NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.68
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.72
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.76
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.93
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.01
The Office final season 1.17
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

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With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU now effectively converged, I can't justify different predictions for them. Since their ratings (except for last week) have had them at or above the NBC scripted average each week, so they're both likely to be renewed. Of course, an old show like L&O:SVU can have the ratings for renewal, but its costs might drive it into being canceled. If the spring ratings don't paint a clearer picture, I'll wonder about that later.

A couple other changes this week that didn't make the headline. Whitney is downgraded to "likely to be canceled", and The New Normal is downgraded to "likely to be renewed". I'll get them into the headline in the weeks ahead. I promise!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • The Old Woman

    Is Grimm certain to be renewed? It’s ratings have been falling every week and not looking too great compared to other Friday shows like Shark Tank and Undercover boss.

    Also what is NBC planning to do on Fridays for the next 3 months? I hope it’s not Grimm repeats till people get bored of the show and stop watching.

  • TVDude

    I have to agree with everything. It’s possible for the sitcoms to be back on the bubble by May, but we will need data to predict that. If they don’t rise, I doubt they’ll be back. Chicago Fire has some potential, so I definitely think you put it in the right place. NBC seems more tolerant now than they were ten years ago.

  • tommy

    the new normal is i believe upgraded to likely renewal and not downgraded;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is Grimm certain to be renewed? It’s ratings have been falling every week and not looking too great compared to other Friday shows like Shark Tank and Undercover boss.”

    100% nonsense!

    Ratings vs. other networks are irrelevant PR fodder!

    Grimm ratings 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.5, 2.0, 1.8, 1.7, 1.6 are not, in fact, “falling every week”

  • SnakeTheCritic

    Well it’s the first Show since LIFE that I’ve enjoyed from The Peacock. So I’ll gingerly agree that it’s Likely to be renewed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “the new normal is i believe upgraded to likely renewal and not downgraded;)”

    No, it was “certain to be renewed”.

  • Jeff R.

    Is it possible for NBC to either have no new dramas next year or convert a comedy/reality slot into a drama one? If not, doesn’t that mean that looks safe right now will have to go?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is it possible for NBC to either have no new dramas next year or convert a comedy/reality slot into a drama one? If not, doesn’t that mean that looks safe right now will have to go?”

    Several options

    Thursday, 10pm is going to be scripted next season. Rock Center is clearly a stop gap.
    NBC could pull a “Smash” and hold a veteran drama until mid season, like Parenthood.
    Law & Order:SVU could be “retired”
    A sitcom hour could become a drama hour.

  • tommy

    oh, then I’m sorry, my mistake:)

  • tjw

    @Jeff R.

    There’s also the Friday 8:00pm slot that was vacated by Whitney and Community.

    And given how many comedies they’re losing (it looks like three hours’ worth right now), they would probably best be served switching one of those two hours to drama.

  • Derek

    I was wondering why sporting events numbers fluctuate because they are live when shows like The Voice, DWTS and Idol are live but don’t fluctuate. Can anyone tell me why that is?

  • Honey Badger

    With NBC who knows? After Football, The Voice, Go On, and Revolution , the rest have bad ratings and are bad shows. They all could be replaced

    The ratings will keep dropping, better get the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear ready

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I was wondering why sporting events numbers fluctuate because they are live when shows like The Voice, DWTS and Idol are live but don’t fluctuate. Can anyone tell me why that is?”

    Those reality shows are *taped* live and air live in the Eastern & Central time zones, but air during the same hours in all time zones.

    Sporting events are live in all time zones.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Still amazed that Revolution is doing well. Pretty much crap. Without some decent acting by Burke, Esposito and Lyons the show would be even worse. The writing is ridiculous, the directing sucks (how many times are a dozen militia men going to fire full auto at the lead characters IN CLOSE QUARTERS AND NOT HIT THEM EVEN ONCE?!), the premise is still stupid and the writers have clearly chosen to punt even a hint of an explanation for the “magical technology” they’ve invoked.

    Revolution is probably the worst sci-fi show on any network at this point. It’s worse than V, for sure, arguably worse than The Event, and nearly as bad as Terra Nova.

    Like Ringer, however, which did reasonably well in the first half of its season, I predict this shows ratings will collapse in the spring.

  • Just Desserts

    The New Normal is the new Pan Am. It might get more episodes because it’s a 30-minute comedy but it’s still getting canceled by May. :)

  • Brianna

    I see NBC giving SVU a 15th final season like they did with ER.

  • DW

    i wasnt a fan of revolution but i can see it being a hit as i can see the walking dead being a hit. they each take different paths in storytelling but both are pure escapist fantasy at its core.

  • Wright

    As long as Grimm and Revolution get renewed I’ll be happy!!!

  • Lanie Grace

    @RSH,

    …and nearly as bad as Terra Nova.

    ****************

    No reason to get that nasty!

    ;-)

    ~Lanie~

  • Mickey

    Glad to see Chicago Fire upgraded to Likely to be Renewed. I’ve already become really attached to the characters and would miss them if it were cancelled. Still a lot of variables, but as others have pointed out, NBC may well have room for it next year.

    It’s a bit of a Catch 22 though. I can’t hope for SVU’s ratings to drop to give CF a better chance, because SVU is CF’s lead-in.

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