Bubble Watch: It's (a Wonderful?) "Waiting for Mid-Season" Season -- Bring on 'The Following!"

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 2nd, 2012

With The Mob Doctor and Emily Owens, M.D. now both officially canceled, we probably won't hear any cancellation news about the fall shows for months. Sure, series are airing some originals over the next couple of months, but the next big focused blast of interest in the ratings will come with the arrival of the mid-season shows. Purists might insist that "Waiting for mid-season' season doesn't officially begin for another few weeks, but that's like saying Christmas trees shouldn't be put up until Christmas Eve when the Christmas tree lots spring up a few days after Halloween...

How Come the Renew/Cancel Index Says Chicago Fire and Nashville Are Likely to Be Renewed But This Says They're "On The Bubble"

There are questions like that every week and  it is mostly explained every week in the "This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index" portion of the red disclaimer below. The Renew/Cancel Index predicts what would happen if the season were to end today. If the season were to end today Chicago Fire and Nashville are likely renewals! But the season isn't ending today and unlike the Renew/Cancel Index, I'm not making predictions based on what would happen if the season ended today.  Either I'll ultimately change and align with Bill's predictions or he'll change and align with mine. Or in this case even both! If I had to guess, I'd guess I wind up lining up with the R/C Index for Chicago Fire and Bill winds up lining up with the Bubble Watch for Nashville. We'll see!

"How Come The Middle Isn't a Certain Renewal!? It Should Be a Certain Renewal!!!"

Those sorts of questions crop up every week too, but they're  reasonable questions. I sometimes draw arbitrary lines between "certain" and "likely" and I don't see that changing.  I'm not worried (at all) about The Middle being renewed. It's virtually a shoo-in for renewal but it's not a shoo-in for renewal nearly to the degree Modern Family is, so arbitrarily I give The Middle some separation from Modern Family. Similarly the ratings for Two and a Half Men say certain renewal, but I have it as only a likely renewal. That has nothing to do with Angus T. Jones losing his mind, it is just a "very old show = very expensive to produce" thing.  Is that hair splitting on my part? Absolutely. It's also hair splitting to pick those designations apart. Ever it was, every it shall always be!

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Neighbors, The ABC On The Bubble
Scandal ABC On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
Chicago Fire NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
CSI CBS Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
The Cleveland Show Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Honey Badger

    With NBC who knows? After Football, The Voice, Go On, and Revolution , the rest have bad ratings. The rest of the TV shows all could be replaced and many NBC television shows ratings will keep dropping.

    NBC Sunday Night NFL Football and The Voice are they only things saving NBC, and are going to be big ratings hits for next year. The Voice will never achieve the ratings American Idol used to have years ago for Fox, But NBC will be happy that The Voice ratings will be higher than X Factor and American Idol on Fox.

    As was predicted by the posters on tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com last year the multitude of singing and talent shows were going to lower the ratings for all singing and talent shows.

    Gone are the days of American Idol with rocket 18 – 49 ratings and 20 million viewers.
    In response to lower ratings on talent shows, American idol and The X Factor on Fox decided to be more controversial and create controversy and buzz. That has failed for both shows and I predict when American idol returns with their new controversial judges, the ratings will tank.

    Looks like NBC has won the singing shows war, with The Voice. I think it is because the show is more positive and do not bring on singers just to make fun of them. The Judges also seem genuinely interested in helping all the singers on the show.
    It looks like they finally found a person who can be a star in Cassadee Pope she keeps topping the charts on iTunes, thus proving her commercial viability.
    Cassadee Pope had the number 2 song on iTunes this week.
    Last week Cassadee Pope hitting number one on iTunes, which is a huge feat to do, with her emotional rendition of Blake Shelton’s song, Over You (The Voice Performance), and she continues to hover in the top 13 on iTunes with this song.
    This week she was number 2 on iTunes with the song Are You Happy Now? (The Voice Performance) – Cassadee Pope.
    Cassadee Pope currently has two songs in the top 15 on iTunes; she is a star already and will only get better.

  • DeanW

    @ Pepper

    I disagree with you about CSI: NY. I think CBS will cancel The Good Wife and move Hawaii Five-0 to Sunday at 9/8c to replace it. After all maybe CBS will cancel neither and move The Good Wife to Friday at 8/7c for its 13-episodes final season. The two other will remain to their actual slot.

    My guess 2013-2013 CBS schedule:

    FRIDAY
    8:00PM – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00PM – CSI: NY
    10:00PM – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00PM – The Amazing Race
    9:00PM – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00PM – TheMentalist

    CBS could premiere new Dramas on Monday at 10, Tuesday at 10 and Friday at 8 (they can also renew Rules of Engagement for a 13 episodes 8th season and pair it with a new Comedy on Friday at 8 and 8:30).

  • kennya

    When are midseason schedules usually be released? …

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    Will The Following develop a following and will the shows that follows The Following develop a following of its own? If The Following does not develeop a following will the show that follows The Following follow The Following off the cliff? Do you follow me? And what impact will this have on the followers of the 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon – could it spiral completely out of control? Mmmmmmm Bacon, Im getting hungry for BLT.

  • NJ Viewer

    If Vegas is listed as a Likely Cancellation, why does CBS say that it’s the #1 new show of the season? Is that just PR BS, or is it because every other new show sucks worse?

  • Holly

    @NJ Viewer,

    If Vegas is listed as a Likely Cancellation, why does CBS say that it’s the #1 new show of the season? Is that just PR BS, or is it because every other new show sucks worse?

    I’d go with option 1. It’s lower rated than quite a few new shows in the demo, and lower in total viewers than at least Elementary.

  • Brandy

    @Pepper, I disagree with you about 90210.Mark said last spring when he renewed GG”I believe in giving veteran shows a final season” and it’s ratings are /have been what GG were when it got a final season.Just cause it has bad ratings dosent mean much,otherwise Nikita would’ve been cancelled last season along with GG.Plus twice so far this season, 90210 has gotten. 0.5-0.6& over a million viewers,proving it bounces back when it hits lows and still has life in it.More episodes is better for syndication -and I fully believe 90210 will get a syndication deal-and earns more money from Netflix.Why give OTH(though with still decent ratings)& GG short final seasons but not 90210?Also ratings don’t mean as much as the money shows make and through Netflix,iTunes ect, and DVD sales,international sales and I’m fairly sure soon a syndication deal, 90210 makes decent to good money for CW. 90210 has done well online and in dvr which is important to CW.CW cant put more than 4-5 new shows on next season either.Also,with GG,EO gone soon, that already opens two spots on CW schedule next year.I agree Beauty is probably more Likley to be cancelled.But to a certain degree I agree that Beauty and Harts renwal depends on how Cult and Carrie Diaries do Midseason but also how do they do online and internationaly.

  • jimbo

    I don’t think NBC cancel Up all night and Guys with kids together. I’m sure GWK seems to have more potential because the chemistry between casts is so good! And it should have given the time slot after the voice. This show will have similar viewers with parenthood. And NBC should rethink Thursday comedy line.

  • POIFanatic

    @Honey Badger:

    “NBC will be happy that The Voice ratings will be higher than X Factor and American Idol on Fox.”

    No way will The Voice top American Idol next season! I don’t see that happening.

  • jAY

    All of the Fox cartoons are safe. Fox is not going to cancel its entire animation domination line up even though its being dominated by the NFL.

  • Honey Badger

    POIFanatic
    Posted December 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM “
    @Honey Badger:
    “NBC will be happy that The Voice ratings will be higher than X Factor and American Idol on Fox.”
    No way will The Voice top American Idol next season! I don’t see that happening “

    Well, Fox has seen the ratings for American Idol having large drops for the last few seasons. They replaced judges to help the ratings but they picked the wrong judges.
    I will stick to my analysis.
    In response to lower ratings on “ American idol “ Fox decided to be more controversial and create controversy and buzz. That has failed and I predict when American idol returns with their new controversial judges, the ratings will tank.

    Another reason I think they will tank is because the show is just too mean.
    Looks like NBC has won the singing shows war, with The Voice. I think it is because the show is more positive and do not bring on singers just to make fun of them. The Judges also seem genuinely interested in helping all the singers on the show.

  • Mary 1

    I was wondering if networks ever look at how their shows sell internationally before deciding whether to cancel them or not? Does it matter if a show that’s not as popular in the US, is very popular in some other country? Also how much money is in the international market? I’m just curious as I see some tv shows are shown in several countries while others are not.

  • Robin

    I’m getting to this article by clicking on the “USA’s ‘Necessary Roughness’ Renewed; Still No Word on TNT’s ‘Leverage’- Scripted Cable Renew/Cancel Status Through” link on the first page. Where’s the article that goes with that link? Or is it just me?

  • Holly

    @Mary 1,

    I was wondering if networks ever look at how their shows sell internationally before deciding whether to cancel them or not?

    Can it be a factor? Theoretically yes. In practice, not nearly as important as US ratings, cable syndication, cost of production, and probably a few other factors. CSI: Miami was one of the most watched US dramas in the world, but it was still canceled (the CSIs swept the top three last year). Also, since the networks don’t get the money, the production companies do, they aren’t likely to make decisions based on money they’ll never see.

    Does it matter if a show that’s not as popular in the US, is very popular in some other country?

    For shows not named Baywatch? No. There has been quite a bit of talk about Nikita’s international success, but very little evidence thereof and its US ratings weren’t dramatically worse than the shows that were canceled. Also, The CW works on a slightly different model, so that would not apply to the major nets.

    Also how much money is in the international market?

    We don’t get any figures on how well shows sell overseas, no body does really. They simply are not made public.

  • Honey Badger

    Scandal ABC On The Bubble, Nashville ABC On The Bubble, and Revenge ABC Certain Renewal on Bubble Watch December 2nd, 2012

    So I am predicting ABC will cancel Scandal and renew Revenge, and they will also cancel Nashville since they had 1.8 rating last week. Scandal and Nashville are new and too far away for syndication

    @ CrimTV
    Posted November 27, 2012 at 12:26 PM
    I think they should cancel Scandal at the end of this season it’ll have just 30 episodes, when a usual 2 season series would have 44 and above. It’ll take another 2 and a half seasons to reach syndication! ”

  • The End

    Some networks also look at sustainability. Especially if the numbers aren’t that great, but need something to fill in the gaps.

    Will said show grow its audience? Will it keep the current audience, or will it collapse?

    Valid when thinking about renewal. Just throwing that out there. As from what I can see, will apply to some bubble shows on that list.

  • Mary 1

    thanks for the info Holly. I wasn’t sure how it worked.

  • simsalabim

    Vegas will be canned for sure with these numbers. But who’s fault is it?
    The show has(had) potential, but they took a mobster show and filmed it in the style of a typical CBS cop drama. The recipe for BOOOOORING!

    The Scripts were awful so far, nothing gripping, nothing that makes you say “wow!”

    I prefer “Magic City”, much better!

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