CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

-
All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • AT

    90210 deserves to get canceled. It has become unwatchable. That said, BATB has potential to get viewers if they can find their voice on the show and market it right. It’s still salvageable. As for Hart of Dixie, with such low ratings wouldn’t signing up for a third season mean they are also agreeing to a fourth for the syndication route? Renewing HOD means renewing it for two years, not one. That’s a big commitment…Personally, I say in with the new out with the old.

  • herpderp

    Mr.Pedowitz needs to clean house and cancel 90210 and Hart of Dixie.

    B&TB is cheap to produce due to CBS cutting a deal with a Canadian studio, so pair it up on Fridays with Nikita’s fourth and final season. Let B&TB run until it hits 88 episodes then cancel it.

    Fill up the rest of the network with fantasy/genre shows. Amazon and The Tomorrow People look like definite pick-ups.

  • Jared

    Not trying to use this as an excuse but HoD does have a tough timeslot but still continues to stay steady or even go above average in the ratings. The CW won’t let this series go until it atleast reaches syndication numbers and the fact that it’s cheap to produce and turns a profit works in its favor. I don’t see this series going anywhere anytime soon. Hopefully The Carrie Diaries hits so it can be paired up with HoD next season.

  • JRG

    Until we see how Cult and Carrie Diaries do, this index is useless. TVD, Supernatural and Arrow renewed and the rest is unknown until at least March.

  • HotLatino4GayMarriage

    Cancel Hard of Dixie, it’s not doing any better than last season, just cancel that flop. (and no I’m not a TSC or a BATB fan).

  • Brandy

    Hedherb, I hope you’re joking,cause though I really like Beauty, it’s only episode 8 and it’s already at 0.5,if it keeps falling at this rate, it’ll be at 0.0 demo by the time it hits 88.

  • Nick

    @TV#1

    Thanks.
    The Hundred and The Selection are the pilots I’m looking forward to as well. I am reading The Selection (the book, by Kiera Cass) right now, and I’m pleasantly surprised (I thought it was going to be some girly-girly goo). Naming the main character America was a nice touch.
    These two also fit the CW’s new brand as well.

  • June

    Thanks to those who responded to my question.
    If the CW gives a proper farewell to 90210, will it perform at current gg levels next year? If so would the profits from an extra season of syndication offset such low ad revenues and higher cast salaries?

  • Chris

    All else being equal, 90210 will probably get a short final season, Hart of Dixie will be renewed, and Beauty & the Beast will be canceled. TVD is the best lead-in a CW show could ask for, and B&TB is wasting it. Similar to how The CW thought about The Secret Circle last season, if you move a show that’s being propped up by its lead-in away, how far and fast will it fall?

    90210 benefits from being an established show, and Hart of Dixie benefits from having low expectations. Beauty & the Beast lacks both of these things.

  • Aaliyah Rowell

    Canceled
    Hart of Dixe
    Beauty and the Beast

    Renewed
    90210 – Final Season

  • Imanol

    RENEW 90210 I LOVE THAT SHOW! BEST SHOW EVER AND OF COURSE BEAUTY AND THE BEAST I`M INLOVE WITH THAT SHOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • halloween

    Schedule for next year

    MON
    8 pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9 pm – Arrow

    TUE
    8 pm – Arrow
    9 pm – The Vampire Diaries

    WED
    8 pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9 pm – Arrow

    THU
    8 pm – Arrow
    9 pm – The Vampire Diaries

    FRI
    8 pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9 pm – Arrow

  • Dan

    I don’t think we can make any assumptions until we’ve seen a few weeks of ratings for The Carrie Diaries and Cult. If those two bomb, I would say that Beauty and the Beast gets renewed. For right now, I’m thinking B&B will be canceled, 90210 will be renewed for a short final season, possibly on Fridays, and Hart of Dixie will be renewed since it is a sophomore show and pulls decent ratings for The CW.

    Renewed:
    The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural(final season?), Arrow, Hart of Dixie, 90210

    Canceled: Beauty and the Beast, Emily Owens MD, Gossip Girl, and Nikita (hey, we can dream right? Talk about a waste of air space).

  • Tom

    At this point, CW only has three shows that are guaranteed to be on the schedule in Fall (ANTM could be summer, and Nikita could air uninterrupted starting in January).

    As such, I think it’s a given Dixie is given two more seasons (buried on Friday, if needed) to get another show syndicated before the network folds, 90210 is very likely to get a 13 episode spackle order, and Beauty depends on unknowns (does CD or Cult get any traction, how many new shows does the CW like, how many of those will they risk launching at one time, does ANTM or Nikita or both air in the Fall, etc.)

  • Raykov

    90210 WILL BE RENEWED… at least for a final season. The CW has had only 3 hits so far – Gossip Girl, 90210 and The Vampire Diaries (and Arrow is now becoming) – everything else was DUDs and The WB/UPN legacy!

  • Brandy

    @ June, we won’t know how it’ll perform next year til next year,.Its already at times performing at GG levels this season though.I don’t think cast salaries go up again next year but the year after but I could be wrong.If it does get a sixth season, it’s cause CW believes syndication ,DVD sales ect will offset low ad revenue due to low ratings-that’s why Nikita’s still on the air-and cause its less of a financial loss renewing it over a newer show performing badly(example : renewing 90210 over say, Beauty & the Beast which would Likley keep dropping further if given a second season and be far away from syndication.But we don’t know the exact financial data.

  • eselle28

    As a sophmore, Hart of Dixie has the best chance of renewal of that bunch. Even if its ratings tank, it’s still more worthy of the Friday exile spot than any of its competition.

    I think we’ll see a short season of 90210, unless the CW gets insanely lucky and both The Carrie Diaries and Cult take off.

    Beauty and the Beast is a gonner. It’s a new show, has already been rejected by most of its audience, and is in a genre where they have several new and potentially stronger pilots. Even if both the Carrie Diaries and Cult perform poorly, I think one or the other of them will be a better second season bet than Beauty and the Beast will.

  • Davis

    PREDICTION

    Monday
    The Carrie Diaries
    90210 (final 10)/Meridian Hills (new)

    Tuesday
    The Hundred (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    Embrace (new)

    Friday
    ANTM/ Nikita at midseason
    Hart of Dixie

    MIDSEASON:
    Electropolis

    THOUGHTS?

  • CoolRanchDoritos

    Absolutely love that Nikita has smilies.

    I want 90210 (Haters leave my 90210 alone) & Hart of Dixie to get renewed.

    I will feel bad if Beauty & the Beast gets canceled tho. But if 1 has to go B&TB it is.

    Secret Circle fans are definitely bitter. I really enjoyed the show til they killed off Nick then brought him back just to have Melissa kill him again. & then they replaced him w/ his brother. No Me Gusta.

    CW does not need 4 new shows that insane.

  • JulieDawn

    BATB should be given another chance next year in another time slot. I know that everyone is going on about losing TVD’s audience, however Thurs 9pm is probably one of the toughest slots there is.

    I must be honest that I don’t watch either 90210 or HOD though (have tried both in the past and they bored me silly), so my opinion is biased – but even I didn’t think I’d like BATB at first, however it’s vastly improved since the first few eps. I am in no way kidding myself (so far anyway lol), but I do think that if one or both of Carrie Diaries or Cult fails, BATB still has a decent chance of sticking around. And I don’t think 90210 should be given any final short season (assuming the ratings stay as they are), they have plenty of time now to still wrap things up nicely for those fans.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures