers Glee would have to get to be in any possible danger of not being renewed for a 5th season.”
Moving target.
Figure that Fox shows that averaged a 1.6 or less during the Fall are in significant danger. Glee averaged a 2.3.
By the spring the threshold might fall to a 1.5 or less.
Ben & Kate is the best.
@matt
The show just isn;t viable. It’s still Fall yet it’s getting Spring ratings.
Just me playing around with the shedule for next season with 2 new dramas and 2? new comedies and The Following being a hit and renewed
Monday
8-New Drama
9-The Following
Tuesday
8-New Girl
8.30-New Comedy
9-Glee
Wednesday
8-X Factor/Idol
9-X Factor/Idol
Thursday
8-X Factor/Idol
9-New Drama
Friday
8-Raising Hope
8.30-New Comedy OR one of the sunday animations
9-Bones
That’s crazy after 23 years Simpsons still on top!
Fox 2013-2014 sched:
Mon-
8: Bones (full final season)
9: Gun Machine (new)/ Untitled Wyman/Abrams project (new)
Tue-
8: Raising Hope
8:30: The Goodwin Games/ Live From Our Living Room (new)
9: New Girl
9:30: Wendy & Peter (new)
Wed-
8: X Factor/ Idol
Thu-
8: X Factor/ Idol
9: Glee (12 episode final season)/The Following
Fri-
8: Kitchen Nightmares
9: Touch
Sat-
8: Fox Sports Saturday
Sun-
7: The OT/ Cops
7:30: The OT/ The Cleveland Show
8: The Simpsons
8:30: Bob’s Burgers
9: Family Guy
9:30: American Dad
I love BAK. TMP is funny, too (the episodes after the pilot have been progressively better) – but I have so much on Tuesday nights if either of them have to go, it’ll just be less for me to watch…I’ll enjoy them while they last. RH and NG are fun, too. I only watch Fox on Tuesdays (I stream BB online), or rather, I spend part of Wednesdays catching up on the Tuesday comedies since I also watch ABC and NBC’s and can’t see them all live. I kind of wish they’d be spread out over other nights but so far I don’t know how that would work with everything else that’s on.