CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Brian

    Glad to see POI and Blue Bloods doing well as usual. The Mentalist and Vegas need to get their ratings up to keep going. Merry Christmas to you all and have a Happy New Year for when we re-convene again after the holidays :)

  • Ben

    CSI:NY. I am voting for that show, because, the salary of Gary Sinese (and others) is quite high (considering the low ratings they get, even for a Friday night), while The Good Wife is a program that CBS can point to as an “example of quality show that is still on the air in spite of lousy ratings”. The Mentalist could go either way.
    I also have to write that I started to watch last Friday’s (November 30th) episode of CSI: NY and I turned it off when I saw the torso of a man that was cut in two at the beginning of the program. That was much too violent for me. I watched a PBS music show from 9 to 10PM. I went back to CBS at 10 PM to watch Blue Bloods.

  • Jeff R.

    I say CSI:NY. But they’ll launch a new spin-off next year, CSI:SF (with Eminence Front for the theme song.)

  • Mick

    I was disappointed with “The Mentalist” this week – the “temporary amnesia” plot line is getting old and over used in too many shows.

  • David Howell

    Depends on syndication economics. This is not a ratings decision – if it were, all three would be cancelled!

    I’ll predict The Mentalist purely because guessing that is vaguely consistent with “syndication economics” given that it’s a WB show. Also, giving it a Sunday 10:30pm (!!!) slot is a de facto final season announcement (see also: CSI Miami).

    I don’t expect both of TGW and CSI NY to survive either though. CBS have options for an extra hour, like expanding their comedy time (though this presupposes that both Men and Mother come back for presumptive final seasons), or even expanding unscripted. See, I’m calling the opposite of scheduling voodoo to keep all three – I’m calling scheduling voodoo to cancel more than one!

  • Allen

    Golden Boy is midseason and hasn’t aired yet, so how do you know how it will do?

  • tv#1

    I am sure they won’t do this, but a good 2013-2014 schedule for CBS might be…

    Mon:
    How I Met Your Mother (Final Season)
    Rules of Engagement
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    *New Drama*

    Tue:
    NCIS
    *New Drama*
    Criminal Minds

    Wed:
    NCIS:LA
    *New Drama* NCIS:LA Spinoff
    CSI

    Thur:
    TBBT
    *New Comedy*
    2.5 Men
    *New Comedy*
    Person of Interest

    Fri:
    Survivor
    Hawaii 5-0
    Blue Bloods

    Sun:
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    Elementary
    The Good Wife

  • Sarah

    I say CSI: NY. The Good Wife still gets award nominations so I think they will keep it just for that reason. At least for one more season

  • Joe

    The Good Wife is their only prestigious drama. They’ll keep it around just for that. Plus, another season of syndication won’t hurt.

    The Mentalist is already in syndication, so another season or two will be beneficial for CBS.

    So…CSI: NY is gone. Oldest show out of these and already has more than enough episodes to enjoy a comfortable run in syndication.

  • woody

    @Mick last nights The Mentalist was a repeat from over a year ago.

  • Angie

    Sick n tired of hearing how cbs loves TGW cos of awards. What an excuse. It does worse than mentalist so csi ny and Tgw is ones to go. Vegas also doing awful. Cbs raves bout Elementary and its down to 2.2 in first year. Cbs so desperate for their own mentalist. Dream on. And give it a rest with the Psych jibes at mentalist. Getting tiring and boring. To be honest quite few shows should go

  • Lisa

    The Good Wife will have enough episodes for syndication, and its numbers are fairly poor, so… what do we know so far about its syndication possibilities? CBS is trying to sell it and has had no nibbles? Or hasn’t really tried yet? Or… what? I don’t know quite how it works. Anyway, if CBS has been trying with no takers, I don’t see a lot of point to adding another season of episodes. They want to sell the show at a reasonable price, and producing more episodes with no buyer doesn’t accomplish that goal. Plus critical acclaim doesn’t put money in the bank.

    I can also see The Mentalist and/or CSI: NY going. CBS doesn’t own The Mentalist, right? So that one needs the numbers now to stick around and isn’t doing too great this season. CSI: NY seemed to almost go last season and could easily be out the door this time around.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “there is a little bias here with the good wife ”

    The crazy often see bias.

  • Billy martins

    Here is what CBS Network shall get rid & not get rid is here is my untimely list of what I wanna see/ & let go for next season 2013/14 is;
    Here is my list of
    Get rid;NCIS,2&A/men,How I met your mother,CSI NY.
    Keep;the mentalist,good wife,& CSI for {one more season.}Vegas.
    Here is how the shecdule for next season{2013/14} shall be starting with;
    Monday
    8pm Big Bang theory{new time}
    8:30pm {new}~
    9pm 2 broke girls
    9:30pm mike & Molly
    10pm Blue Blood {new day}
    Tuesday
    8:00pm NCIS Los Angeles {new time}
    9pm Hawait Five0{new time&day }
    10pm Good wife{new Day}
    Wednesday
    8pm Criminal Minds {new time}
    9pm {new}~
    10pm{new}
    Thursday
    8pm suriviour
    9pm {new}
    10pm Elementary
    Friday
    8pm undercover Boss
    9pm person of interest{new time}
    10pm CSI {new Day/final season}
    Saturday
    Regular shecdule programming
    Sunday
    7pm 60 minutes
    8pm amazing race
    9pm the mentalist { new time}
    10pm Vegas {new Day}

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “vegas still gets all sorts of “love” from cbs to be so on the chopping block. several times durinf football this weekend it was in a commercial being touted as the “highest rated new drama” would they be oing to all that effort if they are gonna drop it in a few months…”

    Repeat after me, “Your [Jedi] mind powers will not work on me…”

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Golden Boy is midseason and hasn’t aired yet, so how do you know how it will do?”

    Where have I indicated I “know how it will do”?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The Mentalist is already in syndication, so another season or two will be beneficial for CBS.”

    CBS doesn’t own The Mentalist, WB does. CBS gets nothing from its syndication.

  • DeanW

    2013-2014 schedule:

    Monday
    8:00PM – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30PM – NEW COMEDY
    9:00PM – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30PM – Mike & Molly
    10:00PM – NCIS: Los Angeles

    Tuesday
    8:00PM – NCIS
    9:00PM – NEW DRAMA
    10:00PM – Elementary

    Wednesday
    8:00PM – Survivor
    9:00PM – Criminal Minds
    10:00PM – CSI

    Thursday
    8:00PM – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30PM – Two and a Half Men
    9:00PM – Person of Interest
    10:00PM – NEW DRAMA

    Friday
    8:00PM – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00PM – CSI: NY
    10:00PM – Blue Bloods

    Saturday
    8:00PM – Drama Repeat
    9:00PM – Drama Repeat
    10:00PM – 48 Hours

    Sunday
    8:00PM – The Amazing Race
    9:00PM – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00PM – The Mentalist

  • Just Desserts

    If Elementary flops even further, The Good Wife, The Mentalist and CSI:NY are getting final season next year. No new CBS dramas are hits so scrapping any of these may end up into an Ugly Betty mistake.

  • Holly

    Get rid;NCIS,2&A/men,How I met your mother

    And this is why you will never be in charge of a network.

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