Bubble Watch: 'Chicago Fire,' 'Scandal' Upgraded; 'The Cleveland' Show Downgraded; 'Nashville' Still On The Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 9th, 2012

Several minor adjustments this week among them Scandal and Chicago Fire were both adjusted up to likely renewals and The Cleveland Show was adjusted down to "on the bubble."  Cleveland's ratings say "renew" but they don't scream it at the top of Fox's lungs. Moreover, as some note in the comments nearly every week, it's the lowest-rated animation on Fox and it's the only currently airing animation that hasn't already been renewed and production cycles for animations are long.

The release of CBS's mid-season schedule brought forth the usual tea-leaf reading. With CSI: NY exiting early to make way for Golden Boy, some are prognosticating that is bad news for CSI: NY and good news for The Mentalist and The Good Wife.  Perhaps over the holidays I'll share my 1,000 word version of my thinking on that. The short version is the "that's bad news for CSI: NY and good news for others" argument certainly isn't foolhardy, it's just not compelling enough to sway me. I'm leaving all three on the bubble, and barring future changes to the ratings or "catch the dramatic series finale of CSI: NY!" news from CBS, that's likely where all three will stay all season.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Whitney NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Scandal ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Austin Lauran

    If Friends & Frasier were still airing on NBC, how bad or good would the ratings be?

  • DW

    abc will cancel happy and the b and move DWTS results show to 9 and move the neighbors and suburgatory whatever the show is called in the 8 pm hour on tuesdays.

  • Tony ^_^

    Was “Scandal” upgraded because of it’s consistent ratings (2.1-2.2), because it went up to a series high this past week (to 2.5), or both?

  • Nick

    What will happen with the bubble shows and what SHOULD happen-

    Show (Network): Will happen/Should happen

    Happy Endings (ABC): Picked up by cable/ Saturday burn-off
    Last Man Standing (ABC): Renewed for full season
    Malibu Country (ABC): Renewed for full season
    Nashville (ABC): Renewed for full season
    Cleveland Show, The (Fox): Cancelled/ Renewed as midseason filler
    CSI: NY (CBS): Cancelled/ Renewed as midseason filler
    The Good Wife (CBS): Renewed for half season/Renewed as midseason filler
    The Mentalist (CBS): Cancelled/ Renewed for full season
    90210 (CW): Renewed for final season/ Canceled
    Hart Of Dixie (CW): Renewed for full season
    Nikita (CW): Renewed for full final season
    Beauty And The Beast (CW): Cancelled
    The Mindy Project (Fox): Cancelled

  • Nick

    @Austin Lauran

    If Friends & Frasier were still airing on NBC, how bad or good would the ratings be?

    They would probably be slightly better than Go On. However, they would be EXTREMELY expensive, especially Friends, and would be quickly cancelled.

  • danny94

    Scandal may have gotten good numbers this week but i’m positive it will be back down down to 1.9/2.0 area soon enough. maybe even lower kinda depends on how low greys goes.

  • Joseph

    If it were up to our own Cancellation Bear, every prime-time show on the broadcast networks would get cancelled!

  • CH2164
  • Party2nite

    Fox has treated the The Clevelands wrong.. They put it in a bad spot at 7:30and often change it to 9:30 pm.. Sometimes I don’t know when the Clevelands come on … If it get renewed, it will be it’s last season..

  • Gigi

    I so hope CHICAGO FIRE gets renewed! It is my favorite new show. I LOVE IT and never miss it! Great action and good writers. :)

  • Maximillian

    I find it hard to believe Cleveland show will be cancelled after this season. For starters, its 17 episodes away from stripped syndication (which will round out a full 23 episode order for season 4), and Adult Swim is already purchasing some of the episodes and airing them. I could see them producing one or two more seasons because the Turner machine will most likely purchase them for M-Fri syndication on Adult Swim, TBS, etc. and will want as many episodes as they can get (just like FG and AD).

  • Stormy44

    “Scandal will be back to its 1.9s in no time.”

    @rob60990

    Wishful thinking. Scandal numbers will continue to go up this week and when it returns in January. I see It stabilizing at about the 2.7 to 2.8 range by the end of January and then hitting a 3 or more for February sweeps. I think that before January is over, Bill will be adding it to the “Certain Renewal” list.

    My other thoughts on the updated list is that the numbers for Nashville will not improve but will actually continue to decline and will stabilize at around 1.7 and will drop to the “Likely Cancellation” list by February. The problem with Nashville is that it does not do well in the top media markets and because of the title and the setting of the show, I don’t see that improving. I also think that Chicago Fire will probably more often than not beat it in the overnights.

    On the CBS side, I think that CSI NY and Vegas will be canceled but The MENTALIST has a chance of hanging on. And even though THE GOOD WIFE has higher earning viewers, I think that this will be the year CBS calls it quits.

  • Gigi

    PLEASE RENEW CSI:N.Y. It is one of my favorite shows for several years. I love Gary, Sela and the rest of the cast is great too. The writing this season is also very, very good. PLEASE RENEW CSI:N.Y.

  • Mon

    Duh. CSI: NY is finishing early because CBS is thinking of having its 10th season this summer. :D

  • Melissa

    @rob60990

    Scandal will be back to its 1.9s in no time.

    I usually agree with you, but to clarify, Scandal‘s current average is a 2.1 (below ABC’s scripted average of 2.2), and it has notched a 2.1, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.2, and 2.5. Only 2/8 times this season has it hit a 1.9, so I don’t know what you mean by “back to its 1.9s”.

  • SRD

    The only shows in On The Bubble and worse I want renewed are Beauty and the Beast and Nikita. If they don’t renew Nikita I hope writers know early enough to write a good ending. But I really want Beauty and the Beast to get more than one season. Last year I loved Terra Nova against all reason and by season end it was really good…and cancelled. This year it’s Beauty & the Beast…I really hope it gets a season 2.

  • omabin

    A 2.0 in spring, on ABC, for a 10 pm show will be likely renewal, as everything else will be even lower by then. So yeah, let scandal fall back to its 2.0 and it will still be renewed.

  • omabin

    On another note… Man, was last year an amazing year for broadcast shows or what?

    2 Broke Girls, New Girl, Suburgatory, Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Scandal, Grimm, Person of Interest… All thriving to a bigger or smaller degree.

    This year we are going to have what? Revolution and Chicago Fire, but both are still not certain, Go On and maybe The Following.

  • allyo

    Cant help but laugh at the person who thinks scandal will be getting 3+ ratings in febuary.

  • rob60990

    “Wishful thinking. Scandal numbers will continue to go up this week and when it returns in January. I see It stabilizing at about the 2.7 to 2.8 range by the end of January and then hitting a 3 or more for February sweeps. I think that before January is over, Bill will be adding it to the “Certain Renewal” list.”

    LMAO. No comment. :D

    “I usually agree with you, but to clarify, Scandal‘s current average is a 2.1 (below ABC’s scripted average of 2.2), and it has notched a 2.1, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 1.9, 2.0, 2.2, and 2.5. Only 2/8 times this season has it hit a 1.9, so I don’t know what you mean by “back to its 1.9s”.”

    I expect Grey’s to fall into the high 2s regularly by around February and stay there for the season so I expect Scandal to pull 1.8-1.9. I do believe the show will get renewed just because ABC can’t cancel everything. It will be a pity renewal. This week the show got a bump from a highly promoted story. The hype will die down and the ratings will go back down. Anyone who believes this is the beginning of something more is delusional and it has nothing to do with my dislike for the show. I’m just stating the obvious.

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