Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 |  |
0.52 |
| Happy Endings |  |
0.60 |
| Private Practice | canceled | 0.61 |
| 666 Park Avenue | canceled | 0.65 |
| Last Resort | canceled | 0.66 |
| Last Man Standing (F) | |
0.68 |
| Malibu Country (F) | |
0.71 |
| Scandal |  |
0.86 |
| Castle | |
0.87 |
| Nashville | |
0.87 |
| The Neighbors | |
0.90 |
| The Middle |  |
1.09 |
| Suburgatory | |
1.12 |
| Revenge | |
1.13 |
| Once Upon A Time | |
1.40 |
| Grey's Anatomy | |
1.48 |
| Modern Family | |
2.05 |
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Sophomore sitcom Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 didn't start well this season, and its ratings completely tanked in its later episodes. It's been certain to be canceled for quite some time, but hadn't been in the headline after its downgrade.
I've seen enough of the ratings for The Neighbors, Nashville and Scandal to move them into the "likely renewed" category. As always, future ratings changes, particularly early in 2013, can mean prediction changes, stay tuned.
Happy Endings' woeful ratings this season has me close to breaking my own rules about third season shows and moving its current prediction to "likely canceled". It's in a third season that would normally have me keep it as a "toss up" since the syndication gods (and a crazy deal making producer, Sony) have shown an ability to keep even terribly rated sitcoms alive. If I downgrade it in the future, I'll call a technicality in that it won't have the "typical" 66 episodes at the end of its third season.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
-
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
ABC has a history of canceling sitcoms in their third season. 8 Simple Rules was 12 episodes shy after its third season of hitting ’88′, and they still canceled it, although its ratings were nothing worse than mediocre. I doubt ‘Happy Endings’ manages to return.
What are the rules in regards to shows moving to cable (ala Cougar Town to TBS)? Does the studio suggest it, and then the originating network has to agree, and then the buying network has to agree?
I ask because it seems like it would be something Sony might do. A Happy Endings/Cougar Town pairing on TBS sounds pretty good to me.
@Jeff,
The original network has to cancel the show first and release the production company from their contract. Then the production company can shop the show to other nets. If they come to an agreement with a cable network, they make a new contract with them. Sony can’t sell Happy Endings until ABC cancels it.
8 Simple Rules was years ago and was in a unique situation having been derailed by John Ritters death.
ABC also did this to Less Than Perfect and Hope and Faith, both of which they owned. Of course, the business has changed, and I think the 88 episode syndication deal is a more recent development.
That said, I still see HE coming back, even if not on ABC.
I’m highly interested in seeing how Shark Tank’s “special” Tuesday outing does tonight. If it’s successful, I don’t think that ABC would hesitate to move it to a different night. I figure that a 2.0 on Friday would be a mid two during a week day, which ABC would be happy to have anywhere. Of all of the schedules for next season, I’m most curious to see ABC’s because they will have to do something with DWTS if it continues to fall in the spring.
@Holly
Thanks for the info. So (it’s kind of weird to say this) I guess I’m hoping ABC cancels Happy Endings, if anything just to get this ball rolling!
Happy Endings, the falling Nashville now at 1.8 rating , and Scandal will all be canceled by ABC
all doing poorly and no chance for Syndication.
go get em Cancellation Bear
They also still managed to sell 8 Simple Rules into syndication without hitting 88 episodes.
Glad to see OUAT, Revenge, and Scandal doing well as usual. Merry Christmas to you all and have a Happy New Year for when we re-convene again after the holidays
Happy Endings has the edgy kind of humor that could make it more viable to sell to a cable network like TBS or Comedy Central, either in an exclusive syndication deal or outright acquisition like Cougar Town was to TBS. Sony is probably in talks with one of those networks to figure out if either can happen. Like Cougar Town, what helps Happy Endings is that ABC Studios also has skin in the game.
the fact that don’t trust the b is being cancelled when the neighbors will likely renew has me questioning my faith in america. or at least the nielson viewers.
@gerry – The Neighbor’s ratings are a product of its timeslot, and I doubt that it will be renewed next season. Better With You did similar numbers out of The Middle two seasons ago and did not make the cut either.
There’s still a chance Neighbors could go the same way as Better With You, although I seem to recall BWY had slightly worse relative ratings.
If the syndication gods can save Nikita they can save Happy Endings, surely?
I would cancel both Tuesday comedies. Who’s going to want to watch HE in syndication when it performs that poorly now? Since it needs more than one season, I would either toss it, or somehow make it work with the Friday shows, expanding that block to two hours one single cam, one multicam.
They thought 8 Simple Rules would be hard to sell to syndication because of John Ritter’s death. They said that it would be hard for the casual viewer to see two episodes back to back one before John’s death and one after.
I love The Neighbors and I think that is a cancellation bear appetizer. No way that is its odds of renewal that high.
Between Nashville and Scandal, I have to think that with its lower ratings Nashville is gone. However, if ABC’s new Spring dramas do well, they are both cancellation bear entrees.
@Holly
So that means ABC cancelled Cougar Town long before they announced it as it was announced it would move to TBS on the same day
ABC HAVE ANNOUNCED THEIR MIDSEASON SCHEDULE FINALLLY!!!!
http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/abcs-midseason-schedule-family-tools-how-to-live-on-wednesday-red-widow-on-sunday-zero-hour-on-thursday/
“ABC also did this to Less Than Perfect and Hope and Faith, both of which they owned. Of course, the business has changed, and I think the 88 episode syndication deal is a more recent development.”
You’re correct on Hope & Faith, but Less Than Perfect ran for four seasons and 81 episodes, enough for syndication, and I think it aired on Lifetime for a few years.
As for Cougar Town, the ABC/TBS deal was probably in the works already. There had been rumors of it a few weeks before it actually happened.