With The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens, M.D. now both officially canceled, we probably won't hear any cancellation news about the fall shows for months. Sure, series are airing some originals over the next couple of months, but the next big focused blast of interest in the ratings will come with the arrival of the mid-season shows. Purists might insist that "Waiting for mid-season' season doesn't officially begin for another few weeks, but that's like saying Christmas trees shouldn't be put up until Christmas Eve when the Christmas tree lots spring up a few days after Halloween...
How Come the Renew/Cancel Index Says Chicago Fire and Nashville Are Likely to Be Renewed But This Says They're "On The Bubble"
There are questions like that every week and it is mostly explained every week in the "This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index" portion of the red disclaimer below. The Renew/Cancel Index predicts what would happen if the season were to end today. If the season were to end today Chicago Fire and Nashville are likely renewals! But the season isn't ending today and unlike the Renew/Cancel Index, I'm not making predictions based on what would happen if the season ended today. Either I'll ultimately change and align with Bill's predictions or he'll change and align with mine. Or in this case even both! If I had to guess, I'd guess I wind up lining up with the R/C Index for Chicago Fire and Bill winds up lining up with the Bubble Watch for Nashville. We'll see!
"How Come The Middle Isn't a Certain Renewal!? It Should Be a Certain Renewal!!!"
Those sorts of questions crop up every week too, but they're reasonable questions. I sometimes draw arbitrary lines between "certain" and "likely" and I don't see that changing. I'm not worried (at all) about The Middle being renewed. It's virtually a shoo-in for renewal but it's not a shoo-in for renewal nearly to the degree Modern Family is, so arbitrarily I give The Middle some separation from Modern Family. Similarly the ratings for Two and a Half Men say certain renewal, but I have it as only a likely renewal. That has nothing to do with Angus T. Jones losing his mind, it is just a "very old show = very expensive to produce" thing. Is that hair splitting on my part? Absolutely. It's also hair splitting to pick those designations apart. Ever it was, every it shall always be!
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Scandal | ABC | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| The Cleveland Show | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
@DeanW
hey i agree with you about
the neighbors – renewed
but i disagree with you about
elementary – cancelled
csi ny – renewed
Revenge – certain renewal !! That’s all I care about ..
My predictions for bubble shows:
Happy Endings ABC : Renewed somewhere, somehow
Last Man Standing ABC : Renewed for full season
Malibu Country ABC : Renewed for full season
Nashville ABC : Renewed for full season
Neighbors, The ABC : Cancelled
Scandal ABC : Renewed for short season
CSI: NY CBS : Cancelled
The Good Wife CBS : Renewed for short final season
The Mentalist CBS : Renewed
90210 CW : Renewed for short final season
Hart Of Dixie CW : Renewed for full season
Nikita CW : Renewed for full final season
Beauty And The Beast CW : Cancelled
The Mindy Project Fox : Cancelled
Chicago Fire NBC : Cancelled
Whitney NBC : Cancelled
I’m going against the grain. Vegas will not be cancelled.
“Waiting for midseason season” has already started. Kinda like how the first Christmas catalog came on Labor Day…
I’m looking forward to these in midseason:
Zero Hour
Red Widow
How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life)
Golden Boy
Cult
The Goodwin Games
Crossbones
However, the only networks that look like they’re going to get a boost from their midseason shows are ABC, CW & Fox. CBS & NBC have terrible track record with midseason shows. The only show on those networks that premiered in midseason in the last few years is Parenthood. All of their new shows will flop, except maybe Golden Boy if its scheduled right (hint hint Tue@10 hint hint)
The Goodwin Games & HTLWYP look like the perfect shows to rejuvenate ABC Weds. and Fox Tues.
The Following will certainly premiere well. However, it may become a second Alcatraz and turn from a hit to a flop.
Cult and The Carrie Diaries will do well if The CW treats them well. They did a good job with scheduling TCD, but they have to make a decision on Cult.
The Family Tools isn’t going to work.
Red Widow seems like a good show, but something TV viewers in general wouldn’t like, like Missing last year. However, it is close to the ABC brand, an advantage Zero Hour doesn’t have.
@Honey Badger
Thanks
Really like your post here Robert, and if I had to guess, my best guess would be I would probably guess the same as you & Bill re: CF & Nashville.
I sure hope that Kevin can bring the bacon home for FOX, ’cause my best guess would be I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes right about now.
I think Last Man Standing is a great show and I like The Middle. I would be shock if they get cancelled.
@Tessa, re Spartacus 666 and his (her?) blablabla:
LMAO!
Thank you, I needed that this afternoon.
@ Aleksander eide
OK Elementary will get a second season and CSI: NY a tenth. The question is which one will be canceled: The Mentalist or The Good Wife ? My bet is on TGW.
Last year I picked 4 shows that were listed as Likely/Certain Cancellation and batted .500 … I was slightly surprised I wasn’t at .750 … just a few years ago I would have likely been at .000 if I had even been silly enough to make such picks. To me anyways this shows where network TV is headed … hold your nose and get to the magic 88 and hope to make it up on the backend.
This season I’m going to do something I feel is a bit bolder and harder to do … I invite others to join me … I’m going to pick 4 shows that are Likely/Certain Renewal and say they will not be returning. I won’t make my final picks until the spring when the boys make theirs … but my early favorites are (in no order):
1. Castle
2. Once Upon a Time
3. Supernatural
4. Revolution
5. Bones
6. 2.5 Men
7. The New Normal
Obvioulsy there’s a lot of ratings left so these picks can change and I have to trim out 3 anyways to make it just the 4 picks.
ymmv
“But… but maybe he’s only a little crazy like painters or composers or… or some of those men in Washington.” — Julian Shellhammer (Philip Tonge)
Clairifcation edit:
“Last year I picked 4 shows that I said would be returning that were listed as Likely/Certain Cancellation and batted .500 …”
@deanw
same here and i also think that the neighbors will get an second season:)))
but an question does the creation of your username come from dean winchester(supernatural) since it is deanw?
Translation for those that do not speak 11 year-old fanboi.
Enough with Bones and Supernatural! Get a life actors! And Revenge, talk about sinking to the bottom of the barrel. Of course superior shows like Last Resort are too intelligent for the masses and the brain dead singing reality shows like The X Factor and American Idol. Best show on TV is coming in January. That, of course, is Spartacus.
There, still doesn’t make that much sense, but it’s the best I could do without a wand.
The only show I will miss if it isn’t picked up by another network is Last Resort.
@ Aleksander eide
Yes my user comes fron Dean Winchester. Im a huge fan of Supernatural and Dean is my favorite of the two !
*username, sorry
The Following?? Bacon? FF
@deanw
what do you mean by your last comment
*username, sorry
Can’t wait for The Followibg and Hannibal !
Bring on “the Following”? why? on FX maybe ..and Bacon’s charisma and power’s ? wait and see