Several minor adjustments this week among them Scandal and Chicago Fire were both adjusted up to likely renewals and The Cleveland Show was adjusted down to "on the bubble." Cleveland's ratings say "renew" but they don't scream it at the top of Fox's lungs. Moreover, as some note in the comments nearly every week, it's the lowest-rated animation on Fox and it's the only currently airing animation that hasn't already been renewed and production cycles for animations are long.
The release of CBS's mid-season schedule brought forth the usual tea-leaf reading. With CSI: NY exiting early to make way for Golden Boy, some are prognosticating that is bad news for CSI: NY and good news for The Mentalist and The Good Wife. Perhaps over the holidays I'll share my 1,000 word version of my thinking on that. The short version is the "that's bad news for CSI: NY and good news for others" argument certainly isn't foolhardy, it's just not compelling enough to sway me. I'm leaving all three on the bubble, and barring future changes to the ratings or "catch the dramatic series finale of CSI: NY!" news from CBS, that's likely where all three will stay all season.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Whitney | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Nashville | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| CSI: NY | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Bones | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
i hoping abc brings back Hardcastle and McCormick.
C’mon CBS… Why did you renew CSI: NY? Its doing terrible.. If you renew CSI: Miami instead, it would atleast be in the 10 million/11 million viewers. CSI:NY Cant even reach 10 million viewers…
Now that Scandal has received the Oprah Winfrey stamp of approval I don’t see ABC cancelling this series anytime soon. Especially since last weeks episode was a series high in the demo. This is what happens when you give a promising series time to find an audience. Scandal can rival ANY drama on ANY cable network as far as storyline and execution goes. Kerry Washington is perfection.
I didn’t realize Oprah had that much power over a TV show. lol
It’s a shame that Beauty and the Beast is performing so low that it’s already on the bubble. I know the show has gotten a lot of negative reviews from critics, but it has actually improved a lot while a “hit” show like Arrow keeps leaving me with disappointment. In my opinion BatB is superior than Arrow in storylines and acting.
@Robert
Apparently, this has become “drug induced fantasy bubble watch”.
Hee. I had the same thought as I shook my head in disbelief.
“@Robert
Apparently, this has become “drug induced fantasy bubble watch”.
Hee. I had the same thought as I shook my head in disbelief.”
That wasn’t Robert. He’s the “nice” one.
@Bill
LOL! I really should known that.
Really happy TVD,SPN,Revolution,Arrow,Grimm,OUAT,NCIS,NCIS:LA,Criminal Minds and New Girl are certain renewals.I would really like to see Elementary,Bones,HOD and Nikita on the list too. Also, very upset that Fringe is ending.
@Spence I’m enjoying both Beauty & the Beast and Arrow, but Beauty is can’t miss for me while Arrow I’ll watch in a day or so. It really is improving with each episode.
I won’t be mad if The Cleveland show is cancel because the family will obviously be moved over to Family Guy. It would be interesting to see them interact.
The New Normal “has” to be renewed. It’s fresh, fun, and visually charming. It might not have the best ratings out there, but it certainly draws more audience than most of the comedies from other networks. And it certainly has more audience than other NBC shows. Before trying with a new comedy, or a new show at all, I am quite sure NBC will keep its Tuesdays the way they are now, with Go On, The New Normal and Parenthood renewed for 2013-2014. Actually, critics say The New Normal has higher possibilities of scoring more nominations than Go On on Golden Globes. Now, that will be something to keep in mind when making cancel/renew predictions.
That wasn’t Robert. He’s the “nice” one.
I don’t discount the perception, but I ascribe it completely to reading the comments far less frequently than Bill.
@Austin
C’mon CBS… Why did you renew CSI: NY? Its doing terrible.. If you renew CSI: Miami instead, it would atleast be in the 10 million/11 million viewers. CSI:NY Cant even reach 10 million viewers…
Oh please. So CSI: Miami would have suddenly be immune to year-to-year ratings decline and while everything on CBS hits lows? ROLLEYES
Chicago Fire is the real deal, once its audience grows even more it can get those numbers it got last week on a regular even when CSI is airing.
Call me crazy but I see Whitney/Guys with Kids coming back. NBC seems to be setting up those two shows as a project for the future.
CANCEL THE NEIGHBORS
Whitney ought to be canceled, any renewal for it is a de facto 44-episode order and even NBC can’t afford that. Apparently, judging by Nikita, the CW can.
I get that the 2.5 Men/HIMYM “likely renewal” status is to do with production costs rather than anything else, but honestly – how expensive can Men get before it’s less profitable than the #2 or #3 new sitcom from pilot season, i.e. the next Rob or Friend Me? My status for both would be “Won’t get canceled, but…”.
Given the lag time, I suspect Cleveland Show is going to go. Any renewal would have been decided already.
WOOT! Now that Chicago Fire has been upgraded, all my shows are likely or certain to be renewed. CF grew quite a bit out of SVU this week, which is not too shabby for a 10 pm show.
My favorites, Arrow, Revolution and OUAT are all certain to be renewed, so I’m good.
I’m a wee but worried about Castle though. But it has a syndication deal with TNT, so that should help keep it on the air.
@ austin lauran. watch for Michael J. Fox’s new comedy in the fall of 2013. NBC will finally have their hit!