CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • dendu

    In my opinion ‘Beauty & The Beast’ will be canceled.

  • Derek

    At this rate, Supernatural will get 20 seasons… The CW is so desperate.

  • Andy

    90210 deserves the cancelation. Although the 100th episode was really good, I don’t really see the point of a farewell season. GG as an example. The worst season of the series with the lowest ratings ever. Fans don’t even care. Dixie will be renewed for sure. The show is extremely cheap and performs well online. Meanwhile, B&B is pure crap. Even with the highest rated lead-in is a point above Nikita.
    PREDICTION:
    Canceled
    90210
    B&B
    Renewed
    Hart of Dixie

  • Andy

    PS: Those bitter TSC had it coming, just like B&B fans will be trolling the internet all year longer after their show gets canned. I really tried to like that show, but just as TSC, never took off, unlike Nikita which became the CW’s best show.

  • Jared

    I watch all 3 of these shows on the CW but I would really hate to see Hart of Dixie go the most. Such a cute show that has really grown on me.

  • Mike

    I would hope they would get rid of Hart of Dixie. Sounds boring and has had 2 seasons to get better ratings and obviously its not happening. Besides I rather look at Kristen Kreuk on my screen.

  • Steven Leitner

    @Andy

    Season 5 of Gossip Girl ended on a cliffhanger. Another season had to happen.

  • famous gary c

    I agree with Andy up there. To me though Beauty is on the bubble but leaning towards another season hopefully …it’s grown on me …i wanted to hate it.

  • cimmer

    I’m going with Beauty and the Beast because it’s got a strong partner and still can’t pull in the ratings.

  • DeanW

    Hart of Dixie = Renewed
    90210 = canceled
    Beauty and the Beast = canceled

    CW will try to have a syndication deal for Hart of Dixie. 90210 already has it and it’s low rated.
    Beauty and the Beast is this year The Secret Circle.

  • Franko

    HOD will be renewed. B&B canceled. 90210 will get a final 13 episode season (sadly).

  • rob60990

    Beauty & the Beast is DEAD. :D

  • THE OLD MAN

    90210 I say!

  • Pepper

    90210 and BatB will be cancelled, HoD will be renewed.

  • Ade

    I think all three struggling shows might get renewed. The CW usually premieres three new dramas in the fall each year possibly meaning at least seven shows will receive a renewal at the end of this season.
    I’m certain that Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, Nikita, Hart of Dixie and Arrow will all be renewed.

    At least one other freshman show will be granted another season. It all depends on how well The Carrie Diaries and Cult will do in ratings. If they both bomb, 90210 and Beauty and the Beast both will be renewed.

  • JJA

    90210 will be renewed (unless the cast wants to leave).

    Beauty & the Beast will be canceled.

    Hart of Dixie is the only true toss-up.

  • Brandy

    Dean, I don’t think 90210 has a syndication deal just enough episodes but I expect a deal .
    I think Nikita will be renewed for a full fourth & final season for syndication but CW really needs to let it go, seasons two and three have been a failure.
    90210 will get a short final season especially if keeps bouncing to 0.5-0.6 & above a million viewers.
    Hart will Likley and hopefully be renewed.
    Beauty will cancelled as much I really like it,the ratings have dropped far & fast,so will I suspect Carrie Diaries and Cult
    That will leave four spots for new shows

  • Ade

    I think the fall schedule for 2013 – 2014 could look something like this:

    Monday
    8.00 – 9.00: Hart of Dixie
    9.00 – 10.00: New drama

    Tuesday
    8.00 – 9.00: New drama
    9.00 – 10.00: Beauty and the Beast

    Wednesday
    8.00 – 9.00: Arrow
    9.00 – 10.00: Supernatural

    Thursday
    8.00 – 9.00: The Vampire Diaries
    9.00 – 10.00: New drama

    Friday
    8.00 – 9.00: Nikita
    9.00 – 10.00: 90210

  • Honey Badger

    CW will renew ( Hart Of Dixie ) the best show on television.
    Their time slot is against the highest rated shows on TV NCIS on CBS and The Voice on NBC
    CW could not find a show to do better.

  • danny94

    Beauty and The Beast- Cancelled

    Hart of Dixie- Renewed

    90210- 10 Episode Final Season (Midseason)

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