CBS: 'CSI:NY' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.66
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.89
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.92
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.92

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CBS has debuted three new dramas every Fall since 2006-7. I'd expect them to do the same next Fall. So unless they have some schedule wizardry up their sleeves I haven't seen before (holding back Undercover Boss won't help!) they'll need to cancel three of their Fall 2012 dramas to make room for three more next Fall. With Made In Jersey gone, and Vegas a likely cancellation, that means one more Fall drama had to go.

With most of the decision making criteria for that choice hidden from the public, the news last week that CSI:NY would end its season in February to make room for Golden Boy tips my prediction for it into "likely canceled".

For the time being, I'm keeping both The Good Wife and The Mentalist as toss ups for renewal or cancellation. However unlikely it may be based on recent history (I believe The Unit in 2006 was the last CBS spring rookie to get a renewal), a renewal for Golden Boy would require another Fall 2012 drama to be canceled to make room for it in the Fall of 2013. I'll wait to see its spring ratings before jumping to conclusions. Commenters may feel free to jump at their leisure.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • helpful_lurker

    I’m gonna be bold (or chicken, whichever you perfer) and say that “CSI: NY” will be renewed. Two reasons, mostly, (first the chicken part) for two seasons now I’ve thought that “CSI: NY” was done and CBS renewed instead. Also, consider that CBS owns “CSI: NY” and “The Good Wife,” but not “The Mentalist” (that one is WB) so while certain signs point to “CSI: NY” being the DSA (dead show airing) those same signs have been there before, and so I think it’s likely (since there’s not much ratings difference between “CSI: NY” and “The Mentalist” – a bit, but not much) CBS could once again go with what they own over what they don’t.

    Now having thrown this out there watch me be wrong, or to the shock and awe of pretty much everyone “Golden Boy” will explode onto the scene causing both “CSI: NY” and “The Mentalist” to be canceled.

  • Leverage-Fan

    I hope CBS is make a decision soon to give the canceled show(s) a proper finale! If they (officially) wait until may it would be frustrating and unfair for the viewers!!!

  • Nick

    @JacobYates

    CBS only needs to cancel two of those to premiere 3 new dramas next fall

    Actually, you’re wrong. CSI: NY and Golden Boy count as one because they’re sharing a timeslot.

  • tv#1

    I think CBS should consider a schedule like this for their 2013-2014 TV season.

    Mon:
    How I Met Your Mother
    *New Comedy*
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    *New Drama*

    Tue:
    NCIS
    *New Drama*
    Criminal Minds

    Wed:
    NCIS:LA
    NCIS: LA Spinoff
    CSI

    Thur:
    The Big Bang Theory
    *New Comedy*
    Two and a Half Men
    *New Comedy*
    Person of Interest

    Fri:
    Survivor
    Hawaii 5-0
    Blue Bloods

    Sun:
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    Elementary
    The Good Wife

  • Max

    I think CBS should end Two and a Half Men after this season

  • Max

    I didn’t to put that I know Two and a Half Men will have a 11th season

  • Max

    @tv#1

    That is the best 2013-14 schedule

  • KLAYNE

    It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that The Mentalist and The Good Wife are getting slaughtered by NFL overruns. Both are great shows and they don’t deserve to get axed. The Mentalist is already in syndication (It’s on TNT) and I could see The Good Wife being a great syndi hit on cable in a few seasons. I’d say kill off CSI:NY. CBS should just keep the original CSI. From having 500 CSI shows to one. It’s kind of like coming full circle.

  • Nick

    @tv#1

    Thur:
    The Big Bang Theory
    *New Comedy*
    Two and a Half Men
    *New Comedy*
    Person of Interest

    Nope. [buzzer sound]. Sorry, that’s not gonna work for a few reasons:

    A) Their new pilots suck. The only one with ANY buzz is the Brady Bunch reboot, which is so far outside of CBS’s brand it’s not even funny. There’s no way they’ll pick up three successes. They’ll be lucky to find one.
    B) Two and a Half Men is not strong enough to be the night’s tentpole. It’s doing fine after TBBT, but it will flop behind a new show.
    C) Person of Interest is their second-best 9 pm drama and their third-best overall. I wouldn’t waste that lead-in by putting it at 10.

  • JacobYates

    @Dan

    I guess you’re right. Parenthood beating Vegas in the 18-49 demo does look bad. It irks me that total viewership is one of the last factors to be looked at when renewing a show. Still, there’s a long way to go until the end of this TV season. Even a show like Elementary, which appears safe, can have a ratings relapse at the end of the season. Not only that, but even a show like Vegas can have a ratings rebound towards this season’s end. Basically what I’m saying is that anything is up for grabs.

  • Dan

    @JacobYates – Yeah unfortunately total viewership doesn’t matter, look at Harry’s Law. CBS will try to save Elementary only because its performing better than any other new show, it WILL get renewed for another year. Vegas getting cut doesn’t help the show and despite having the top 2 rated dramas as a lead in, it cant hold on. NCIS and NCIS LA will be followed by another NCIS spinoff so, even if Vegas upticks, its done.

  • JacobYates

    @Dan

    I hate to admit it, but you’re probably right. Vegas would need nothing short of a God like miracle in order to be saved. I’d hate to see it go in favor of some other NCIS or CSI spinoff. Vegas is a nice change of pace when it comes to police procedurals. Maybe the show could go to a Friday night timeslot and do better there. It always seemed like a good fit for Friday to me.

    When I say “do better” in a Friday night timeslot, I mean that it would still pull it’s same ratings, only that the ratings would be acceptable for a Friday night timeslot.

  • blackrock1969

    This might work…

    Monday

    8:00 new (single-camera) comedy
    8:30 new (single-camera) comedy
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 Mike & Molly
    10:00 new drama

    Tuesday

    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS: LA
    10:00 Person of Interest

    Wednesday

    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    Thursday

    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 new comedy
    9:00 NCIS: LA spinoff
    10:00 Elementary

    Friday

    8:00 new drama
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    7:00 60 Minutes
    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 The Mentalist

  • DKD

    How the indices would look if C3 were used instead of Live + SD. Mentalist moves higher than Good Wife. Elementary ahead of CSI.

    MADE IN JERSEY 0.36
    CSI: NY 0.55
    BLUE BLOODS 0.57
    GOOD WIFE, THE 0.66
    PARTNERS 0.77
    VEGAS 0.77
    MENTALIST, THE 0.79
    HAWAII FIVE-0 0.82
    CSI 0.99
    ELEMENTARY 1.07
    MIKE & MOLLY 1.13
    PERSON OF INTEREST 1.14
    NCIS: LOS ANGELES 1.15
    HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER 1.18
    CRIMINAL MINDS 1.19
    NCIS 1.28
    2 BROKE GIRLS 1.28
    TWO AND A HALF MEN 1.41
    BIG BANG THEORY, THE 1.92

  • mert uzun

    CSI NY is good at Fridays, i dont even give chance to cancellation of CSI NY. May be it can be move to summer schedule, but thats it.

  • TheOnlyOneAndOnly

    haha i laugh at the people who think that cbs moves on of his expensivest shows to summer schedule.

    the show will be cancelled.

  • Nick

    @DKD

    That’s nice and all, but how do we know you’re not making that up to be annoying or a troll?

  • Joie

    While I think it’d be nice for CSI: NY to come back for a tenth season, I think the show hit its plateau quality-wise years ago. The latest episodes seem rushed and less compelling than previous seasons. And not even taking into account the fact that the show airs on Fridays, the ratings just aren’t what they used to be. As much as I’d love for it to return next fall, I won’t be completely heartbroken if I find it missing from CBS’ fall lineup at the upfronts in May.

  • omabin

    I have some problems with the whole “costs” thing for CSI NY. Do the costs really increase that much year to year? A year go, it was making more money to CBS than CSI Miami. So it is not even a question of whether or not it was making money, it was a question of making more money than a show which had just locked another syndication deal. So why would all of the sudden the show be that much expensive up to a point in which costs are bigger than revenues? Its ratings are not that different from last year if you take into account the general decline. I think it could be axed, but it could easily survive. I think the good wife is safe and that it is between csi ny and the mentalist with my guess being the mentalist being axed in may

  • Bob Saget

    Cool so now CBS will replace one crappy cop show with another crappy cop show. BE ORIGINAL.

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