CBS: Guess Which Of 'The Good Wife,' 'The Mentalist,' Or 'CSI:NY' Gets Canceled (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 4th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 2, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.67
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.91
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama must go. It's virtually certain that CBS will cancel one of CSI:NYThe Good Wife, or The Mentalist.  And if spring drama Golden Boy is renewed, two from that list will need to be canceled.

Those imagining CBS will pull some schedule razzle dazzle (new shows on Saturday, time sharing, adding a 25th hour to the day!) do entertain us with your guesses in the comments.

What's your guess?


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Even with an ungrateful actor, Two and a Half Men is CBS' #2 rated scripted show and they'll do whatever it takes to bring it back.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Brian

    Voted for CSI: NY. It’s aging and expensive. If The Good Wife doesn’t turn it around, it’s probably next (Maybe moved to Fridays?). The Mentalist will hold strong. Golden Boy looks like it may/may not be bear snacks.

  • John

    I think the CSI franchise has run its course. It’s the same formula every time – 1 or 2 gruesome murders, a lot of lab work with loud rock music in the background, one of the techs finds a tiny speck of “trace” that nails the perp. And in a city where 70% of the violent crime is committed by blacks, I can’t remember the last time the perp was anything but pasty white. Another thing working against the show is that Sinise is an “out of the closet” conservative in a left-dominated industry.

  • sue

    I love TWG~

  • Oliver

    I think The Mentalist gets good enough ratings, has a big enough syndication deal and does well enough internationally that it will probably find a second home on cable if CBS cancels it.

    Sure, Simon Baker earns a lot, but it’s still a small fraction of the production costs and he’s locked into a multi-year contract.

  • sally

    get rid of The Good Wife.put The Mentalist back on Thursday and keepCSI New York

  • sally

    cancel undercover Boss,this is the most stupied show ive ever seen,it is so phony and scripted

  • rc

    @Danie “But this show is not ending this season. People from the staff have said this countless times.”

    It doesn’t matter what the staff “thinks” or “knows”. Even if CBS told the “staff” that the show is getting a 6th season, doesn’t mean they will.

  • Matthew Chapman
  • Martine

    The goodbye wife

  • Martine

    Why do people always think that moving a show to a different night would help? If people want to watch something they will watch it. People have all kinds of schedulea and no night is all that much worser then any other…not even friday, really. If a show is flopping moving it will only make things worse.

  • bluejoni

    Hopefully it will be CSI NY it never should have come back this year !!

  • Barbie

    I’ll stand by my side. I think CBS is making themselves pretty clear about CSI:NY. It WILL come back IF The Golden Boy fails. I think it probably will because it’s coming out at Friday at 9pm. So, CSI:NY stays. ;)

  • Michael

    I’d say that the Good Wife is safe. This show is one that will work well in syndication despite its struggle for ratings now. Plus, the suits have a hardon for Juliana. Of the remaining two, I’d say that The Mentalist is a goner. The last two years have not been kind to the show and although the ratings might be slightly better than CSI: NY, we’re talkin’ Friday vs Sunday, so the ratings should be substantially better. Both are likely to be cancelled. If only one is cancelled, I’d bet a buck that it will be Jane and Company…and there is no reason why Robin Tunney has worked for 5 seasons on any show. That girl is one of the rankest actresses in the biz.

  • Holly

    @Micheal,

    This show is one that will work well in syndication despite its struggle for ratings now.

    And this is based on….?

  • CBS loves it for PR

    The Good Wife will never get cancelled until it stops getting all the critical acclaim and awards. CBS loves using it so it can say they have the most “loved” TV show, along with most watched on broadcast television.

  • Dan

    With the midseason news in CSI NY looks dead, Golden Boy will probably flop and once again Good Wife and Mentalist are safe.

    CBS will likely continue to be in the hopes that they can reach a deal for Good Wife. Maybe CBS can give it a final season.

  • bob

    the mentalist because its not as good anymore, i think csi ny and good wife at this point is most entertaining

  • Philip2

    @Barbie: At least you’ve got yourself by your side. That’s something. Good for you. ;-)

    @Michael: Robin Tunney and her character’s chemistry with Simon Baker is probably one of the main reasons why TM has been quite a successful show for years, both domestically and internationally. As Hugh Laurie said, sometimes it’s not about being good or bad, it’s about being given a chance to do good work. TM, Simon Baker and Robin Tunney is a combination that’s been beneficial for everyone involved and allowed Baker, Tunney and the show to do “good work.”

    Sometimes bad actors benefit from great co-workers and scripts. Sometimes even great actors can’t survive on the wrong show and fail to make it work.

  • JJF

    It’s honestly difficult for me to see any of these surviving long. I went with CSI: NY because it’s the oldest, it’s season is ending early, and since I think Golden Boy is toast, CBS will need the Friday death slot to burn off one of the bubble shows it renews like H50 or Elementary.

    Although, I could see all three going. The Mentalist, this time last year, would’ve been a no-brainer for renewal and I’d say TGW was toast. But now The Mentalist has really fallen from grace. If push comes to shove now, I think CBS might keep TGW.

    Although I suppose this is good news for a show like Elementary that would’ve been cancelled in stronger seasons. I suppose this might also keep aging performers like CSI on the air too since they have nothing to replace them with.

  • shirley

    CSI NY stays the mentalist goes

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