CBS: 'CSI:NY' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.66
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.89
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama had to go.

With most of the decision making criteria for that choice hidden from the public, the news last week that CSI:NY would end its season in February to make room for Golden Boy tips my prediction for it into "likely canceled".

For the time being, I'm keeping both The Good Wife and The Mentalist as toss ups for renewal or cancellation. However unlikely it may be based on recent history (I believe The Unit in 2006 was the last CBS spring rookie to get a renewal), a renewal for Golden Boy would require another Fall 2012 drama to be canceled to make room for it in the Fall of 2013. I'll wait to see its spring ratings before jumping to conclusions. Commenters may feel free to jump at their leisure.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • jk

    Also, to everyone who is saying that CSI: NY’s order was not cut, I’m fairly certain that it was cut from 18 to 17 episodes, albeit not a very significant amount.

    Finally, I will be ROTFL when CBS cancels CSI: NY (and Golden Boy, of course) and puts another show in its time slot that epically fails. Friday night is a deathtrap for television and the CSI: NY/Blue Bloods duo holds its own.

  • Joe

    I’m a Gary Sinise fan, a CSI: NY fan and have posted here many times how I think CSI: NY turned into the best of the 3 CSI shows. However, it’s time for CSI: NY to go. I’m just not buying this storyline of Mac Taylor suffering from memory loss. I’m not saying it doesn’t or can’t happen in real life and therefore, be portrayed on TV, but it’s just not believable on the show. They need to have made it a bigger issue. Then, on the 12/7 episode, suddenly he’s improving. They really jumped the shark with that storyline and it’s failed. Good-bye CSI: NY. Thanks for 8 great years (sorry, first season sucked really bad!!).

  • Nick

    @The End

    I know. I thought I erased that. I must have forgotten.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Notice all the green already for CBS

  • Davis

    PREDICTION:

    Sunday
    60 Minutes
    Survivor
    Amazing Race
    The Good Wife (final)

    Monday
    HIMYM (final)
    new comedy
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike & Molly
    Hawaii Five-0

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS: LA
    new drama

    Wednesday
    Criminal Minds
    new drama
    CSI

    Thursday
    TBBT
    2 1/2 men
    POI
    Elementary

    Friday
    Undercover Boss
    The Mentalist
    Blue Bloods

    THOUGHTS?
    new drama

  • Dan

    @Bil – You’re right, The Unit was the last midseason series for CBS to get a renewal. I.E. CBS usually has their plans for the next fall and likely pilots while their low rated midseason entries air. Also once they have enough well performing dramas, their midseason dramas “need” to be axed to just barely make room for the already returning shows (2010-2011 season was the perfect example of that)

    This season CBS has the room, because only 1 of the 3 new fall dramas is guaranteed to return next season (Elementary) and CBS doesnt have as many hits as they used to (The Mentalist, The Good Wife, and CSI NY are all in danger) I still think Golden Boy doesnt have a chance because even if it does well in its first two airings, if it averages the same or less then CSI NY it will still probably be axed. Think of Golden Boy & CSI NY as the NYC 22 & CSI Miami of last season. With Vegas, Golden Boy and CSI NY likely done, I can see CBS keeping Mentalist and Good Wife just because Mentalist isn’t doing too badly and GW could use more eps for syndication.

    @The Yipster – I think it would be great if CBS announced CSI NY as ending but unlike NBC, ABC, and FOX, CBS never announces final seasons, with the exception of Medium but the writing was on the wall for that series when the episode order got cut. SO its basically up to the writers of CSI NY to craft a finale just Like they did in May 2011 and May 2012. Only this time, with the order cut from 18 to 17 eps and CBS rushing to finish the season, it seems almost certain that the show is done.

  • Dan

    Ironically, Rules of Engagement was the last midseason comedy to be renewed, and despite it still being a good performer, unless HIMYM gets axed by May, I dont see ROE getting an 8th season (Wow).

    Since Partners got axed, Friend Me probably would have had a good chance at a second season if CBS actually put it on the schedule this season. CBS’s current 5 comedies are doing so well that all will return for next fall and CBS may just have 1 new comedy again next fall.

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill Gorman

    NCIS > Gunsmoke

    If Gunsmoke got 60 million viewers, it was only because there was no cable back then. NCIS getting 20+ million viewers per week when there are hundreds of viewing options is more impressive.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill Gorman

    NCIS > Gunsmoke

    If Gunsmoke got 60 million viewers, it was only because there was no cable back then. NCIS getting 20+ million viewers per week when there are hundreds of viewing options is more impressive.”

    Grading on a curve, so very modern and progressive!

    Here’s another take on grading on a curve, in the opposite direction.

    NCIS averaged a 12 household rating (Live+7 day DVR ratings) last season (12% of US TV HHs watched every episode on average). NCIS needed 7 days of DVR viewing to get a 12 rating!

    In the 1959-60 season Gunsmoke averaged a 40 HH rating. Live. Zero days of DVR viewing. ;)

  • Mon

    @Joe
    Just because we didn’t see Mac struggle with his memory in one episode doesn’t mean he’s improving.

  • Dan

    NCIS is very impressive at this point, especially considering the fact that it was once called “less impressive”http://thefutoncritic.com/news/2003/10/28/cbs-gives-five-freshman-back-nine-orders-16227/6217/ in October 2003 when it was compared to Cold Case and Joan of Arcadia (Two shows at the time that performed much better than NCIS when they premiered in the same season).

    If NBC waited until Season 2 to cancel JAG in 1996 they’d probably have less competition on Tuesdays now. ;)

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill Gorman- When Gunsmoke aired, you only had three viewing options for Prime Time. CBS, ABC, and NBC. Nowadays, you have a TON of viewing options.

    It’s easier to get monster ratings with a lot less competition. If cable never existed, NCIS would get similar numbers.

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    TheGoodWife will get the Fringe treatment, 13 episode shortened season, to get it to 100 episodes.
    Even though no one is buying it.

  • JacobYates

    @Dan

    Slow down there, you said that Vegas, Goldenboy, and CSI: NY are likely done. CBS only needs to cancel two of those to premiere 3 new dramas next fall, since they already cancelled Made In Jersey. It all depends on which one has the best ratings at the end of this tv season. Personally, I am betting on a Vegas renewal, no matter what the Nielsen Ratings may say. In my opinion, television ratings should be based on total viewership, not on a certain age group.

  • Jon

    Why are people writing off the Golden Boy before it has even aired an episode?

  • Jon

    Could it be possible that CBS cancels the good wife, the mentalist and CSI NY. At this point they are all aged or aging shows that really are declining and show no inkling of regaining previous favor they had in the ratings. Personally I’d like to see Vegas get saved but it probably won’t. So with Jersey already gone, a minimum of two more dramas will go away, maybe even 3 or more this year.

  • eridapo

    Season To Date Averages for A18-49 and A25-54

    CBS A18-49 A25-54
    Made In Jersey 0.95 1.35
    CSI: NY 1.39 2.02
    Blue Bloods 1.4 2.12
    The Good Wife 1.74 2.45
    The Mentalist 1.76 2.47
    Vegas 1.85 2.65
    Partners 2.07 2.5
    Hawaii Five-0 2.12 2.82
    Elementary 2.37 3.26
    CSI 2.44 3.24
    Person of Interest 2.92 4.14
    NCIS: Los Angeles 2.95 4.13
    Criminal Minds 2.98 3.88
    Mike & Molly 3.02 4.02
    How I Met Your Mother 3.15 3.62
    NCIS 3.44 4.9
    2 Broke Girls 3.54 4.42
    Two and a Half Men 3.8 5.1
    Big Bang Theory 5.09 6.58

  • Hepha

    I agree that CSI NY is in great danger. But still, it has done a pretty good job on Fridays with BB !
    Besides, with Mentalist’s failure this week, maybe it gives more chances for CSI NY to get renewed !

  • Dan S

    I’m still not convinced that Elementary has secured a 2nd season. Despite getting a post SB slot there’s no guarantee that the show will improve in the ratings on Thursdays. It’ll also get new competition with Do No Harm on NBC no longer getting a free ride with Rock Center & its low ratings. Also Scandal is finally finding an audience giving Elementary stronger competition. It’ll most likely pull an Eleventh Hour & disappear after 1 season.

  • Dan

    @Dan S – No, there’s no way CBS would cancel every single one of their freshman shows, Elementary WILL get a second season. The superbowl slot basically secured the shows second year.

    @Jon – People are writing off Golden Boy because due to recent history, CBS midseason dramas usually dont have a chance. Golden Boy has more of a chance than NYC 22, CHAOS, Miami Medical but if the show doesn’t perform as well as the likely cancelled CSI NY, CBS could easily just ax it and put a new series there. Also both The Mentalist and Good Wife have more going for it than Golden Boy being that those dramas are veterans.

    @Jacob Yates – With Parenthood beating Vegas, Vegas’s order cut to 21, and Golden Boy replacing Vegas for two nights, you’re telling me the show is getting renewed? Vegas is doing worse than Unforgettable and Unforgettable got axed in May (Though it later got renewed). Made in Jersey doesnt count as a cancellation because it’s slot has been replaced, If Vegas, CSI NY, and Golden Boy get axed thats still only 2 slots because CSI NY and Golden Boy shared a slot. If those 3 shows get cancelled, and CBS holds Undercover Boss (Their “Rules of Engagement” for dramas) for midseason, they could still renew both Good Wife and Mentalist, which both have a lot going for it, if one moves to Fridays. If that’s the case they will have a slot on Sundays, Tuesdays at 10 (NCIS LA Spinoff) and Fridays. I don’t think CBS will cancel a lot of dramas like they did in May 2010.

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