NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.68
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.72
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.76
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.93
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.01
The Office final season 1.17
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

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With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU now effectively converged, I can't justify different predictions for them. Since their ratings (except for last week) have had them at or above the NBC scripted average each week, so they're both likely to be renewed. Of course, an old show like L&O:SVU can have the ratings for renewal, but its costs might drive it into being canceled. If the spring ratings don't paint a clearer picture, I'll wonder about that later.

A couple other changes this week that didn't make the headline. Whitney is downgraded to "likely to be canceled", and The New Normal is downgraded to "likely to be renewed". I'll get them into the headline in the weeks ahead. I promise!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • tjw

    @Melissa,

    It’s their data. They spend money gathering it and they make money selling it. So they probably don’t care too much for other people compiling their data in ways they already do and sell to networks and advertisers.

  • Remote Patrolled

    @RSH

    I agree. The Revolution Fall finale was pretty dreadful. I’m checking out now. Not enough happened to make it must see in the Spring. Just wish I hadn’t spent several weeks watching the show this Fall!

  • Michael

    In regards to a “new” Drama:

    NBC could cancel Whitney and GWK, and change a slot or two to add a drama by deleting 2 comedies (for an hour drama) Right??

    I mean…I HOPE NBC gives SVU a more proper sendoff than the previous Law and Order :(

  • Concerned Citizen

    Just renew Parks and Recreation and Parenthood and I’ll be happy. I’d say Community as well, but I’ve already mourned its inevitable death.

  • spence29@hotmail.com

    Revolution is bad, but its not The Event.
    Its entertaining but in a comically way.

  • Patrick G.

    Good God, Lanie Grace is back? I thought you disappeared for good! Too bad you didn’t! I have to laugh at your comment accusing RSH of being “too nasty.” You were FAR WORSE with all your vitriol directed at “V” and sci-fi fan boys back in 2009/2010. Do us all a favor and crawl back under the rock you mysteriously decided to come out from under! Now THERE’S some nasty for ya, you bi#%& !!

  • Buddy G

    I like Chicago Fire. The cast looks perfect. They trying to make the characters appealing. The storyline with the evil cop was pretty good. The only funny thing about CF is the rescues or when they do the actual work. It last only 3 minutes or less. There’s not much action. It doesn’t come close to what “Emergency” did.

  • senor chang

    @Patrick G
    What’s wrong with you?

  • senor chang

    @Patrick G
    Actually, my first comment was a bit flippant. Just…go get professional help. Seriously. Putting this much stock into comments on a TV ratings website cannot be healthy.

  • Trice Crew

    Chicago Fire and SVU are probably sure fire bets to return. I think the only way SVU gets cancelled is if they announce a final season for SVU. It should be interesting to see how the other dramas play out like Infamous, Smash, Do No Harm, Hannibal, and a few others.

    Despite the ratings I can see NBC keeping all of their multi-cams Whitney, Guys with Kids, and now Up All Night. I think their just looking to rebuild their comedy roster.

  • Reese

    Wht affects chances of renewal or cancellation for a show more : how it performs against shows of the same network of the same timeslot on diff days or how it does against its cmpetition on other netwrks in the same time slot on the same day?

  • senor chang

    @Reese
    Definitely the former: you can predict the vast majority of renewal/cancellation decisions just by seeing how shows perform relative to other shows on their respective networks.

    Competition against other networks only matters in regard to 1) press releases and 2) support on the night (tougher competition means a tougher uphill climb for shows going against megahits; note that this doesn’t get factored into the absolute ratings, but putting ratings in context matters too).

  • Jesse Cardoza

    That is great news I really hope it does happen.

  • Honey Badger

    As was predicted by the posters on tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com last year the multitude of singing and talent shows were going to lower the ratings for all singing and talent shows.

    Gone are the days of American Idol with rocket 18 – 49 ratings and 20 million viewers.
    In response to lower ratings on talent shows, American idol and The X Factor on Fox decided to be more controversial and create controversy and buzz. That has failed for both shows and I predict when American idol returns with their new controversial judges, the ratings will tank.

    Looks like NBC has won the singing shows war, with The Voice. I think it is because the show is more positive and do not bring on singers just to make fun of them. The Judges also seem genuinely interested in helping all the singers on the show.
    It looks like they finally found a person who can be a star in Cassadee Pope she keeps topping the charts on iTunes, thus proving her commercial viability.
    Cassadee Pope had the number 2 song on iTunes this week.
    Last week Cassadee Pope hitting number one on iTunes, which is a huge feat to do, with her emotional rendition of Blake Shelton’s song, Over You (The Voice Performance), and she continues to hover in the top 13 on iTunes with this song.
    This week she was number 2 on iTunes with the song Are You Happy Now? (The Voice Performance) – Cassadee Pope.
    Cassadee Pope currently has two songs in the top 15 on iTunes; she is a star already and will only get better.

  • thinking out loud

    @Bill Gorman, Please explain why you are bullish on TNN and sorta bearish on Scandal. I mean TNN’s ratings are wretched. I know it’s winning the slot but still it’s a bad show with bad ratings. Whereas Scandal has rarely (not sure ever), fallen below a 2.0. and is well written even if a bit soapish. Help? If not Bill, someone please…explain the difference in expectations.

  • POIFanatic

    I actually believe Revolution is THE next big thing. None of the other sci-fi shows had this pull. Even with the mediocre writing, the viewers are attached to these characters. The absolutely brilliant finale with an arguably award winning performance by Lyons and a few shining spots here and there makes me feel the show will only improve with time.

    Glad Go On is certain to be cancelled as well. Only shows I watch on NBC.

  • Holly

    @thinking out loud,

    Bill Gorman, Please explain why you are bullish on TNN and sorta bearish on Scandal… If not Bill, someone please…explain the difference in expectations.

    First of all, Bill has both listed as “likely renewal” right now. That aside, they are on different networks. The Voice and football are helping NBC’s ratings a lot and Revolution is doing very well, but overall NBC’s scripted ratings are still rather low. Per the index, The New Normal is doing slightly above average for NBC. Scandal, on the other hand is below the average for ABC (.85 on the index). So, relative to the other scripted shows on their respective networks, TNN is doing better than Scandal. Also, ABC has 5 dramas doing better than Scandal while NBC has only 2 comedies doing better, which also helps its chances over Scandal.

  • POIFanatic

    certain to be renewed*

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @thinking out loud, not only was Holly’s explanation excellent, but she was a lot nicer than I’d have been. Of course.

  • thinking out loud

    @Holly thanks. I think I get it. Because NBC has to air something, even poorly written, and acted shows (like TNN), with cable ratings, can survive.

    I mean it got a 1.5 last week.

    @Bill Gorman in general you are pretty nice. I now understand the different standards thing. Still. It would seem all networks are in the business of making money and so I’d think (not very astute about this stuff), NBC would cancel a poorly received show and replace it with something that stands a chance of improving the network overall.

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