NBC: 'Chicago Fire' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 27th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-November 25, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.68
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.72
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.76
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.93
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.01
The Office final season 1.17
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

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With the ratings for Chicago Fire and Law & Order:SVU now effectively converged, I can't justify different predictions for them. Since their ratings (except for last week) have had them at or above the NBC scripted average each week, so they're both likely to be renewed. Of course, an old show like L&O:SVU can have the ratings for renewal, but its costs might drive it into being canceled. If the spring ratings don't paint a clearer picture, I'll wonder about that later.

A couple other changes this week that didn't make the headline. Whitney is downgraded to "likely to be canceled", and The New Normal is downgraded to "likely to be renewed". I'll get them into the headline in the weeks ahead. I promise!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’d think (not very astute about this stuff), NBC would cancel a poorly received show and replace it with something that stands a chance of improving the network overall.”

    I think that the disconnect is occurring within your definition of “poorly received”.

    For the networks “poorly received” = low rated.

    As Holly noted, for NBC The New Normal is not low rated.

  • thinking out loud

    @ Bill Gorman, Hmmm. I don’t think there is a disconnect. I think you are making a chicken/egg argument. It’s circular and leaves you where you started. A 1.5 is a low rating. Kinda like a D is a low grade. If you’re grading NBC on a curve because the network is so sh^tty that “For” NBC it’s not low rated…how do you ever improve as a whole?

    I’m not arguing your assessment now that I understand what you are saying. I’m just confused about why even though it’s good for them they would settle for good for “them” when they are so far behind the pack in terms of viewers? Obviously they have to air something but why renew the best of the worst instead of taking the chance on replacing it with something that’s “actually” good and could bring ratings that would be considered good for say…CBS? Isn’t that the real goal in terms of demanding revenue?

  • Birdsht

    Lucky us… More sub par, cookie cutter, garbage network drama gets to continue filling a time slot.

  • Whatever

    I think someone’s hate for The New Normal has clouded their intelligence.

    The New Normal is doing pretty good on NBC. NBC has other shows with less ratings that are failing that they will most likely replace with new shows. So in conclusion, NBC will replace their bad rated shows with possibly good shows that could be a hit and bring in those good ratings. So no it would not make sense to replace a moderately good rated show with a new show that is not a 100 percent likely to be a hit when they can just replace they’re badly rated shows with a possible new hit.

  • Nick

    @thinking out loud

    A 1.5 is a low rating. Kinda like a D is a low grade.

    For NBC, a 1.5 is not that low. And it’s not like the New Nornal has constanly been getting 1.5s, in fact, for the most part, it’s been getting a 1.7/1.8.
    And BTW, a D is a passing grade…

  • Anita

    I am so glad that Grimm is going to be renew..And I hope Chicago Fire will be too..Best shows in a long time.

  • thinking out loud

    @Whatever I don’t hate TNN. I hate really bad writing and worse acting. I love Andrew Rannells. TNN is just a bad show. Yes. I got the point that it is doing well considering how poorly NBC is doing in general. A 1.5 (yes I saw the recovery 1.7)is not moderately good for network TV unless (maybe I need to adjust my view of NBC), we equate NBC to Fox and CW.

    Even Bill downgraded it after the 1.5(I think). It was still one of the best on NBC…no? All I’m arguing is at some point you realize you have a bad seed and the baby goes out with the bathwater and you start over shooting for excellence. Still, maybe I’m wrong. I come here every blue moon to see how shows I’m invested in are doing. From my viewer centered pov at some point bad is bad no matter which network it is. I’d like to see good scripted tv.

    Moving on.

  • omabin

    NBC Schedule for next year

    Monday
    The Voice/The Biggest Looser
    The Voice/The Biggest Looser
    New Drama

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    New Comedy (they just need to launch more comedies, so they can’t keep the ones they have here)
    New Comedy
    Parenthood/Smash

    Wednesday
    New Drama (Crossbones?) [there is no drama at this spot apart from Arrow, they should let the comedies go and try a drama]
    Revolution [if Revolution survives in good shape, it should try to hold a night… give it the lead-in of a drama with potential that is compatible and do a night of dramas]
    Hannibal

    Thursday [this day is still a bit awful mainly because Go On will not be strong enough to lead a night and the first hour is mainly burnoff because nothing can stand its own against the chuck lore power hour but i dont see what else they can do]
    Parks and Recreation
    Community/The New Normal (Best out of 2)
    Go On
    1600 Penn
    Deception/ Chicago Fire

    Friday
    Do No Harm
    Grimm
    SVU: Final Season

  • Tessa

    @Richard Steven Hack

    Couldn’t agree more about Revolution. I started watching with high hopes. But more than the bad acting and lack of logic it’s the silly underlying theme that irks me. Everyone – and by that I mean EVERYONE – does everything for THEIR FAMILY. There is practically no other motive, theme, or twist on this show. Everyone and their dog has/had a wife/husband and a bunch of kids they either lost (for whom they eternally grieve and make sure we get the full load of it,) or has to protect, which is an excuse for them to do what the plot demands of them. The only exception is Miles whom we found out had a thing for Monroe (I suppose) and is now catching the disease slowly by considering the useless Matheson children his family.

  • Lane

    Is Revolution even that good? I stopped watching scripted fantasy dramas on NBC after they cancelled the Event.

    I’m sad to see Whitney tank. I love that show.

    Otherwise I’m okay with the ratings situation. I really used to like Up All Night but I don’t as much anymore.

    However, I really wish NBC would cancel Parenthood. That show is so stupid.

  • Bob

    Any chance at all that Guys with Kids gets renewed????

  • POIFanatic

    @Lane: Revolution’s fall finale rivaled the best of the best. Haters will keep on hatin’ not seeing the progress its making. But that episode blew it out of the park and had Emmy-worthy acting and writing.

  • omabin

    @Bob, I think there is a chance, albeit a small one, that ABC decides to stick with family multi-cam sitcoms such as Up All Night and Guys with Kids, even if it is for a trial-run. But as I’ve said, I don’t think this is very likely with the current ratings situation. Things could have turned out differently for Guys with Kids had it followed a more compatible show from the beginning.

  • richard

    @ thinking out loud.

    i get what your saying. however, maybe its that thibg where networks are on the decline every year for the past 30 years. so they know they cant. but then again, you said cbs ratings now so we’ll go there. yeah, you think they would want to try that. however, if they take a big gamble like that and it fails they are royally screwed. if shows can keep them at the level they are now, they also need to survive and be around. but yeah,, if i was running a tv network, i would definitely fantasize about wiping the slate clean

    dont take my coment with much weight. i know very little about what im talking about, but for whatever reason,i feel the need to at least attempt to come up with at least a half coherent answer ;)

  • richard

    .

  • richard

    i like chicago fire, grimm and parenthood.

    are they as good as boomtown, breaking bad, king of the hill, malcolm in the middle, awake, dexter, or justified?

    no, but i still like them. chicago fire was definitely a surprise. i expected nothing from it, watched the pilot early on demand, and it was terrible. but then a couple weeks later, i watched the 2nd episode, and i liked it. its actually a good show, once you get past that abysmal pilot.

  • Honey Badger

    Rainn Wilson (who plays Dwight on The Office on NBC), told everybody not to watch The Office. He got his wish.
    Laugh it up Funny Boy! That is what you get for making fun of teenage actors dealing with becoming adults and trying to find their place in this world.

    The Office notched a series low 1.9 among adults 18-49 down 10% from a 2.1 on November 15

    Rainn Wilson parodies Angus T. Jones by begging fans to not watch ‘The Office’
    http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2012/11/rainn-wilson-parodies-angus-t-jones-by-begging-fans-to-not-watch-the-office.html

    The difference is Two and a Half Men has viewers.
    Rainn Wilson doesn’t have to beg fans to not watch ‘The Office’, nobody is watching now.
    So Rainn Wilson joke is an epic fail.
    No wonder no one watches The Office, NBC cannot be happy. I think this kind of stuff did cost him his spinoff show. ‘The Office’ spinoff ‘The Farm’ isn’t happening, Rainn Wilson says

  • Petar

    @Revolution’s fall finale rivaled the best of the best. Haters will keep on hatin’ not seeing the progress its making. But that episode blew it out of the park and had Emmy-worthy acting and writing.

    True. But quality is not ratings, RVN don’t need to be next fringe or TGW – lower rated shows with tons of awards….NBC must try to be next at least ONCE if not TWD. HIT show like now not award show. Lets see where nbc move it after first season. I guess will be lead-in in tuesday or wednesday. NBC/WB must sell it to internet streaming like cable serilezed shows do this. Hate this big hiatus. ABC make the same mistak last year with revenge. But Revenge have really good season so far so may be in the end is right tactic. The guy that make that move came to NBC from abc.

  • Kevin

    Why not renewed REVOLUTION for another season? I’m always hooked on this great action/adventure series from the dynamic duo of Eric Kripke & J.J. Abrams. :-)

  • Isabella

    I like Chicago Fire and hope it will stick around a while. I like Jesse Spencer, always did on House, and glad to see him have his “own” show now.

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