NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.68
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.72
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.76
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.93
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.01
The Office final season 1.17
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

-
With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU now effectively converged, I can't justify different predictions for them. Since their ratings (except for last week) have had them at or above the NBC scripted average each week, so they're both likely to be renewed. Of course, an old show like L&O:SVU can have the ratings for renewal, but its costs might drive it into being canceled. If the spring ratings don't paint a clearer picture, I'll wonder about that later.

A couple other changes this week that didn't make the headline. Whitney is downgraded to "likely to be canceled", and The New Normal is downgraded to "likely to be renewed". I'll get them into the headline in the weeks ahead. I promise!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Melissa

    @Bill Gorman

    A few questions:

    1. How do you calculate the “Renew/Cancel Index”?
    2. Why do you only predict the fates of scripted shows?
    3. Why do you wipe the slate on January 1? If a show has a full season, do the networks only consider the second half of the season’s ratings when deciding the fate of it?

  • omabin

    Although I agree with you in that it does not make sense to have SVU and Chicago Fire with different predictions attached, I believe it would have been the other way around: both on the bubble. Too many variables for both. I want Chicago Fire renewed as I have come to really enjoy the show but I am not sure at all… It is beating its (albeit very low) pre-season expetations but that does not warrant it a renewal.

  • Holly

    @Melissa,

    Not Bill but…

    1. How do you calculate the “Renew/Cancel Index”?

    From the text just below the index: “The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network.”

    2. Why do you only predict the fates of scripted shows?

    Renewal/Cancel decisions for scripted shows generally follow a pattern but the same is not true for unscripted shows. A large part of that is that the cost structure of unscripted shows is often radically different than that of scripted shows so low ratings are more likely to be offset by exceptionally low costs.

    3. Why do you wipe the slate on January 1? If a show has a full season, do the networks only consider the second half of the season’s ratings when deciding the fate of it?

    Partly because shows tend to drop over the year and high ratings for the first month or so won’t outweigh low ratings in the last few months. Also, ratings tend to be higher overall in the fall, putting spring shows at a disadvantage in the index if the higher fall ratings are included for other shows (possibly skewing the results).

  • THE OLD MAN

    CF was pretty much a given, good news (I think), well for NBC anyway

  • Melissa

    @Holly

    From the text just below the index: “The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network.”

    Ah, must have missed that. I wish Bill posted each show’s 18–49 average next to their “Renew/Cancel Index”.

    Renewal/Cancel decisions for scripted shows generally follow a pattern but the same is not true for unscripted shows. A large part of that is that the cost structure of unscripted shows is often radically different than that of scripted shows so low ratings are more likely to be offset by exceptionally low costs.

    Oh, I see.

    Partly because shows tend to drop over the year and high ratings for the first month or so won’t outweigh low ratings in the last few months. Also, ratings tend to be higher overall in the fall, putting spring shows at a disadvantage in the index if the higher fall ratings are included for other shows (possibly skewing the results).

    So does that mean that the typically high opening ratings don’t matter? That doesn’t seem right, because the shows did earn the ratings, and they should count.

  • Holly

    @Melissa,

    So does that mean that the typically high opening ratings don’t matter? That doesn’t seem right, because the shows did earn the ratings, and they should count.

    The question the networks are trying to answer isn’t “how did the show perform last season?” it’s “how will this show perform next season if it is renewed?” So the premiere numbers are significantly less important than how the show performs most weeks, particularly in the later half of the season because those ratings are more indicative of how the show will perform than a couple of episodes at the beginning.

  • JulieDawn

    Really hope you’re right about Chicago Hope, I’ve grown quite attached to that show.

  • Nick

    NBC 2013-2014 schedule:

    Mon-
    8: The Voice/ The Biggest Loser
    10: The Eleventh Commandment (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Voice
    9: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (new)
    9:30: Go On
    10: Untitled Cuaron & Friedman Project (new)

    Wed-
    8: Parenthood
    9: Revolution
    10: Family Affair (new)

    Thu-
    8: Untitled Michael J. Fox project (new)
    8:30: Untitled Peter Murrieta Project (new)
    9: Parks & Recreation
    9:30: The New Normal
    10: Law & Order: SVU (full final season)

    Fri-
    8: Dateline
    9: Grimm
    10: Hench (new)

    Sat-
    8: Untitled MJF project (R)
    8:30: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (R)
    9: Dateline NBC
    10: Law & Order: SVU (R)

    Sun- (midseason)
    7: Dateline NBC
    8: Howie Mandel’s White Elephant/ The Biggest Loser
    9: The Celebrity Apprentice

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Ah, must have missed that. I wish Bill posted each show’s 18–49 average next to their “Renew/Cancel Index”.”

    We used to do that. Then Nielsen objected. We don’t do that now.

  • Miller Check

    Looks like this site actually made a decent prediction that’s going to be correct and that’s the fact that Chicago Fire is coming back for a second season.

  • bee

    I hope this prediction is right, I like Chicago Fire. I don’t watch SVU but have a question for you TVBTN smarties: Doesn’t SVU’s money-making potential as a syndicated show give it a boost over ChiFire in terms of chances for renewal?

  • Charlie Sheen

    “I hope this prediction is right, I like Chicago Fire. I don’t watch SVU but have a question for you TVBTN smarties: Doesn’t SVU’s money-making potential as a syndicated show give it a boost over ChiFire in terms of chances for renewal?”

    The decision won’t be made that way as both shows are in the same ship. They’ll be in a package deal for Dick Wolf. Both sides will likely come to a decision on when they’re ready for SVU to end its run.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Doesn’t SVU’s money-making potential as a syndicated show give it a boost over ChiFire in terms of chances for renewal?”

    Yep.

    But it’s also much more expensive.

    All of those numbers are hidden to the public. Who knows how they shake out.

  • Charlie Sheen

    “All of those numbers are hidden to the public. Who knows how they shake out.”

    Just like the CW financial numbers that determine what shows comeback each year.

  • Salias

    Both SVU and Chicago Fire are good shows – but I do feel Chicago Fire needs to be retool/revamped like what Wolf did with LOLA and SVU (season 13), Chicago Fire is too much a double to Trauma, how many people remember that show, canceled by NBC in 2010.

    I always turn to CSI after SVU goes off because Chicago Fire disappoints me with it’s exagerated plot lines. Until Wolf decides to make some cosmetic and behind the scenes changes, I’ll be at CSI.

    I’m not rooting for Chicago Fire’s cancellation, but if there’s no improvement, I’d be okay if NBC chose to cancel it at the end of the season to keep something more promising like Do No Harm or Deception!

  • Nikki

    Awesome to see Parenthood at certain to be renewed. Thats a great show, season 5 here we come. Is it because of syndication, or because it does well. Because i believe its close to syndication but its also a really great show.

  • ann

    I’m hoping Chicago Fire does live to see a 2nd season. Grimm is the only other NBC show I watch.

  • Barbie

    YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!! I’m SO invested I’m not even kidding!!!! I’ve been so in love with this show. YAY! Made. My. Night!!! <3 Now, if they'd kill Hallie so Casey would hook up with Dawson already!!!!

  • psychic

    Great. Another season of hot firefighters saying dramatic things.

  • Melissa

    @Bill Gorman

    We used to do that. Then Nielsen objected. We don’t do that now.

    Really? Why would they care?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures