ABC: 'Happy Endings' Still A Toss Up To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.53
Happy Endings :| :| :| 0.60
Private Practice canceled 0.61
Last Resort canceled 0.66
666 Park Avenue canceled 0.66
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.71
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.87
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.88
Scandal :) :) :) :) 0.91
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.92
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.49
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.10

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The news that Happy Endings'  woeful ratings is sorely testing my rule that shows in their third season will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation because of the pull of the syndication gods. Having been burned twice by another low rated Sony sitcom ('Til Death), I'm still gunshy about moving it to "likely canceled". Call me "chicken". Heck, I'll call myself "chicken". Cluck, cluck!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Fred

    In the 70′s the networks sometimes aired several shows in a rotating fashion. I think it was called the Revolving Wheel. Example: Several different crime shows will air Friday 9:00PM. This enabled more shows to be sampled without occupying many important time slots. The strongest performers would sometimes be shifted to another regular weekly slot.
    The Revolving Wheel should return. Too many potentially strong shows and too few valuable slots.
    I understand that today LIVE viewing is less prevalent but there is still a sizable audience that watches shows when they air.

  • davidwatts

    TSC’s Revenge
    Posted December 11, 2012 at 12:24 PM
    However, that said, Apt23 had a micro-season last year. When it returned this year with little to no promotion, folks are ready to call it DOA after a couple of episodes

    —-

    I saw a lot of promos for this show paired up with a ‘Happy Endings’ promo. They run them a lot during football games on ESPN and ESPN2 (probably other channels too, but I watch only about 12 channels on my cable package), and its cast did just about every talk show on the late night circuit.

  • Melissa

    @Nick

    First of all, Scandal was given a full-season order about two months ago, so why isn’t that on your schedule. Second, get over it, ABC is not moving Grey’s Anatomy; at this point last year, its average was a 3.6 – right now this year, its average is a 3.4. That’s not too sharp of a decline. A 3.4 is sufficient for ABC, and Revenge‘s ratings are far below Grey’s Anatomy‘s, so they’re not going to anchor the night with that lower-rated show.

  • Nick

    @Melissa

    Scandal was given a full-season order about two months ago, so why isn’t that on your schedule

    Midseason.

    Second, get over it, ABC is not moving Grey’s Anatomy

    I never tried to predict what ABC does. I’m simply expressing my opinion on what they should do.

    at this point last year, its average was a 3.6 – right now this year, its average is a 3.4. That’s not too sharp of a decline.

    Two things: One, those numbers are inflated, from a bunch of heavily promoted and buzzed about episodes. Secondly, Grey’s is a 9-year-old series. I’m not saying it’s in any danger of cancellation. I’m just saying that it may be hitting its age limit within a few years, much like Desperate Housewives & Lost have before.

    Revenge‘s ratings are far below Grey’s Anatomy‘s

    I’m thinking Grey’s would improve that, as it seems to be compatible with Revenge.

    they’re not going to anchor the night with that lower-rated show.

    Once Upon a Time on Sundays proves that the 9pm show doesn’t always anchor the night.

  • Nick

    @TSC’s Revenge

    However, that said, Apt23 had a micro-season last year. When it returned this year with little to no promotion, folks are ready to call it DOA after a couple of episodes

    The very definition of ‘DOA’, at least in the ratings world, says that a show has cancelable ratings from the start. So, it’s never too soon to call a show DOA. “After a couple of episodes” might even be considered late!

  • KJ Styles

    You can’t trust the bitch from Apartment 23, but you can eat her!! @cancellationbear :)

  • Melissa

    @Nick

    Midseason.

    Exactly, you created a midseason schedule, right? Scandal was given a 22 episode order about two months ago, so it will be coming back midseason.

    Two things: One, those numbers are inflated, from a bunch of heavily promoted and buzzed about episodes. Secondly, Grey’s is a 9-year-old series. I’m not saying it’s in any danger of cancellation. I’m just saying that it may be hitting its age limit within a few years, much like Desperate Housewives & Lost have before.

    That’s true, but Grey’s Anatomy has held up much better than the two series you mentioned.

    I’m thinking Grey’s would improve that, as it seems to be compatible with Revenge.

    I do think Grey’s Anatomy would be compatible with Revenge. Revenge, Grey’s Anatomy, and Nashville all on the same night would be pretty nice.

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    Neighbors is the weak link on Wednesday, its prime real estate, similar to CBS block.
    3/4 of the Wednesday block is coming back next year, Neighbors won’t. If renewed it will be moved to another night.
    And other shows, Happy Endings, Apt23 had better ratings and lock at them now.

  • omabin

    Fantasy schedule time:

    Monday
    Castle
    New Drama
    Body of Proof

    Tuesday
    Shark Tank
    Red Widow
    New Drama

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    How to Live with Your Parents
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Suburgatory
    Happy Endings

    Thursday
    DWTS (Reduce to 1Hour)
    Grey’s Anatomy
    New Drama

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    DWTS Results
    20/20

    Sunday
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge
    Scandal

    What do you think?
    I think a reduced DWTS would solve two problems: the damn timeslot curse at 8 (since despite the decline, I still think it would pull a 2.0 with a shorter airing time and in Grey’s neighbourhood) and would slow down its entire bleeding. Plus, it is likely to benefit Grey’s as well, it would be benefitial for both. The results show is sort of perfect for Friday and the comedies as well in there. Very compatible.
    The problem is that it would require a major overhaul of Mondays. Had Nashville been a hit, it could have secured that drama-weak night at 9pm like ABC did with Revenge this season, but as it is, they have nothing there so they need two new dramas. I think two new dramas one after the other is too big of a risk, so maybe using the procedurals they have, as weak as they might be, to hedge their losses.
    As for comedy, they should give up on comedy on tuesdays for the time being and just expand on wednesdays. They would do okay at 10 and I think happy endings could burnoff nicely at 10h30. I think that with a somehow compatible lead and no comedy competition it would not go worse than it is doing now, and the acceptable level for the 10pm hour is lower.

    What do you think?

  • sofaspud

    @ ABC needs a cowbell

    My goodness, what a supercilious (and silly) post. Mercedes does not pay a higher ad rate than K-Mart so I have NO IDEA what you’re talking about. And I had to LOL when you actually posted “more supierer”. Clearly you didn’t get to be 1% by way of excessive education. I rather doubt you’re in that income bracket at all.

  • David Howell

    Basically it comes down to whether ABC will take a chance on a new show (or a current bubble show like LMS/Malibu Country) to fill the HE slot more profitably than a feebly-rated but probably super-cheap (for them) Happy Endings.

    The fact it’s a comedy helps its renewal chances no end. An hour-long in the same predicament could be replaced by 20/20 or Wipeout, both of which would get better ratings while being similarly ultra-cheap for ABC.

  • Eek

    I don’t know how ABC expected Happy Endings to do very good putting it on a night with so much competition. You have a show that’s fairly under-the-radar go up against the much more popular New Girl and a show that turned out to be a hit (for NBC standards) with Go On. It’s a shame, it’s a very funny overlooked show that never got the attention it deserved.

  • Dan

    @Eek – ABC needed to put their two comedies on a new night and they figured DWTS would give the shows a boost. Also ABC probably didn’t count on NBC putting 2 comedies in that slot after The Voice. ABC probably counted on those two comedies being good competitors for New Girl and Mindy Project but it turned out that without the Modern Family lead in, Happy Endings and Apartment 23 would flop.

  • Hattie

    I love HE, but starting to wonder whether it’s run its course. It feels like it’s never been particularly high in the ratings, and I don’t see ABC giving it another chance just for the possibility of future syndication…

  • Bob Saget

    Don’t trust the B is getting funnier each week but it looks like it’s dead. I’ll still be watching the final episodes.

  • Bob Saget

    It’s hard to blame the time slot for Happy Endings, they’ve aired 40 episodes in 1 year and 6 months or so, so they’ve had plenty of opportunities to bring in viewers. It seems like people are genuinely not interested in it. I can’t imagine why, because outside of Modern Family it’s my favorite ABC sitcom and it’s probably a top 5 current airing sitcom for me right now. I love it.

    This just seems like an Arrested Development type show, once people see it on netflix they’ll get hooked and demand to bring it back. Hey BUMS watch it now. k?

  • Mark

    I think the problem is not enough people know about Happy Endings for whatever reason. Which is a shame because it’s one of the most accessable shows on tv with an insanely likeable cast and great writing. I think the problem was the way they were treated their first season, zero advertising and being burned off in less than two months at 10 & 10:30 it’s a miracle they were renewed at all and had anyone watch the show. When they got the post-MF timeslot they were in their second season which probably hurt them because by that time people who missed out on season one probably won’t bother to catch up. Not to mention they aired most of their second season on nights with all reruns to rush them off the schedule by March. I think if they got a full first season after MF in their first season they would’ve ended up becoming more of a hit or least a moderate hit. I guess it’s too late now though 3 seasons in, they have a loyal fanbase, but just too many people missed out on the first 3 seasons.

    It’s too bad some cable network like TBS couldn’t pick them up and air all the ABC reruns leading up to the months before they could air a new season, it’d be a good way to give them new life on another network. But I don’t think they’d be allowed to air the ABC on that new network, right? I assume anyway, since I haven’t seen TBS rerunning any past Cougar Towns leading up to their TBS premiere.

  • rob60990

    “When they got the post-MF timeslot they were in their second season which probably hurt them because by that time people who missed out on season one probably won’t bother to catch up.”

    That excuse only applies to a serialized drama, sure as hell not a comedy.

  • Nick

    @Melissa

    Exactly, you created a midseason schedule, right?

    No, I didn’t. That schedule is for fall 2013. I have Scandal on hold for midseason 2014.

  • NE1

    Get rid of Last Men Standing, it’s basically 22 minutes of Tim Allen looking into the camera begging to be famous again, mixed with Chevy and Soup commercials.

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