CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anna Clarkwood

    Has anyone fleshed out the idea of 4hrs of programming during the weekday?

    Why does 8-11 eastern & 7-10 central both make sense & NOT 7-11 for both timezones?

    CBS does this already for Sunday & yes they get in trouble b/c of Football running longer than expected. But for the weekdays, it’s local news that will always be predictable & end on time.

    I understand that FOX & CW only program 2hrs not 3hrs & NBC esp is struggling to fill it’s 3hrs. But, that doesn’t mean that CBS can’t take the initiative to expand to 4hrs weekdays as well. I know that means since they would be the only network that they would be tough scheduling wise.

    Take a Pretend Tues for Ex.

    One Option – This keeps the 3 regular hours same as usual but hurts the 4th hr Everything the same but the 7eastern show has to wait until 10 central to air.
    7pm East The Mentalist 6pm Central Evening Local News/Programming
    8pm East NCIS 7pm Central NCIS
    9pm East NCISLA 8pm Central NCISLA
    10pm East NCIS Spin Off 9pm Central NCIS Spin Off
    11pm East Last Local News 10pm Central The Mentalist

    2nd Option – This means the regular time to tune in changes by an hour for east so east & central aren’t watching @ the same time like before.
    Note: I’d not mess with NCIS World as much as possible so Mentalist moves vs 1st option.
    7pm East NCIS 6pm Central Evening Local News/Programming
    8pm East NCISLA 7pm Central NCIS
    9pm East NCIS Spin Off 8pm Central NCISLA
    10pm East The Mentalist 9pm Central NCIS Spin Off
    11pm East Late Local News 10pm Central The Mentalist

    Note: I’m using The Mentalist mainly b/c it’s 1/3 most likely on the chopping block if something isn’t thought up, it really has a strong following with the day & the way late @ night with no guarantee start time, & of the 3 it most aligns with the NCIS world. Though Criminal Minds (IMO) would be a better fit & of course CBS doesn’t own The Mentalist so no need to help prop it up esp with NCIS world.

    I also am using NCIS Spin Off b/c of the rumored/fact that there will be an NCIS Spin Off & it only makes sense to make it an NCIS night.

    There is no need to give 5 new 4hrs of programming in one year. They can start slow with Tuesday & Thursday. Have Tuesday’s 4th hr be a Drama hr and Thursday’s 4th hr be a comedy hour.

  • rob

    The Mentalist. Even though the ratings are better than The Good Wife (at the moment), I don’t see CBS forgiving it’s ratings considering they don’t own the show. I think it’s pretty simple.

    As for The Good Wife, I think the fact that they kept it in the same timeslot, they must know it’s not going to grow on last season. Yes, it is down from it’s fall numbers last season. I think if it can sustain these fall numbers and not drop even further in the spring, that might give them incentive to keep it around at least another year. I would think that if they merely wanted just enough episodes for syndication, they would have made that decision last season and announced season 4 as the final season. The ratings would have justified it then, what’s different now?

  • Holly

    @Anna Clarkwood,

    Not going to happen. Ever.

    The nets have trouble filling the time they have and the loss of the evening news would cost more than they could gain from this move.

  • gerry

    i think csi is first to go. if two need to go, it will be the mentalist. while i am obviously biased by the good wife because i LOVE it, there is also sound reasoning behind this. CSI is getting very old. they don’t need more episodes and everyone’s per episode paycheck is probably out of control.

    while awards don’t make money for the network, the fact that the good wife is the one drama on their network to boast nominations coupled with the facts that they own it, want more eps for likelier syndication and have on par ratings with the mentalist make the mentalist the next to be cancelled if two go down.

    so yes i am biased completely, but i am also more confident than i have been since s3′s renewal/cancel possibilities that TGW will get at least one more year, perhaps even touted as TGW’s final season.

  • Greg

    The Good Wife will be renewed. It would be ridiculous if CBS stuck with the show for four seasons and decide to cancel it before it gets a syndication deal.

    CSI: New York is my option.

  • Chris

    The Good Wife is one of the best acted shows on television. Simon Baker is good on The Mentalist but Robin Tunney is awful. I vote for CSI:NY. Way too many CSI’s if you ask me.

  • Leverage-Fan

    Why are some here ignoring the fact that “The Mentalist” had been renewed for an fith AND sixth season. After I made my first comment here I searched for evidence and found it: Ashley Gable, a (former?) producer confirmed the sixth season pickup:

    https://twitter.com/Ashley_Gable/status/209398410242031617

    If CBS cancel those pickup wouldn’t there a breach of contract or is there some kind of ‘loophole’? It would be a shame if CBS would give “The Mentalist” the axe this season if the writers planning for another year!!!

  • THE OLD MAN

    The Mentalist

  • Carmen

    If these 3 shows were on any other network, I would say that The Good Wife would get the axe.
    With CBS, however,. . . and especially with the Super Bowl this season. . .I think TGW will get yet another reprieve despite its poor syndication value due to a combination of:
    1) Relatively low ratings
    2) Serialized nature of the show

    With TGW surviving yet again, I will go against the remaining majority and vote for the Mentalist to be the one to be cancelled. I think this show has run its course and I see no real reason why it would do better on Friday that CSI:NY has done.

  • Herb Finn

    Not produced or co-produced by CBS Television studios, The Mentalist has a strike against it.

    The Good Wife might be a toss up depending on the pilot slate.

    CSI:NY numbers,even for a Friday, are very week.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Leverage-Fan, Mentalist could certainly be renewed, but that “news” in that old tweet is nonsense.

  • Holly

    @Leverage-Fan,

    I’m holding out for an official announcement. A twitter response just isn’t enough.

  • Dave

    Even though i watch it, why is Elementary not in the discussion, its ratings are around 0.3 and 3 million viewers less than the Mentalist was in that timeslot last season, how can CBS be happy with that, i would gladly sacrifice it to keep the Mentalist on air.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    Holly, what loss of evening news?
    I thought news airs @ 5pm and 6pm?
    And, syndication shows like Two & A Half Men, The Big Bang Theory & The Simpsons etc fill that 7pm eastern time slot.
    I could be wrong, the only show I watched live in years was Idol (FOX).
    Not sure what airs 10pm central (for CBS) but if that’s the “evening local news” that you speak of then 1hr of central/mountain viewership & the loss of syndication hours for all can’t really be worse than what CBS gets for most of their new episodes. Can it?

    I’m also not suggesting that any other network expand to 4hrs, let alone 3hrs for FOX/CW. Even though, FOX should think hard about “After Idol/XF”.

    Only CBS should expand & probably only as a test case on 2 days at first. Virtually all their programming is really good demo wise esp vs the other networks averages. The fact that 1 of these 3 HAS to go when any other network would keep them around is proof of that.

  • Lisa

    I also looked around, and aside from that tweet (and people citing it), I didn’t see any word about a sixth season pickup for The Mentalist. I’d think that if one has already been given, it would be posted in multiple reputable places and be backed up by more than one Twitter source.

  • Holly

    @Anna Clarkwood,

    Should have said “damage” to the evening news. Do you really think it would get the same ratings an hour earlier/later? the affiliates depend on the revenue from the news.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @ALL: Thanks for clarification! Whatever Series will be canceled, CBS should inform the producers early enough to make a REAL series finale possible!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Even though i watch it, why is Elementary not in the discussion”

    It may very well become part of “the discussion” in early 2013.

    CBS has canceled all their rookie Fall dramas once before (2007-8) since we began running this site. It’s not inconceivable that it happen again.

  • Blake Williams

    I like them all plus Vegas……Keep them all and bring back A Gifted Man

  • Carm

    Mentalist and The Good Wife are great shows. They are sliding because of their Sunday slot.
    say get rid of Amazing Race so the shows start on time. Or move them around.
    DON’T CANCEL THEM!!!!!

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