CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • CrystalBall

    How do you think HoD would rate on friday ?
    It could fit on friday night waiting for syndication I think …

  • Brandon

    Well you know Nikita must be safe if HoD, 90210 & B&tB are all pulling .5′s during the week and its pulling a .4 on a Friday night.

  • Percysowner

    I would say BATB goes and 90210 gets the shortened season. The CW is good about giving their veteran shows a chance to wrap things up and have a planned ending. This is probably so when they are syndicated, it will pull somewhat higher fees. Fans may shy away from rewatching a serialized show that is just left hanging. BATB had the lead in from the strongest show on their slate. It just keeps falling. This isn’t a retentionista arguement, but if a show is completely unable to take advantage of a strong lead in it has no chance to stand on its own. Premiering a new show after a strong one means people have the best chance to want to try the new show out. It gets highly promoted in the time slot before it premiers and usually people stick around to give it a chance. The show then has to be interesting enough to hold onto those viewers. BATB is failing in the second part, just like TSC and Nikita. Supernatural is the only show that didn’t fail but it seems to be totally not dependent of lead in, lead out or anything other than its own fanbase, which in the end is what every network wants from every show.

    I don’t know what could work after TVD, but something should the CW just has to find that show. As of now BATB is NOT holding anywhere near TVD’s ratings and falls slightly week after week.

  • Ryann

    The CW is getting new scripts to become a more sci-fi tv network, so I think they’ll keep 90210 (13 episodes) and Hart of dixie along with the carrie Diaries for 13 episodes just so that theyve got something to pair Hat of dixie with and keep the other nights free for the more fantasy shows. Beauty and the beast is terrible in the ratings, I mean come on Vampire diaries gets a 1.2 and beauty get a .5, seriously, its gotta go. Even from the start Beauty has barely kept half of Vampire Diaries demo and viewers. In my opinion, Hart of Dixie is renewed along with possibly 90210 and Carrie.

    Heres my thoughts
    Monday – HOD followed by 90210 then Carrie
    Tuesday – Sleepy Hollow (possibly)followed by Supernatural (as I believe it is the only show that has a chance of surviving the death slot)
    Wednesday – Arrow and Amazon
    Thursday – Vampire Diaries followed by Embrace
    Friday – Nikita then Cult

  • Just Desserts

    Hart of Dixie is going to be renewed because we’re saying bye-bye to Nikita and 90210 next year and they have no more shows left from 2011.

  • were123

    90210 will be renewed for a final season, HoD will be picked over B&Tb if they score the same rating. So, unless B&TB gets up and starts getting 0.7s for the rest of the season (or at less in early and late spring) the show is a gonner

  • Ram510

    I say CW sticks it out with HoD. It’ll be like Nikita getting a 3rd season all over again

  • Ram510

    Does anybody else feel CW might put Supernatural back on Fridays next season?

  • Dillan

    B&TB is a goner.

    I’m pretty sure 90210 will get a final season.

    Unless ratings fall next year (which I highly doubt), I’m confident HoD will be renewed.

  • Roswell

    @ram510 they won’t do that. If a show gets moved to a friday then survives long enough for the network to move it remove it from fridays back to the middle of the week (which almost never happens to any show on any network) then it isnt gunna go back.

    As for Batb If its pulling these numbers right now as a freshman show, Id sadly lean toward cancelled.. but again we have to wait and see how it does in the spring as well as the carrie diaries and cult.

    and as for 90210 its guaranteed a final season, Mark Pedowitz said himself that he believes in them, so why stop now… and i also wont be surprised if 90210 gets a full final season

  • gerry

    i don’t even watch HoD but it deserves the renewal here. its got tough competition in it’s demo AND seems to have a very devoted audience. I think Beauty and the Beast is getting the cancel for sure. I stupidly watched the first few seasons of 90210… its gotta go. I think whether it gets a short final pickup will depend on how Carrie Diaries and Cult do in the spring.

  • June

    What is the point of renewing a lowly rated show that already had enough episodes for syndication? The CW gave gg a short final season and it’s still the lowest rated show on the network. Just curious.

  • Ricky

    Happy to see Nikita in the smileys – syndication cannot come soon enough because this show desperately needs more love!

    The Elimination Game: now with All-Stars! http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/09/play-the-elimination-game-page-2/160888/comment-page-4/#comments

  • Bad Wolf

    @Steven Leitner

    Try to google this : ‘unresolved cliffhangers’. You may be surprised !

  • Bad Wolf

    @June

    I was wondering exactly the same thing. I’ve still not figured out how The CW works after all these years…

  • Melanie

    @ram510 No, the CW won’t put Supernatural back on Fridays next season. They finally have one night – Wednesday – that is working for them. They have too many other things to fix to mess with what’s actually working.
    They need new shows to launch on Mondays & Tuesdays — shows that will be self starters like Arrow was this season, like TVD continues to be on Thursdays.

    I think that with the ratings being equal, HOD is renewed over BATB and certainly over a final season of 90210. Its shown that it has a loyal, albeit small, audience that seems to take schedule changes in stride and find it when its on. This means that the CW can use it as schedule spackle where they need to and still expect similar ratings. It will be a nice fit for syndication on Lifetime or Oxygen once it has the episodes for striping.

    I don’t think that a decision for a final season of 90210 will necessarily impact the renew/cancel of HOD & BATB. If they do give 90210 a final season, I think they learned from GG this year not to waste a fall spot on it. A 10 episode order can be fit in if a freshman boms or at midseason or on Fridays where there’s a repeat now that ANTM is moving to sumemr.

  • Jamie

    @JJA

    Stars on network TV series are contracted for six seasons.

  • Mike D

    i had enough of 90210. just give two or three extra episodes so they can wrap up the story. this show doesn’t need another more season.

    man, really hope HoD will be renewed. this show is growing on me~~ i hope tonight HoD rating will back to .6 or maybe can get .7

    for B&B, to loss more than half rating from their lead in is just terrible.

    i hope Cult doing fine in Summer better than Carries Diaries.

  • MarcJames87

    I still think 90210 will get a final 10 episode order like GG, but now the network appears to be moving away from the W18-34 don’t bet on any future GG’s/90210′s being as safe.

  • Melanie

    that would be “if a freshman show bombs”

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