Bubble Watch: 'Chicago Fire,' 'Scandal' Upgraded; 'The Cleveland' Show Downgraded; 'Nashville' Still On The Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 9th, 2012

Several minor adjustments this week among them Scandal and Chicago Fire were both adjusted up to likely renewals and The Cleveland Show was adjusted down to "on the bubble."  Cleveland's ratings say "renew" but they don't scream it at the top of Fox's lungs. Moreover, as some note in the comments nearly every week, it's the lowest-rated animation on Fox and it's the only currently airing animation that hasn't already been renewed and production cycles for animations are long.

The release of CBS's mid-season schedule brought forth the usual tea-leaf reading. With CSI: NY exiting early to make way for Golden Boy, some are prognosticating that is bad news for CSI: NY and good news for The Mentalist and The Good Wife.  Perhaps over the holidays I'll share my 1,000 word version of my thinking on that. The short version is the "that's bad news for CSI: NY and good news for others" argument certainly isn't foolhardy, it's just not compelling enough to sway me. I'm leaving all three on the bubble, and barring future changes to the ratings or "catch the dramatic series finale of CSI: NY!" news from CBS, that's likely where all three will stay all season.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Whitney NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Scandal ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Richard Steven Hack

    Nick: “We get it. You hate Revolution and Last Resort, and you love Nikita. You don’t have to remind us every single time you post something.”

    Yes, I do! :-)

    For example, Revolution needs to be canceled because it sucks rocks. Last Resort is a joke – although it has its moments. And Nikita is the best action show on TV (with the possible exception of Strike Back.)

    See? :-)

  • ann

    I hope you’re right about Chicago Fire. It needs to stabilize its ratings because they’ve been all over the place. I feel like The Middle is a certain renewal. And why is Ben&Kate still on the air?

  • JJ

    Richard ‘Hack’ has made it quite clear that he only likes shows with hot babes doing hot stuff and nothing else, time and again on these posts. We should all learn to ignore him.

  • Scandalfan

    So happy for Scandal great show last week it can only get better.

  • Ax

    Although this doesn’t apply to cancel/renewal determinations by this site’s system, I would think that the musical element of the show may be a boost–if the albums sell decently that is pretty easy money that can help make up for the lower revenue earned from advertisers.

  • Townie

    Television is literally a joke nowadays!!! Scandal, Suborgatory and Revenge being renewed!!!! The Neighbors!!!! Ate u kidding me!!!! Television is going down the toilet!!! Sports is the way to go because every decent drama they put on gets cancelled after a year if it doesn’t have a CSI or is a friggin nighttime soap opera!!!! HBO is the only channel u can rely on anymore!!!!

  • Townie

    Oh yea, AND 2 BROKE GIRLS IS PROBABLY THE DUMBEST AND UN-FUNNIEST SHOW EVER!!!!!!! Wow , talk about shyt television!!!!

  • George

    When it comes to the New Normal I absolutely love the the show. For the people that hate content they throw in the grandma as Archie Bunker type person with enough hate for everyone that anyone should like the show content or not they can just laugh at us gays. At least I have fun watching the show now of course I have prime time anytime so I watch almost every show and even record the ones that aren’t swept up by the big 4 on the cw so I’m kinda irrated Emily Owens md was cancelled and 666 park avenue and really annoyed about last resort but when you start watching everything, something is bound to get cancelled.

  • Barbie

    I think it’s pretty simple: The Golden Boy flunks, CSI:NY stays. It takes off, CSI:NY goes. We need to pray no one watches the new show! That’s all :)

  • lee

    never even heard of scandal – whats the big deal with it?

    since im mainly a cheesy US sitcom guy id like them all to be renewed, but every year a few i stick with get cancelled (S**t my dad says, mad love, outsourced, chelsea?) but of those on the way to being cancelled im not sad to see them go. usually after 3-4 episodes i can tell if its going to be a show on the air for many years (BBT, Modern Family) or im sticking around for the hotties.

  • Helen

    Cancel GLEE please.

  • donna

    Im hoping there gonna renew Chicago Fire . It kinda reminds me of ER firefighters version . I wish they were not cancelling mob doctor l was just getting into the story l find these networks are not giving shows enough time to even let people have a opinion.

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