CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • ToXiX

    I doubt Cbs would only give Two And A Half Men 13 episodes. ,

  • Bob

    CBS does not own the Mentalist so I believe that is most likely the one to go.

  • Salias

    CBS will likely cancel CSI: NY, it has age now, it’s expensive, and it’s numbers are meek now, even for Friday night. Blue Bloods outperforms CSI: NY by a small margin, so Friday can’t take all the blame for CSI: NY’s #s.

    But I feel that The Good Wife isn’t in the green either, if CSI: NY or The Mentalist are axed, I think The Good Wife will get a final season renewal + a timeslot change for 2013-14.

    If ratings for CSI: NY, Good Wife, & Mentalist stay at this miminal steady pace, I predict:

    CSI: NY – canceled
    The Good Wife – renewed final season (move to Fridays)
    The Mentalist – renewed final season (moved up to 9PM Sunday)

    If Golden Boy is renewed:
    CSI: NY – canceled
    The Good Wife – canceled (or moved to 10PM if Mentalist is axed)
    The Mentalist – canceled (or moved to 9PM if Good Wife is axed)

  • Steve96

    SJ wrote: “The Mentalist is dead. No question about it. The other two are CBS-owned and The Good Wife has critical backing to boot.”

    Man, your insight could have saved us from this whole debate. Couldn’t you have joined us a little earlier?

    It’s funny, though, that some people proclaim something as fact without any hints, real insights, or even evidence. You’ve never been served crow that you didn’t like, right?

    Bill has never been more right than he is on this one. TM, CSI: NY and TGW are the epitome of bubble shows.

  • psychic

    CSI: NY, because I have a feeling. But then again I had a feeling months ago that Miami would get renewed, and we all know how that turned out.
    Mentalist won’t get cancelled. Its numbers aren’t quite so dismal yet, and it hasn’t been around for ten years. There’s a thing called steam, and CSI: NY doesn’t have much of it left.
    The Good Wife is so pathetic I can barely look at the name without chuckling.

    I wonder why there have never been any serious Mentalist vs. Psych fan battles here.

  • rob60990

    “CBS Scripted Average: 2.7″
    “Person of Interest – 2.9″

    So even with the huge lead-in support and constant promotion, POI is barely above CBS’ average. LOL.

  • Anna Clarkwood

    Nick, “60 Minutes” could choose ahead of time to record some fall 30min episodes. Or hey even is it not a collection of stories? If so, they could shelf for either next week, not at all, or even for east coast split “60 Minutes” in two with some after “The Mentalist” Then again, that was the very beginning/small part that I already scrapped myself from my much larger post/idea.

    My main idea for that post was 1 or 2 comedies that could be used as spackle/filler. Since “60 Minutes” & “The Amazing Race” aren’t up for cancelation even though the scheduling mess & “60 Minutes” has dealt with NFL for decades then “Spackle” as needed @ 9pm/9:30pm would prove the best for the 10pm show to air on time.

    However, I just realized that only works for the east. The West etc would have dead air for say those “14min” of that “46min” ex I gave. So the best case to fix that is that each timezone be armed with old standby MLB rain delay clip show comedy. Stuff like America’s Funniest Home Videos, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers but I’m thinking those cheap 80s clip shows. Noone cares if we watch a full episode of a repeat of those. Since this is primetime tv viewing we can’t use old repeat shows for 46min on the east & 60min on the west but 14min should be fine. Or maybe, instead of say using Rules of Engagement as the scrapper show, CBS could get a hidden camera show into production & then the east cost & wouldn’t see much of the new show (unless say they air the rest @ 11pm) but the west would see the full hour @9pm west.

  • Ron

    Actually when CBS does not have a double header the Good Wife doesn’t really sniff the Mentalist numbers. This also coming from a show that still held down almost a 14 in ratings on thursday night the previous season.

    If Mentalist is cancelled it will only be because they do not own the rights.

  • Ron

    I also believe they would not cancel the Mentalist for the fact that is showed last year moving to Friday for Blood Blood and now on Sunday Night in a death sentence it has shown it is one of those shows that can be thrown anywhere it is needed to get good ratings and be a good lead in.

  • The End

    Incredible that some people are still putting Two and a Half Men as a ‘final season’ for ’12-13′ episodes. Some people have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. This show would never get an episode order so low, and there’s no way in the world the next season will be announced as the last.

    People these days. Would love to see some people get a clue in that regard, it’s not that difficult to understand that CBS will throw money at this show again. It has no intention of ending the show at the moment.

  • victor linar

    These people are not crazy, the cannot cancelledd The Good Wife(excellent show) and the Mentalist(good show) and they in the first 20s

  • victor linar

    Personally I am tired of 2 1/2, Mike and Molly, 2 Broke Girls,

  • ivan

    i voted for csi but i guess two of them or even all three and not becouse golden boy will get renewed just becouse all three have terrible ratings and are not even that good :)

  • Ron

    The Mentalist does not get bad ratings. Last non double header episode of the Mentalist did over a 12.0

  • Jake

    @JJ
    But CBS CANNOT end The Mentalist without proper ending can it? I mean after all these years of trying and failing to catch Red John we at least deserve a satisfying ending. So i’m okay with it ending but please CBS give the writers time to write a proper ending

    If that happens ill personally call to Bruno and ask him WHO the hell is Red John

  • Danie

    The Mentalist is not getting canceled this season. No, it’s not official, asking CBS about it is pointless (they won’t say anything), but this show is not ending this season. People from the staff have said this countless times.

    Sure, until an oficial announcement is made people are gonna speculate, but I’m not worried. And I guess that people who want The Mentalist to be canceled are gonna be disappointed.

  • Ron

    The reason why there probably has not been Psych vs Mentalist battle is because one is a comedy and the other is a drama with comedy sprinkled in.

    what their should be a battle is Castle and Mentalist since it is almost the exact same show with Mentalist being better acted.

  • DenverDean

    CBS could really improve it’s schedule with a few fixes with 10 pm shows. 1) Move TM to Monday; H50 Tuesday; and Vegas to Sunday. It’s never made sense to have H50 opposite MNF. On top of that, it is far more compatible with NCIS:LA.

    I could see CBS holding CSI:NY as a fill-in or they could renew simply because the fit with BB is seamless. They messed with the line-up this fall and it was a disaster.

  • mert uzun

    csi ny is best at fridays. no chance to cancel..

  • Judy912

    I hope CBS renews both ‘The Mentalist’ & ‘The Good Wife’. If CBS moves ‘The Mentalist’ to a weeknight I believe it would get better ratings.

    I also agree with Ron that both ‘Castle’ & ‘The Mentalist’ are very similar programs and I love them both.

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