CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anna Clarkwood

    I just noticed that @ 10:30 central is when Late Night Shows start their schedule so my schedule would move them half an hour. Which I guess means that their is a 30min 10 central Local News program to cover the time btwn primetime & latenight.

    Holly, the News timeslot wouldn’t change as far as I know (save for turns out the 30min central transition from primetime to latenight, if that exists) Are you telling me that News airs @ 7pm eastern? I thought that was Syndication time for local affiliates.

    Also, When does Wheel of Fortune & Jeopardy air? Are they the same time as Syndicated shows? But that only goes for central in my theory and I know those 2 are nationwide.

    I’m so confused.

    I went to Zap2It (TVBTN’s host?) all I get is basically a bunch of local programming. So no help.

    I also recall shows like Access Hollywood.

    I realize different networks might program only 1hr of News so that’s why the discrepancy & these shows I mentioned air on different networks.

    For instance, I believe CBS had/has local news @ 5pm & National/World News @ 6pm The 6pm guy I believe was a big honcho like Dan Rather (some decade long old white male). Is it not Katie Couric since she went from Morning NBC to CBS? I don’t believe they have Game Shows or Celebrity News Shows esp near those evening shows. Jeopardy is NBC, right? I know Wheel of Fortune is ABC, right?

  • Melissa

    CBS Scripted Average: 2.7

    I’ve compiled all off the scripted ratings data for CBS this season. All of the seasonal averages listed below (and the scripted average) are up-to-date as of Sunday, December 2, 2012.

    Shows Above Average:

    The Big Bang Theory – 5.1
    Two and a Half Men – 3.8
    2 Broke Girls – 3.5
    NCIS – 3.4
    How I Met Your Mother – 3.2
    Mike & Molly – 3.0
    Criminal Minds – 3.0
    NCIS: Los Angeles – 3.0
    Person of Interest – 2.9

    Shows Below Average:

    CSI: Crime Scene Investigation – 2.4
    Elementary – 2.4
    Hawaii Five-0 – 2.1
    Partners – 2.1
    Vegas – 1.9
    The Mentalist – 1.8
    The Good Wife – 1.7
    Blue Bloods – 1.4
    CSI: NY – 1.4

    Made in Jersey is not included in the list or the scripted average, because the definite ratings data is not available due to Saturday final ratings never being released.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I like them all plus Vegas……Keep them all and bring back A Gifted Man”

    And Gunsmoke too!

  • rehabber

    The Good Wife

  • Court

    Place keep csi: ny it my fave it.

  • Jared

    The Good Wife isn’t going anywhere!..ill bet any amount of money that the show will get renewed and moved to another timeslot.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    Melissa,

    1.4 is the worst that’s 2 Friday shows. Otherwise 1.7 & 1.8 for the constant NFL not knowing when to tune in.

    Those are very good numbers that any network would love to be willing to cancel.

    Partners had a 2.1, removed from it’s regular time slot b4 a spring show replacement & was cancelled WTF?

    CBS has too good a lineup demo wise to continue to just let shows go b/c they don’t have room in their schedule.

    I understand the need to make sure to keep getting new shows to keep the channel “fresh” and that if/when old stable shows like CSI Original/NCIS Original/ Criminal Minds & Two & A Half Men/How I Met Your Mother decide it’s time, they aren’t left with a bunch of voids.

    Need to keep a good crop of Farm System Players (scripts/pilot season) and try out some Rookie’s and let some of them even stick around a few years esp long enough to reach syndication. Mixed MLB metaphors aside, I think you get my point.

    CBS can’t afford to start a 2nd Network aka CBS2. But, maybe if the whole 4hr thing is a no go, how about using their 50% stake with CW aka CBS/Time Warner & ship The Mentalist (Time Warner owned) over to the CW, & maybe even other shows. Wouldn’t it be wise to get The CW to legit network status? Doesn’t 50% stake mean they could earn a lot more if The CW was able to start getting decent demo ratings? Other shows they could move over are shows that are most;y/only renewed for Syndication Purposes.

  • Philip2

    Someone mentioned earlier that the outcome will hardly or not at all be based on the ratings of these three dramas. That makes it almost impossible to make a prediction. We basically know nothing about the production costs and the revenues.

    And then there are all those questions that could matter to some degree: Has TM already been silently renewed? Does CBS even care about WB-owned TM anymore? Will WB offer CBS a very low licensing fee to keep its prime drama and cash cow going? Is there a syndication deal on the horizon for TGW? Does critical acclaim alone matter enough to keep TGW on the air? Is CSI: NY’s syndication deal lucrative enough to offset the production costs and low ad revenues? Does CBS even worry about Friday and Sunday at 9:00 and 10:00 PM or are they more concerned about fixing Monday at 8:30, Tuesday at 10:00 and Friday at 8:00? Will CBS try another new show Monday at 10:00 and move H5O?

    TM is definitely the strongest of the three dramas from a ratings standpoint. Other than that, we can only speculate as to what CBS will do. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we had to wait until mid-May to get the answer.

  • Jared

    There is NO WAY CBS would schedule Elementary after the super bowl than cancel it.

  • a p garcia

    My guess TGW and CSI:NY will be dinner guest for the bear.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “My guess TGW and CSI:NY will be dinner guest for the bear.”

    It’s not inconceivable that two get canceled, but it would be somewhat surprising.

    That would then require either:

    (1) 4 new dramas premiered in the Fall, which I think is highly unlikely
    (2) A drama hour being changed to either reality or sitcom, more likely than (1), but still surprising.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Has TM already been silently renewed?”

    No. No. No.

    Real news like that simply does not stay “hidden”.

  • Philip2

    @Bill: What if there was some sort of informal agreement between CBS and WB that will lead to an official announcement eventually? Weirder things have happened and a lot of stuff goes on behind the scenes before something becomes “official.” I do agree, though, that this supposed “renewal” could be nothing more than a false rumor or misunderstanding.

  • sam

    The Good Wife should be gone. It has become ridiculous. They have totally ruined Kalinda with the disgusting Nick plot–Cary is invisible and Eli is no longer amusing. There is no reason to watch any more.

  • The End

    @Carm

    CBS will never, ever. And by god do I mean ever, get rid of The Amazing Race. The show is loved by the network, isn’t that expensive to produce either, and performs solidly on Sundays. This isn’t an excuse, but a fact.

    The Amazing Race has reached the point where it can be pretty much considered as a flagship program to the network, same with Survivor. These are two brands that will be associated with CBS for many, many years to come.

  • The End

    @JohnsonWest

    Two and a Half Men is in absolutely no danger at all of cancelation, consider it business as usual, this show will get picked up for another season.

  • Raph

    The Good Wife is not getting canceled as its audience are mostly women and in that group THW is doing very good so my bet is on CSI, Mentalist will probably air final season next year. Moreover They will renew The Good Wife just to get to magic 100 episode number (next season) plus it’s a quality program.

  • Holly

    @Ralph,

    How does performing well with women help The Good Wife?

  • Salias

    CSI: NY is so old and expensive (as all the CSI’s are), it’s one of the factors in CSI: Miami’s cancellation last year and has been every season since the 7th that CBS has contemplated CSI: NY’s renewal. I don’t see CSI: NY returning after this season without a MAJOR turn around in ratings.

    I used to be a fan of CSI: NY until it became boring and so predictable now. Gary Sinise doesn’t even try anymore. People saying Ted Danson on CSI: NY will drive ratings up. I don’t see it because CSI is BARELY holding down Wednesdays. CSI is #1 in it’s time slot but not for the whole Wednesday night on CBS.

    CSI: NY will be canceled this year – if no MAJOR turn around in #’s. And next season CSI will be on the chopping block if it stays on the road it’s staying on. When you start flirting w/ 2.0 and below, CBS starts to take notice.

    Ask Neal Baer and A Gifted Man fans.

  • CBSviewer

    I bet all three will be Renewed. CBS needs to cancel Elementary, Vegas, Golden Boy (after all for the past 2 years every shows premiering midseason on CBS were canceled: Chaos, NYC 22, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior). With Made in Jersey and Partners already canceled I think it will be enough cancelation for the network.
    Plus, HIMYM, 2.5 Men and Rules of Engagement are not 100% sure to return.

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