CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Wright

    For the love of God please cancel 90210 already. I like all the other shows, but to be honest it would help CW if they canceled B&TB and HOD. I hope SPN makes it to season 20…I love that show. Hopefully we have TVD for that long too.

  • TSC’s Revenge

    LOL… on all the HOD fans! Really, a good show?? Please! Mediocre script writing and as hot as I think Rachel Bilson is… c’mon, she simply cannot act!!

  • kalena_henden

    90210 – gone. ratings suck and its well over the new 88 episodes for syndication. no reason to keep it.
    Hart of Dixie – stays. story is not heavily serialized and they want to get to syndication.
    Nikita – stays. does fantastic overseas, WB will cut rate for CW so they can get to syndication.
    Beauty and the Beast – toss up. completely depends on if the storylines get better and how the mid-season shows do.

    Carrie Diaries – gone. looks like a bad rehash of better shows and its in an 80′s time warp with cringe worthy fashion. there is a reason the Gossip Girl 80′s inspired prequel series never got off the ground and this show is going to prove it.
    Cult – stays. looks like a perfect mix of mythology and mayhem like Supernatural and Vampire Diaries, starring TVD alum Matthew Davis.

    FALL 2013 Predictions

    MON
    8 pm – Hart of Dixie
    9 pm – new show

    TUE
    8 pm – Cult
    9 pm – Supernatural

    WED
    8 pm – Arrow
    9 pm – new show

    THU
    8 pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9 pm – new show

    FRI
    8 pm – Nikita
    9 pm – Beauty and the Beast or new show

  • Brandy

    @June, more episodes for syndication is better even if the show already has enough and CW makes more money through Netflix for more episodes plus one more season equals more DVDs equals more DVD sales and iTunes & huluplus ect too.
    Also, thankfully,Mark Pedowitz is a believer of giving veteran shows a proper farewell out of respect to fans(example GG last season ended on two huge cliffhangers and fans would’ve revolted had it ended forever that way)& the money the shows made-GG might be the lowest or second lowest rated cw show around Nikita but it was a hit in the first few seasons,had a lot of buzz,lot of publicity for CW, was nominated for and won teen choice/people’s choice awards among others,had good international sales,good DVD sales,good iTunes sales and did well online & DVr which matters to CW.Gg makes CW money through its syndication deal too.

  • Billy martins

    Here is my option for the CW network for there 2013/14 fall shecdule next season shall be (shuffle there shecdule around starting with The vampire dairies & presumably a second season of B&TB to Mondays at 8pm having they following shows moving to midseason like 90210,Nitika,ANTM to return in January.)Here is how they shecdule starting with;
    Monday
    8pm The Vampire Dairies {New Day}~
    9pm B&TB
    Tuesday
    8pm CULT
    9pm {new}~
    Wednesday
    8pm Arrow
    9pm {new}~
    Thursday
    8pm supernatural {new Day/final season}
    9pm {new}~
    Friday
    8pm {new}~
    9pm {new}~

  • Billy martins

    Sorry*Hart of Dixie Wednesday at 9pm following Arrow at 8pm

  • Jenny

    To me it’s no question that Beauty and The Beast would get canned over Hart of Dixie. HOD gets equivalent ratings, but B&B has one of the biggest lead-in’s on the network. The CW is expecting retention similar to Supernatural not Secret Circle all over again. Oh, wait… it’s actually doing worse then TSC was doing this time of year.

  • MarcJames87

    @June

    Im guessing ‘at the time’ from a business point of view. GG was cheaper to renew/produce for a small slot than it would have been for a renewal of a low rated 1st season show such as Ringer/TSC, and i’m guessing they could not green light any other projects which only left them with that option.

    It was also probably too much of a risk to give Ringer/TSC another chance. At least with GG/90210 even though they were low rated they were the networks signature shows which gave them a portfolio of programming to sell to netflix/hulu and help towards syndication revenue.

    Just look at Ringer vs HOD, both low rated 1st seasons, but HOD cheaper and more profitable and if they had to keep one, it was obviously going to be HOD.

  • MarcJames87

    @Brandy I agree totally. We are not talking about the big networks who can afford to drop any show. With The CW they had to try and bring in some some of revenue which at the time these show’s did contribute.

  • Jamie

    CW schedule for 2013:

    Monday
    8P CARRIE DIARIES
    9P HART OF DIXIE

    Tuesday
    8P WUNDERLAND
    9P SLEEPY HOLLOW

    Wednesday
    8P ARROW
    9P SUPERNATURAL

    Thursday
    8P THE VAMPIRE DIARIES
    9P EMBRACE

    Friday
    8P AMERICA’S NEXT TOP MODEL
    9P 9O21O

    Friday’s in mid-season
    8P NIKITA
    9P CULT

  • buttondiet

    Beauty and the Beast should get cancelled and HoD renewed. HoD isn’t doing any worse than last season and so far nothing is putting it in danger. I can’t decide about 90210 though… it seems like people have become bored with the show and a shortened final season seems pointless.

  • Tessa

    EW.com rated Supernatural one of most improved shows of the year. It’s fascinating when you compare it to shows like Gossip Girl or Fringe who are going out on a whimper. 8 seasons and counting and the show not only hasn’t declined, it’s invigorated. The only other show I can think of that did the same was Smallville. Bet that show could’ve gone on for another couple of seasons too had the cast not quit.

  • RG-X

    Th teeny-boppers that watched this crap – have grown a little and now don’t watch this crap.

  • robin

    @Tessa

    really cause supernaural has been boring and uninteresting for the past 3 seasons

  • halloween

    why not move some of these shows to summer, program all year long like cable

  • Tom

    @ Marc Cancelling TSC made sense if you buy in to the notion that shows don’t rebound from declines in ratings. That hasn’t been an issue for most of the CW’s new shows. They’ve all been bombs except Arrow. The only thing that distinguished TSC is that it had reasonably (by CW standards) ratings until week 19. For me, keeping HOD was less of an issue than greenlighting B&B. It was foreseeable that B&B was going nowhere, yet the CW chose to pick it up anyway. I don’t view B&B as a successor to TSC merely because it’s in the latter’s time slot. I see B&B as just another bad programming decision. I like to believe that TSC would have kept its core audience and possibly grown. But, we’re never going to know that because the CW simply didn’t give the show a chance.

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: Hart of Dixie
    9: The Carrie Diaries/ Meridian Hills (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Selection (new)

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: 90210 (10 episode final season)/ America’s Next Top Model

  • TV#1

    @ Nick

    That’s a great schedule. I hope the CW does that. The Selection and The Hundred are the two shows that they have in development that I really want to see the CW pick up.

  • TVDude

    Beauty will be the one to get canceled. If it’s doing that horrible in a slot following The Vampire Diaries, it’s scary to think about what it would pull on another night. HoD and 90210 can at least say that they have tough time slots.

  • Bizarro

    @Steven Leitner
    WOW, I wonder why did they cancel Ringer? Like a cliffhanger has a matter of renewing a show or not!

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