CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • KJ Styles

    Sadly, until Golden Boy or Friend Me premieres, this will be the only topic for discussion with CBS.

    My vote is for CSI:NY getting cancelled. Although I could see Good Wife getting the axe as well but only if Golden Boy gets renewed. Otherwise it’ll get a short final season.

    Mentalist is safe. I can’t see CBS getting rid of it in favor of the aging CSI NY and the horrendously rated Good Wife.

  • Nick

    It will be CSI: NY, although they should renew it for spackle. I don’t see that happening, though.

    What CBS should do for the 2013-2014 season:

    Mon-
    8: How I Met Your Mother (full final season)
    8:30: Mike & Molly
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Untitled Vanessa McCarthy project (new)
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: CSI
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: Darkness Falls (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Two and a Half Men (13 episode final season)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Hawaii 5-0
    10: Blue Bloods

    Sat-
    8: CSI (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: Survivor
    9: The Amazing Race
    10: The Mentalist

    CSI: NY & The Good Wife for midseason.

  • CBSviewer

    Perhaps CBS could renew both of CSI: NY and The Good Wife. They move TGW to Friday at 9 for midseason. Both shows getting a 13 episodes order.

  • Barbie

    CSI:NY stays, that’s all I know. It has steady ratings on Fridays, a loyal following, a perfect pairing with Blue Bloods, guaranteed audience for the week’s hardest night. CBS won’t want to bet on that. They’ll give it a 10th last season like Big Sister Miami.

    I’m betting The Mentalist will go, regardless of The Good Wife. The ratings of both are poor for a Sunday (and Miami went last year).

  • Barbie

    @Melissa

    A 1.4 on a Friday is one thing. 1.7/1.8 on a Sunday is a completely different thing. Friday shows are expected to have lower demos/average. These Sundays numbers are more like Friday numbers. Which would be fine, if CBS had a guarantee they would hold up on a Friday, but they don’t. What they do know is that CSI:NY has an audience that will turn in and follow them to an absurd 8pm timeslot, then back to 9pm.

    NY stays.

  • Barbie

    @CBSviewer You’re confusing CBS with ABC :)

  • prison

    Possible CBS Schedule por the 2013-2014 season:

    Monday

    8:00 How I Met your Mother (Final Season)
    8:30 New Comedy/Rules of Engagement/Friend Me (if it gets renewed)
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 Mike and Molly
    10:00 New Drama

    Tuesday

    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS: LA
    10:00 New Drama (probably NCIS: LA spin-off)

    Wednesday

    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    Thursday

    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 Two and a Half Men (Final Season 12 Episodes)/New Comedy
    9:00 Person of Interest
    10:00 New Drama (Intelligence, for example)

    Friday

    8:00 The Good Wife (Final Season 13 Episodes)/Undercover Boss
    9:00 CSI: NY
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 Hawaii 5-0
    10:00 Elementary

  • Kenny

    How can CBS gauge The Mentalist when most Sundays it comes on at 1030 or 1045pm on the EAST COAST, CBS should cancel CSI:NY it`s run it`s course and move The Mentalist to a weeknight and move Hawaii 5-0 to Sunday nights. The Mentalist fans need a resolution to Red John saga and don`t rush it.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    Holly,

    Presumably just like Sports Programming (not named NFL) esp the low demo MLB gets high Men demo to make up b/c of targeted advertising designed for Men, so can other shows target to Women or High Income Folk. If there is enough of a certain major subset of eyeballs that advertisers can target to then a bubble show can tip the scale of renew/cancel with just that. I’m sure both Renew & Cancel lists had multiple entries but a major subset of demo viewers that aren’t strictly 18-49 but are Men/Women/High Income & hard to get that is @ a high volume vs a show that doesn’t have a major subset for advertisers, makes it easier to pick one over the other. I’m not @ all dismissing 18-49 (even though CBS advertisers already know that their viewers are more 25-54 * wealthier on avg) but saying that everything else being equal having a large subset that advertisers can advertise to is advantageous to keep the show around.

  • Holly

    @Salias,

    When you start flirting w/ 2.0 and below, CBS starts to take notice.

    Which applies to all three of the shows in question…

  • prison

    I meant “for the 2013-2014 season”

  • Anna Clarkwood

    Is there any chance for CBS to change Sunday programming to accommodate NFL?

    I’m not sure why CBS doesn’t ever make CBS 60minutes a 30min edition when overruns are so long but since this has been like that for decades I won’t ask for that to change. Neither will I ask for The Amazing Race to move to a later time.

    What I think would be best is for a “spackle” comedy to be programmed for 9pm & another one for 9:30pm. Instead of 2 dramas from 9-11.

    Now, what I mean by “spackle” is if NFL runs late then 1 or maybe both don’t air that week and those episodes are made up in the spring, maybe even a shorter episode count than normal.

    As far as when it’s “46min” off schedule, one of the “spackle” comedies could have “extended” shows just like The Office did or one could air a “short” instead.

    I’d personally prefer these “spackle”, “extended”, “shorts” air right after the game (the type of stuff that airs during MLB short rain delays) @ then 60min starts @ 8pm, Amazing Race @ 9pm @ Drama @ 10pm but 9-10 as needed, if needed, works as well.

  • Amy

    TGW. The networks don’t care about critical acclaim, they care about making money.

  • SJ

    The Mentalist is dead. No question about it. The other two are CBS-owned and The Good Wife has critical backing to boot. I wonder when Rules and Friend Me are going to premiere…

  • Barbie

    @Holly, but it’s a HUGE difference to go under 2.0 on a Friday than on a Sunday. CBS knows that very well. CSI:NY does pretty much as well as Blue Bloods, 0.1/0.2 under it, most nights. But it’s much older.

  • Nick

    @Anna Clarkwood

    I’m not sure why CBS doesn’t ever make CBS 60minutes a 30min edition when overruns are so long

    Yeah, whenever the football game overruns, CBS should use their handy time machine to go back in time and only film 30 minutes!

  • MJDB

    My predictions:

    The Good Wife-On the Bubble
    The Mentalist-On the Bubble
    How I Met Your Mother-Certain Renewal (On the Bubble for contracts)
    2 Broke Girls-Certain Renewal
    Mike and Molly-Certain Renewal
    Hawaii Five-0-Certain Renewal
    NCIS-Certain Renewal
    NCIS: Los Angeles-Certain Renewal
    Vegas-Likely Cancellation
    Criminal Minds-Certain Renewal
    C.S.I.: Crime Scene Investigation-Likely Renewal
    Two and a Half Men-Certain Renewal (On the Bubble for contracts)
    Person of Interest-Certain Renewal
    Elementary-Likely Renewal
    C.S.I.: NY-On the Bubble
    Blue Bloods-Certain Renewal

  • JJ

    But CBS CANNOT end The Mentalist without proper ending can it? I mean after all these years of trying and failing to catch Red John we at least deserve a satisfying ending. So i’m okay with it ending but please CBS give the writers time to write a proper ending.

  • Dan

    Realistically if CBS cant get a syndication deal for Good Wife its done or they could give the show a nice final season. Its rock paper scissor between the 3 veterans.

  • Masterbreel

    I’m a TGW fan, but given the numbers and the lack of syndication i’m affraid it will be cancelled =(

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